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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • #2302
    Hawkeye123
    Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860557#Comment_121860557

    I actually agree with a lot of this. But about the multinationals, I did not mean to say they will all pull out or downsize but if a recession were to cause a contraction of say 5% in the multinational sector in Ireland, and if that translated to a spike in mortgage defaults, and if those defaults resulted in a drop in house prices, then we would have a small number of mortgage holders in negative equity. If some of those people were to go on a mortgage payment strike, house prices would fall a little further.

    This scenario would not be so bad if that was all that happened and if the multinational sector recovered and carried on, then house prices would resume their upward tradjectory.

    But the economy of the western world and Europe in particular is facing some very serious challenges. For example, a couple of days ago, Powell in the US wanted to reassure investors and mortgage holders that interest rates would still be cut this year. Immediately the US dollar lost value which means US inflation will rise, making it harder to cut interest rates. Then there are the geopolitical challenges to global trade and the fact that a Trump victory would result in some of the multinationals here, moving their opperations to the US.

    We`ll see what happens.



  • #2303
    BlueSkyDreams
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,104 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860529#Comment_121860529

    Indeed. Their odds factor in risk they are already exposed to from previous bets, when SF were riding high.

    I dont know if the odds factor in likley trajectories of voting intent, which would currently see SF on a downward trend.



  • #2304
    Geuze
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,836 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121861610#Comment_121861610


    Bear in mind that the 300k applies only to 4,000 or 8,000 new houses to be built per year, according to the SF plan.



  • #2305
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121862079#Comment_121862079

    THose 4-8k the ones that people think will be free houses and thats why they are voting for them :-)



  • #2306
    BlueSkyDreams
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,104 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121862079#Comment_121862079

    They have also said that average prices in Dublin should be 300k.

    4k homes or whatever can be priced at any value, since they can be purchased/owned by the govt and sold as affordable at whatever price the govt decide.

    Yet the prices those 4k sell at have almost zero bearing on the macro level price for the other 2.1 million homes in the state.

    Its just typical SF populist nonesense.



  • #2307
    Hawkeye123
    Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Well, today's indo says a court has just forced a vulture fund to give an insolvent homebuyer a long term mortgage.

    If bad debts are now a worse investment than before, their value will fall further.

    Yes, financialization is an issue but it has QE at it's root. You are right, it will continue because it looks like the central banks are going to surrender to inflation.

    Gold may be the only way young people can hope to gain home ownership now.



  • #2308
    Hawkeye123
    Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    The reason the central bank expects house completions to hit 35000 this year is because that is less than what is required. Ensuring fewer houses than required get completed is government policy. They think that will keep house prices rising in perpetuity.

    They are wrong, it won't.



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