Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

If house prices are to fall by 30% then we would need to be building at least twice the number of houses we currently do and would need a massive oversupply of housing

If your mortgage is higher than the value of your house if you want to move you need money to fund the shortfall and you need a deposit for the new house.

On the LPT at present it's set for a five year period it will neither go up or down in that period

house prices should only go up that's how it works

Where are people getting 30%drops and IMO the way the game is rigged here prices will not be dropping for at least another 10 years and that's only if our population size stopped growing for the next 10 years and the builders built maybe double the amount of houses than what is currently being built. The way this works is any threat to prices builders pull back and wait for demand through emigration which is not easing any time soon. Also people are coding themselves if they think homeowners want to see prices drop there may be a small % but in the main why would you want an asset to drop in price when it would impact on the size of the inheritance left behind for kids/grand kids and other family members. Even the world wide shocks over the last number of years Brexit, Covid, Ukraine as well as the recent ECB interest rate increases prices have still gone up with the exception of a modest drop at the start of 2020 and then it went gang busters again. Throw in our archaic laws about repossession that we dont really do its hard to see where the supply will be coming from. I really thought modular homes would of ticked up by now but that stream of supply seems to have gone very quiet I wonder it the construction lobby have been a flea in the ear of government. Ireland is not your typical market our country is seen as a beacon that others from the outside looking in can make a decent living or live on a very generous welfare handouts and their kids get a relatively good level of education. Until the world catches up or we decide to cut welfare or our education system hits the skids we are going to see the numbers coming here increase and more demand and a continued under supply of houses = higher prices.

modular homes were built here without much fuss for ukrainians. always wondered why they werent ever used (even as a temp solution) for say single people on housing lists or homeless etc. sure someone here will know more than me

Sounds like non-buyers remorse. You are now looking for more intervention to bring the price down.

One person gets in, gets a job, then calls the whole family.

I have seen it couple of times. These people are in no position to support their family with their Irish salary. Who will pick the tab I wonder? Hmmmm. State will pay for their house by hap or similar. Then we will wonder why state provide vital services for the citizens who paid in the coffers forever

What timespan are people fitting this 30% drop in house prices into?

I don't disagree with anything you've written. I was actually thinking about how slow a burn the 30% would need to be in order to not to wreck the lending criteria of banks.

Imagine the scenario where from 2026-2027 there is a 10% drop in house prices and Taoiseach Mary Lou McDonald says "We are on course" etc. In this scenario, with the stated goal being another 20% drop, how many 90% mortgages are banks going to hand out?

That second year, where the former €430,000 home is now worth €390,000 with legislation lined up to help bring it down further, would be very interesting.

It is easy to say "they can take the negative equity on the chin" to a subset of homeowners, but I can see it impacting borrowers, too, if the reduction in prices was fast. There's a whole other story if it is too slow!

What legislation will result in house price drop? Sorry bit aloof on this topic

In an inflationary environment prices can correct without falling

I believe affordability improved a little last year

Rents is where the real damage is at

We have absolutely zero spare labour capacity in the construction industry in Ireland at present. And billions of euros worth of government projects waiting to go, with funding available, that just need that very capacity.

If the private sector reduced supply (which may or may not happen at a significant level, exact profit margins in the industry at present are murky at best) the government could and would absolutely step in to hoover up the spare capacity and put it to use.

There have been plenty of measures discussed repeatedly in this very thread that would reduce property prices without requiring a general recession.

Remove the demand side incentives like the FHS instantly. Provide incentives/disincentives to move private sector construction workers from commercial to housing. Remove the tax breaks for REITs, and increase the stamp duty for multiple-property at a time purchases. Massively expand our training&apprentice program, and then use these workers over time to increase housing supply. etc

We mightn't get all the way to 30% (thats just the figure under discussion because it a level of drop which polls show most home owners support), but we'd certainly make a dent in things.