The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

This is an issue I have with the whole thing. Should I not be voting for someone to represent me rather than a bum on a seat for a party and any of my issues get swallowed up on the party?

Mary Lou isn’t even meant to be the main decision maker in the Dáil.

They will be the biggest party after the next GE ,, After 100 years of FFG, it's time we had a close up look at what SF can do.

We can not go on with the FFG wasters anymore,, I for one, only see an increase in SF support.

While others convince themselves that there is an accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support, somehow ?

They already have two; they just have Independent in for a party name.

Just can't see that happening. How many far right councilors are there in the country now? Even a conservative party like Renua, which was founded off the back of a single issue that had the support of a good chunk of the population, could only manage to get a few seats.

Somebody jokingly shouted at a public meeting with Martin Kenny in the North West:

"Sinn Fein's immigration policy is -Brits out. Everyone else in-".

I don't think they'd argue that fact.

Ties to gangland Dublin did not help as well, it all ties in. Basically if issues that cannot be blamed on "the struggle" put SF in a bad light they have no get out clause.

I think the Dublin riots woke up/shocked a lot of the electorate who are too young to remember "the troubles" etc. Also the political manoeuvring against Helen McEntee backfired on SF. Pardon the pun they shot themselves in the foot.

I thought McEntee made a fantastic speech in the Dail about SF, and law and order. In calm and considered manner.

The whole thing "vote of confidence" etc put SF in a really poor light. It made people reflect, and in my view it was a rare misstep from SF in the ROI.

They obviously thought they could really weaken McEntee like they did with Joan Burton and the water charges. But this time it was a complete misread of the electorate, in my opinion. SF would have looked far better if they did not try the "vote of confidence" game. It came across like a witch hunt and mean spirited. McEntee was then the victim in a scenario that the electorate could see was likely caused by SF "traditional voter" base in any case. And it shone a light more on SF than FG. People then thought SF - the rule of law? Law and Order? The traditional SF voter base, immigration etc.

I did wonder whether SF would search for a few candidates preferably female (less threatening) worked well for them so far, but also those from immigrant communities. That would be the move I would make if I was in the SF strategy camp. Much better optics, no ties to the troubles, no sinister background, non threatening, and a symbol of the "new" SF styled for the ROI.

Basically SF need an immigrant candidate version of "Mary Lou", preferably well spoken but would do what she is told by those who run SF behind the scenes.

They could run that candidate for Europe/Seanad where it is easy to get elected with a party brand. Then could move that candidate to local elections like they did with Mary Lou McDonald.

There is a drift to the right on immigration.

But as no main party supports immigration control, the votes are going to the independents.

The reason SF have lost votes is because of their stance on immigration. I don't think front and centering a random immigrant in their party is going to change that.

The problem with independents is that they cant do anything but make up the numbers.

Unless there is some form of independent alliance that can field candidates at scale and gain enough seats to become a coalition party, a vote for an independent will do nought to change the likely FFG led govt returning.

Of course it will if people see that Ireland is changing and SF are OK with it, the lads with the tricolour/Celtic FC tatoo's will fall into line eventually. It will also show the mainstream electorate that SF are a truly progressive party, not like the parrochical image SF-NI portrays. I am not talking about a random immigrant, I am talking about an immigrant who is a solid candidate a good solid individual.

In NI they are concerned with such issues as "flegs" - not a major issue in the ROI

To get power in the ROI SF has to be seen to be progressive to get votes from their non- traditional voter base, the symbolism and playing to gallery only works in NI - or maybe the boarder counties. In the majority of the ROI the electorate is much more discerning in their choices, swayed by Health, Education. Economy, Housing, Law and Order. Most of those issues are rarely deciding factors for votes in NI. It is two different electorates, therefore SF have to act as two different parties, even though they like to pretend otherwise.

They are the most popular party in Ireland. I don't know if they need to make drastic changes.

SF would tank the economy by over taxing high earners to the point that their mobile staff up sticks and ireland becomes unattractive to FDI.

Companies leave, tax take goes down, standard of living drops.

There really is no upside to a SF govt.

I think SF rolled the dice on immigration. Thought that could be the party with the backs of immigrants and that would be repaid at the ballot box. Might come back to bite them.

A lot of immigrants know that they’ve had it beyond good here. Maybe they appreciate that they want to keep Ireland , successful and functioning, maintain their position in our society and don’t want a free for all as it means they as well as us, are in competition for everything as resources are depleted and stretched….in this life you need to look after your interests….

If I’d emigrated here, SF would be the last party I’d be looking at voting for.

Because two parties who weren't as popular as them didn't want to go into government with them.

Well, obviously Justin McNulty forgot he was a SF MLA because he isn't a SF MLA. He's a member of the SDLP.

I assume the NI electorate at least know which MLAs belong to which party though. 😉

But the overall SF are basically controlled by "SF/NI" in my opinion. This represents a major problem for SF/ROI in my opinion. How can SF find the right balancing act? The ROI electorate want a lot different things than the NI electorate want.

When the ROI electorate have to hear SF criticising FG (McEntee) on law and order, coming not long after the SF Dowdall PR fiasco, and how many of the rioters in the Dublin riots are basically the traditional ROI voter base SF have targeted. It really puts them between a rock and a hard place.

Mary Lou is not a good orator especially when she shows up her standard of the Irish language, reading it staccato off a page.

Speaking Irish live is even worse large blocks of English phrases such as "Bungalow Blitz" on Irish language media repeated with the odd word of Gaeilge, it sounds embarrassing to be honest.

But she is middle class and has more rounded vowels than many in SF, which plays slightly better with the ROI electorate which is why she was the chosen leader in the ROI-SF. The added advantage that she is female so is less threatening, than a traditional male SF representative. A shrewd move by SF.

I already corrected that typo

You are the type of poster who has an avatar from an area in the world you very likely never visited, nor will visit.

Why? Basically because "traditional SF" spiel is high on symbolism, low on anything else. And that is why you are drawn to them. The image.

The symbolism guff can only last so long, with an electorate in the ROI. It is real politics in the ROI not the playschool type stuff that goes on in NI.

ROI politics reminds me mostly of the top stream in school, high quality debate reasoned argument from those in power.

NI politics? It is just a place where most hope they stay quiet. Easily distracted, high on symbolism, and getting very little done. Not a place that the majority of the ROI takes seriously or cares about. Glorified county councillors.

It is the balancing act SF are struggling with. How do SF balance immigration/law and order/rule of law in the ROI. With the NI mindset symbolism and the constant glorification of a murky past - which plays well with the NI electorate?

Difficult.