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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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    #9422
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,659 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    French President Macron tonight saying "nothing is off the table" for France and then also saying the country would never go on the offensive in Ukraine. Just seems like a repeat of the double speak in the west since the war began, a war Germany expected to be over within weeks.

    The calculation that needs to be made here is whether European NATO members think Ukraine is worth enough to western European populations for the increased risk of a much more serious NATO conflict with Russia and the most serious threat of nuclear war since the height of the Cold War. Ukraine is not NATO, it's not the EU. Are they willing to take the consequences when it comes to crunch for Ukraine?

    I personally don't believe for one second that western Europeans that live so comfortably today would be willing to make that trade regardless of the wrongs of Russia's actions. They are sympathetic of course but not to that extent in my opinion.

    It will be interesting to see if Russia does ultimately win what the off-ramp looks like for western leaders because some are putting themselves in an uncomfortable place if it does happen.



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    #9423
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121895286#Comment_121895286

    Russia is not going to "win" as such, as in take over all of Ukraine, it takes them months to take one village. They are still potent, just not in an offensive way. They can grind away with masses of artillery and sending in waves of 40 year old taxi drivers who've had 1 week of training, but it's brutally slow.

    Macron is using words as a chess move. No one really expects NATO troops in Ukraine, but Macron is saying it to start that discussion as a message/signal towards Putin.



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    #9424
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121895944#Comment_121895944

    Moreover: even if Putin sacrificed another 400,000 troops to take the remaining 80% of Ukraine left free, the next little wrinkle becomes how he keeps control of the place; because all things being equal the Ukrainians won't simply roll over. In all likelihood Russia will need to retain a large portion of (what remains of) its forces in Ukraine to act as the stick for whatever Quisling carrot they install in Kyiv; and you can guarantee separatist and insurrectionist forces will keep those troops busy.



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    #9425
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 8,159 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    How long can Russia keep going?



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    #9426
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122163302#Comment_122163302

    Depends on what you mean with "keep going"; they can keep the current state going for years simply because they can pump out their basic shells for artillery etc. and basic vehicles (i.e. they can't replace tanks, artillery pieces etc.) while recruiting non Russian cannon fodder. The problem for Russia is that in about three to five years (estimates vary) they will literally run out of artillery pieces for example because they run out of stored pieces to pull and can't produce enough of them; great that you got ammo but if you have nothing to fire it with. Same applies to air planes, helicopters, tanks etc.

    Second part to this is Russia's civil side of things; look at Gazprom suddenly losing money, heating not being maintained (plenty of protests in Russia about it simply because their infrastructure is falling apart and not having heating in the winter in Siberia is sort of important…), specialists not being available (either for the army or civilian companies) etc. Now keep in mind Nazi Germany never went full war economy and maintained WW2 for 6 years so Russia still have runway here but it will keep grinding and causing problems. At the end of the day the military companies are driving BNP but the rest of the economy is entering free fall and when military companies are saying "they need people to work for free" there's clearly a labour shortage which will impact the war as well (and this will have long term impact for the economy and the army as there simply are not enough children or young men to form families as they have died in Ukraine).

    Realistically Russia can't win the war simply because trying to maintain the occupation would fail (to large land area; to many soldiers required and they have already gutted other regions which may rebel). However, having said that Ukraine is not exactly in a position to celebrate either; Ukraine faces problem with ammunition (esp. artillery shells), mixed equipment (every system has it's own maintenance) and of course manpower. Zelensky don't want to piss off his voters by forcing more people to join the army but the army states it needs another half a million men at least; Russia has the advantage there of simply bigger population and possibility to recruit externally. Hence if Ukraine can survive and hold the push back in general they will ironically likely win the longer war of attrition; but they have some bad years ahead of themselves before that turn around comes.



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