Dee Forbes banging the RTE TV licence drum again 60m uncollected fee *poll not working - pl ignore*

Saw this article earlier. She is totally incapable of handling a full minstery. It tell a story that some in the Green party wanted to replace Eamon with her. She will probably be toast in a couple of weeks.

She is obviously not listening when she is being briefed by official's and has incapable people close to her. She decided to hang her RTE chairperson out to dry on Thursday night without checking her facts.

The Greens have been a disaster in this government. Eamon sitting and slowing down critical road projects. We could have an election within weeks

Which is the very reason why Martin won't go... FF/Fg could not risk an election right now. The will dig deep. Express confidence which they have already and ride out the storm. God knows this government are good at that.

Time enough for an election. Let's get the Locals and Euros done first. They should throw the cat amongst the pigeons. The government need to reap what they have sown. I really want to see how they handle the license fee non payments.

My next license fee reminder is going straight to Catherine Martin with a note on it - Get my previous license fees off O'Keefe and Coveney first.

If she resigns or is pushed the government is finished. What TD in the government parties wants to deal with RTE? Health, Housing and now RTE are going to be avoided.

There's no way in a million years this government will call an election before this year's budget.

I hope you are right… just so used to them of sticking it out with the mantra ‘lessons have been learned’ we move on. I hope it brings them all down.

One of the other Green nobodies.

Victoria Mary Clark?

I think you are discounting internal green party politics. Ryan was only returned as leader by a whisker when his leadership was challenged and Martin was the challenger. I would expect that if Martin was ousted or sacked by Ryan, she would take a few greens with her and possibly result in the Government being in the position of losing a confidence vote. The lack of discipline in the Greens will make it hard to get rid of her if she doesn't want to go.

Think that some of the Greens who supported her for the leadership are no longer Greens. There was an influx of Labour and "issues" types who joined the Greens after Labour imploded in 2016 and they were more to the Left than the typical Green. Unlike the continental Greens that draw support from the Left, the Irish Greens became almost FG on bikes to some extent in that they were drawing support from predominantly Middle Class voters who didn't want to vote FF/FG and certainly didn't want to vote Labour. After the water melon (Green on the outside and Labour on the inside) coup failed, there was another split in the Greens with some of the "issues" types splitting to form Green Left (which hasn't been heard from since).

People tend to underestimate Ryan but an FFer once said that he'd be a good FF minister. The focus now is on Martin's incompetence and it would be stupid for Ryan to back her. She's an over-promoted schoolteacher/TD and is completely out of her depth in dealing with a dysfunctional organisation like RTE. It would require her or her advisors to be forensic accountants or at least have some basic business expertise.

Could it cause an election? It depends on the optics. If the fiasco continues to impact the government, there wil be moves to get rid of her. The one to watch is Eamon Ryan. If he supports her then there's a problem. If he does not and she is replaced by another Green, the chance of a GE is reduced. The government has a lot of incompetent ministers who should never have been given a portfolio (McEntee, O'Gorman, Martin etc). She is taking some of the heat off the government on the Immigration and Housing issues. The next opinion poll due is the Sindo/Ireland Thinks one and a lot of government TDs will be watching it closely. FG already has about a third of its sitting TDs not contesting the next GE and on current polling, FFG is likely to lose seats. A GE is the last thing that any government party wants on this issue and if avoiding a GE means sacrificing Martin, then she's history. Of course, some of the FFG politicians may not be rational actors and might go for a GE anyway.

Regards...jmcc

There's a strong ideological element to some of the Green vote so they might retain about two seats on current polling. Many of the current TDs only got elected on transfers. The Greta Thunberg hysteria also helped in 2020 and a lot of gullible people thought that they were doing the right thing in voting for the Greens. SF transfers also helped elect some Greens. The dynamics of 2020 won't be at play and SF, and FF/FG, will be working hard to keep transfers within their candidates. This is likely to cause a Labour 2016 situation for some parties that are almost completely dependent on transfers.

Martin's seat could be safe though her incompetence is astounding. She really is county councillor level at best. The real blame for all this lies not with the Greens but with Mehole Martin and Varadkar. They were so desperate to get into government and block SF that they effectively gave the Greens everything they wanted. They would have preferred to have an FF/FG/Lab government but Labour has been demolished and the Greens won more seats in the last GE. It wouldn't be surprising to see some ructions in the Dail if Martin refuses to answer questions.

Regards...jmcc

There will certainly be some resignations if SF get into government. Apart from the Turbidy payments scandal kicking things off, a competent minister would have dealt with things quickly. She is not a competent minister. Bacik was getting a lot of coverage from RTE last week but now the focus has shifted to SF. The print media is also beginning to shift to an anti-Martin position and that won't have gone unnoticed by FFG. It wouldn't be surprising if Martin's resignation speech is being drafted.

Regards...jmcc

Listening to the Pat Kenny show, Anton Savage is standing in. I didn't get the name of the person he had on talking about this but they were scathing in the how Martin has handled this.

Who else will it be? Scum Fein are losing popularity

I think the most likely is SF FF minority government.

FG will be on the opposition benches.

Small Parties and Independents are on 34% based on latest poll but bringing two or three of them into government won’t be easy. Individual Green Party TD’s voted against the government when it came to things they didn’t like. Add another party or two with potential rogue elements and you would need the patience of a saint to be corralling them through the voting lobby each week.

If it didn’t have serious financial consequences, a government with SF Labour SD PBP and a couple of independents as ministers…..now that would be fun to watch.