Are we excited yet?

100%. Have paid little interest to crypto for a long time now, but things are starting to get interesting again. Been trying to do a bit of home work on my altcoin exit plan, and the majority of it is based off something called the Pi Cycle Indicator (which historically has been pretty good at calling the BTC high, but no so much ALT hights) https://coinank.com/indexdata/piCycleTop

That, and BTC dominance. Basically, (as my bags are mostly ADA, LINK and SOL L2's) once the Pi Cycle indicator is pointing towards a top, i'll flog 50% and make it up as we go from there. Gonna be very interesting for the next while for sure, especially if we hit BTC ATH before halving...

Interesting chart, I've no idea how to read it,would you be able to give a very brief explanation if you wouldn't mind as to when this indicates the next best "sell" time. Thanks

The prediction I’m looking mostly at is the theory that all on risk assets are heading for a blow off top, meanwhile the economy deteriorates forcing the fed to cut rates which traditionally kills the risk on markets.

Correlation is that gold (risk off) looks like it’s preparing for a bull run

Guess we will see soon enough. New all time high this week I’m hoping

Have a look at Bitcoin versus the Argentine Peso for the last year. Crazy stuff. Up over 12 times.

I wonder if you could make money off the back of 'trending' coins by searching what's trending on the major aggregrators (CMC, Gecko, CDC, Coin Codex etc)... just as a recent example PEPE has 5x'd since it started trending a week or so ago. Could be high risk, but high reward. I know it's a sh*t meme coin but lots of people are looking for the next Shib / Doge and most people are in this to strategically make quick gains.

Is there a way to see what cryptos are trending on Twitter/other socials?

Wow... just a quick look at some of the google search trends in some of the most populated countries.. at least 30% of the top 10 google searches are relating to crypto. It's going to be an interesting month/year to say the least. With national elections being held in over 60 countries and institutional skepticism quite high/inflation rampant, I can see more capital flooding into crypto in the short term anyway. Not investment advice... just a hopeful hunch of a good year ahead for those involved. I'll be selling around 25% of what I have shortly after the halving anyway...still one of my regrets not doing so after the last bull run but thankfully it's come back around again.

It's not bitcoin I'm uncomfortable with. It's the entire market. Feels too euphoric.

I've been holding Bitcoin for 3 years and I think it will only grow long term. Absolutely no doubt. But this rally won't continue much longer.

No problem. If the chart/model is reliable, the next time the 2 lines shown touch, even briefly, it will indicate the BTC market has overheated, the top’s been reached, and it’s time to sell some or most of your BTC.

For ALTs it’s a bit different, as they tend to lag. So when this chart is indicating sell BTC, this could well be that capital is flowing out of BTC into ALTs for one last blow off top, before the whole lot plummets.

But, it’s only one indicator, so you’d want to taking a look at things like BTC dominance, amounts moving ON/OFF exchanges, etc. There’s too many indicators to keep track of though, so I’m picking about 3 or 4 I’ll pay proper attention to, and using them to guide me 🤞

Risky, given that everything could go parabolic with BTC hitting a new ath

68k now. Only a matter of time now surely

33% Capital gains tax same as shares. You declare it all but the first 1270 is tax free. After that it's the normal 33%rate.

Safe strategy more like, nothing wrong with taking profits.

True, we all may have different strategies too, some get in and out multiple times, and others just buy as low as they can and try time the top as best they can to exit.

Selling now is not at all stupid. Let's come back in 3 months and review. The economy is not strong. Even Gold is rallying ffs.

The narrative that flows with BTC is that the dollar is in decline, I’m of the belief that’s why Blackrock and others are here now, people really starting to realise how bad it is to hold cash, all assets are better than the declining paper in the pocket, ffs even doge and shib have better potential than cash.