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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans in OP**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    What the poster actually said: "there are more viable suspects than Bailey"

    Did bjsc ever surmise that the Bailey theory is likely to have occurred? I don't remember reading anything to that effect.

    How that, in your opinion, leaves Bailey as the likely murderer makes zero sense.

    There are many cases in the crime annals where serious violence has been inflicted on the victim, without any long or real knowledge of them, so there is no basis to make that as a statement of fact.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    As usual I have no idea what point you are trying to make ?

    Who are these more viable suspects ?

    Is this a comment bjsc made ?

    If the alternative suspects are not named or the statement clarified the comment doesn't stand up to scrutiny



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    So you're citing the poster as an expert when it suits you e.g. "the stranger killer and the hired hitman theories are not likely to have occurred."

    But when they state there are more viable suspects you disregard that because ... reasons... because it contradicts the opinion you have of Bailey regardless.

    That is an entirely self-contradictory argument.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,243 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    That's what I was trying to ask bjsc.

    If they thought there were more viable suspects tell us who and why.

    But they are not going to be doing that.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The mods won't allow anyone including @bjsc to name alleged suspects for libel reasons as it would be both stupid and prejudicial



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    I overlooked that statement but am happy to be corrected if true

    Bjsc has stated she won't be implicating anyone personally which is fair enough

    However bjsc would have to provide some clarity on that statement for it to hold water

    In the meantime the 2 main theories are still the local gate dispute and the prime suspect bailey



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It is stated here:

    What I have said is that, given the known facts, there are more viable suspects than Bailey. Particularly if you allow for the possibility of a morning killing.

    I don't see how that can be spun as leaving Bailey as the most likely suspect. More viable suspects e.g. Person or Person(s) unknown are therefore most likely.


    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,243 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    But people are naming Alfie Lyons and Shirley Foster here as a suspect for years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Alfie is dead, as are several others involved in the case. And in many if not most such discussions, it has been presented not as a I think Alfie did it but here is how easy it is to make a case against someone with circumstantial evidence.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    You're pretty much agreeing with me but you can't see it

    More viable suspects in a morning killing points to the local dispute theory

    That leaves bailey and the local dispute as the main theories

    Bailey remains the most likely as the case file points to him

    Which is what I said



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    That's a long way away from what you originally said, so you are disagreeing with yourself, or were not clear enough. You've already edited your post and changed the meaning of the post I replied to. I'll leave you to continue arguing with yourself.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    It's pretty much what I said here odyssey

    Point proven I'm not going round in circles with U on this



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,511 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    I wouldn't be naming names either, including of people deceased. Bailey's name has been out in the open for years, and mostly people are discussing facts about him. He was a self confessed prime suspect, so its reasonable to discuss his guilt or otherwise and there's plenty of facts to discuss, both in his favour and against.

    Regards other suspects, bjsc mentioned establishing a routine for Sophie. Its also possible the murderer had a routine. Without naming names for legal reasons, you'd wonder if someone was in that area frequently for one reason or another at the time of the murder, which could well have been at morning time.

    Forensically it was impossible to establish a time of death, so its been left to circumstantial evidence to establish one and bjsc has made a very good argument for a morning death, possibly anytime between dawn and a few minutes before she was discovered.

    You'd have to say the difference between a middle or the night death and a morning death is huge for the case.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    Yes, that and the initial encounter did it happen at gate or house

    Either would bring clarity to the discussion

    The Garda theory is that the initial encounter occurred at the house



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    I'm assuming that bjsc was referring to a land or other neighbour dispute when she referred to other suspects

    Im possibly wrong on that . Happy to be corrected if so



  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭bjsc


    My personal view is that the entirety of the assault took place by the gate. But this does not preclude the initial contact between Sophie and her murderer from having happened at the house. There is no evidence of any physical altercation having taken place in the house. There was blood on the outside of the back door and on the handle. The blood on the door was Sophie's but scientists were unable to obtain a profile from the blood on the handle. The blood on the door, coupled with the blood on the handle, tends to indicate the action of pulling the door closed. Certainly it was closed and latched when Gardae arrived.

