A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

This isn't really indicating the thread had the right idea at all. Continuously predicting a global recession for nearly two years. Doesn't look likely to happen this year. So eventually being right is more a stopped clock scenario.

Inflation dropping off is probably gonna have more positive impacts as the the year goes on.

An escalation of the war in Ukraine spilling over in to Europe or an escalation in the Middle East could potentially greatly impact the world economy, The Magnificent 7 in the Nasdaq look to be driving the bulk of stock market gains over last couple of years and also could potentially be storing up trouble for the future, as mentioned above, the broken clock analogy will eventually be proven true with the Economy and any of the 3 above could be the catalyst with the Ukraine war spilling over into Europe being the favourite IMO at this moment in time.

...depends what economists you ask!

tis indeed, gdp would probably rise for some, and if we managed to survive it, would probably collapse into oblivion, so tis all good!

I am giving the 3 most likely scenarios where the economy could take a major hit, There might be a 10% chance of Russian aggression spilling over in to Europe, unlikely to happen but if it did it would most certainly be bad for the World Economy outside of the Industries that typically benefit from war, We haven't seen the disruption in the Red Sea have much impact on the world economy yet so we would have to be hopeful that any escalation in the Middle East could be contained, the magnificent 7 valuations look monstrous, the impact of a market crash because of them would be monumental.

That broken clock analogy isn't something we can avoid, its how we respond to these crisis that matters most, the lessons from the last crash were instrumental in getting us through the pandemic which had the potential to be far worse than the last recession.

I'll have a stab at - Commercial real estate tied to shadow banking and small regional US banks with an outside chance of an oil/gas crisis.

Could also add in a mass influx of immigrants to Europe this year causing a bit of civil unrest if things are not sorted in the middle east.

I have been waiting for a recession since 2018 ! I predicted money printing during covid, rising interest rates, high inflation, businesses shutting. Most of this is absorbed by high wages over 21-23 and some of it has been offset by job losses in tech. Amount of cash people have is mind boggling. Add on top of it - war in ukraine. A global event is the only way things go down south from here else this is the bottom i would say followed by 5-6 years of stagnancy. Asset prices are at peak and interest rates are at peak ! Interesting times @:)

UK in Recession - GUARDIAN

It is slowing down now.

GDP growth according to IMF for 2024.

That junior could be more wealthy than you depending on his circumstances it’s not just wages.

As for a house for 150k 6 years ago the same house is definitely not selling for 400k today.

Depends on the house in question and if I thought it was worth the money. As said previously if it is selling for 400k today then it definitely is not the house that was selling for 150k 6 years ago.unless serious money used to expand and upgrade it.

And for what it’s worth I don’t believe it’s the same mantra as 2006…how many people are buying off plans with the intention of flipping the house for a profit by the time it is built….totally different market today but a lot can’t see that are waiting to buy cheap and spending everyday wishing for a economic crash thinking that they are special and won’t be impacted but everyone else will and they will make a killing.

its no different to getting the timing wrong when taking a short position but rather cutting looses they keep paying the margin until they realise that even if it happened they still loose because of the cost of keeping the short open.

Maybe he saved lots in last 3 years ? You would be surprised with cash ppl have saved since covid.