    Other than Sophie's disappointed about the little barn there is no evidence of any land dispute. In his statement Leo Bolger talks about the suggestion that he wanted to buy Sophie's house but denies that this was the case as it didn't have enough land.

    Sophie appears to be on excellent terms with the Hellen family although relations with Alfie and Shirley appear to be polite rather than friendly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    So what are the alternative suspect/ theories that odyssey says you've stated are more likely than Bailey?

    Some theory without naming names



  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭bjsc


    I'm not sure how much more I can tell you. I've said what I think about time of death. I've said where I think the assault happened. I've said that most murders are born out of anger. I've said that I don't think it was planned and that it's highly unlikely, given the location, that it was a passing encounter.

    I'm not sure how much more there is other than naming names and that I will not do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭bjsc


    And the other thing about naming names is that if Ian Bailey wasn't the killer then the real murderer or members of their family are still out there and they, potentially, have a lot to lose. I have made no secret of my identity and have no wish to put myself at risk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    Ok well this doesn't tie in with what odyssey was arguing earlier

    It appears you're now not stating that there are more viable suspects than bailey merely that he may not be the killer which goes without saying obviously

    There's a clear difference there





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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    I think it is stronger than that. If the murder happened in the morning, at the gate, in an unplanned assault it would be highly unlikely that Ian Bailey had anything to do with it.

    It is completely contrary to the Garda narrative against Bailey which despite twenty seven years of trying has not even met the threshold for a viable prosecution.

    The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

    I'd suggest the truth to the murder therefore more likely lies with someone other than Ian Bailey.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    Bjsc merely said a morning murder was a possibility in her first posts anyway

    So it appears posters are getting carried away on the false assumption that it is likely a morning murder and not Bailey

    I don't believe bjsc is stating any of the above

    Happy for her to correct me if wrong

    It merely appears that she is stating the obvious: could have been morning and could have been someone except bailey



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Let's be crystal clear on something. It is not "odyssey says". You are inexplicably ignoring this post where it is literally stated by the actual poster, and I have in fact in an earlier reply to you today included a link to the actual post. And still in this post you seem to feign ignorance of its origins? Come off it.

    Post #5773 10-03-2024 8:37pm

    given the known facts, there are more viable suspects than Bailey. Particularly if you allow for the possibility of a morning killing.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121876629#Comment_121876629

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    Have you been reading the thread at all this morning ?

    Bjsc has seemingly clarified her position and does not have alternative suspects in mind

    It would be sufficient for her to state that she has a definite suspect/s in mind without going any further



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    You completely misrepresented it as if it was something I said, when it was literally stated in the post I directly quoted. Are you denying the poster said it in the post I quoted? Simple question.

    And then said they won't name names.

    But I don't see any post where they state they do not have "alternative suspects in mind" ? This is your own interpretation, but not something I can see stated on the thread anywhere.

    Not sure why you have to dress up your arguments by putting words in other poster's mouths.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I'm not sure you read what she posted:

    You can't really get it clearer from her than "given the known facts, there are more viable suspects than Bailey", can you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    She hasn't clarified that at all today

    All it would take is some further explanation -no names

    It merely appears she is stating above that the murderer may be someone other than bailey



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06



    Without naming names, it would be helpful if you could clarify if you think that these alternative suspects \ possibilities to the murder in your mind are more likely than Ian Bailey as the murderer.

    If, on balance of probabilities, you think a morning murder more likely than one overnight.

    And if, on balance of probabilities, you think Bailey to be innocent or guilty.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,069 ✭✭✭✭cj maxx


    I just had a quick google of the case . I didn’t know she was only 39



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,511 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Regards more viable suspects, I'm open minded, but I have not seen or read of anything to indicate who these suspects might be, as in having actual evidence against them such as an alibi that was false (not speculation about motives, etc)

    I suspect by more viable suspects, bjsc means other viable suspects, rather than stronger suspects.

    But maybe she can clarify this one. More viable suspects can be interpreted in more than one way.



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