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Ireland - now considered one of most vulnerable countries in the EU (defense wise)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,209 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    "It'll be grand" only works until it doesn't..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Like how you quoted me but ignored what I asked in the quote.

    Let's flip it. How can NATO help Ireland with threats that aren't on Irish terrority, that you allude to.



  • Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭highpitcheric


    This is your daily reminder that Russia can cut cables anywhere in the atlantic.

    And that as these cables are shared use so is the responsibility shared, Irish traffic on the cables being relatively little.

    And that cables run from Faslane naval base to Belfast. So we're never getting cut off.

    Days without debunking the Russians will cut us off due to our lack of investment theory: 0.



  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Sierra Slow Matchbox


    We are not joining NATO.

    What part of that do people in this thread fail to comprehend?

    No matter how furiously you masturbate at the thought of it - It's. not. happening.

    Should Ireland invest in our defensive capability? Absolutely. We should invest in state of the art technology to monitor our land, air and sea.

    For all the boogeyman talk of the Russians and the Chinese, the only times we have been invaded were by current NATO members.

    Plenty of military strategy games out there - including on mobile - please go play those instead of boring us with your warhawk nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 978 ✭✭✭Palmach


    Yes your not giving a f** is crystal clear. You also don't understand that having a well resourced is important for a multitude of reasons the most important of which is preventing people making mischief on your land and sea territory. Right now we can't do that. The West Cork arrests of drug smugglers highlighted the issue. Ireland is know as the cocaine highway because we have no way of patrolling our seas.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    What we need for policing is entirely different to military interventions. It's a disingenuous comparison.

    That said both need properly resourcing at the appropriate scale.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Who and when was Ireland known as the cocaine highway?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Irish examiner today - One ship operational and the new Casa 295 MPA aircraft not fully in service yet.

    ( from https://twitter.com/ConorHogarty/status/1768905674132439521 )



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    And about this drugs bust in west cork ..

    Sources said that these criminals assess Ireland as a “point of least resistance” into the lucrative European market.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,721 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    This is a scandal, the national security of the nation is clearly compromised. Does anyone have any confidence that his government has the capability to stop an international Islamic terror group from operating in this country?

    I would be quite happy to take the position of Singapore on this one. If you're caught bringing large quantities of drugs into this country then you're going to be executed.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,946 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    We need to quit the EU and change the Constitution (maybe multiple times?) in order to be able to execute people for smuggling drugs like Singapore so...

    Fortunately we can probably fix the problem without doing that.

    Whether it will get fixed is anyone's guess - maybe not before it gets worse given kinds of opinions you see on this thread and usual Irish sluggishness/resistance to change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,721 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I don't have the answer, just merely opining that the Singapore approach is an option.

    We have an Islamic terror organistion shipping industrial quantities of cocaine into this country.

    Do we shrug our shoulders and just accept this, or should we view this as an important issue and act accordingly?



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,435 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Some observations.

    1) Current capabilities on any side are irrelevant. Yes, we get it, Russia has problems much closer to home. Does anyone think that in 10-15 years that will still be the case? That the Russians, who have a long history of learning from their military experiences, will not sort themselves out a bit? Ireland cannot push a button and end up with a Norway-sized force, for example. It also needs to start making decisions now which will not have taken effect until well into the next decade.

    2). Just because something is an idiotic and doomed thing to do does not mean that it isn’t going to happen. History is replete with people having “good ideas” which end up causing unwinnable wars. That they were unwinnable was not of great consolation, however, to the folks in the middle, even if they were later liberated. The question “what can happen” is as important as “what will happen”. Worth noting that in the Cold War, the USSR had better maps of Ireland than the Irish Army did. They obviously felt there was some reason to go through the effort.

    3). Defense isn’t just military, though it is important. Other factors like cyber are also critical. It is worth observing that if an opponent of, say, the US wishes to cause economic or even industrial harm to the US, affecting the ability of US companies to operate is going to be a way to do it. This is even more likely since it generally does not escalate into conventional warfare. The security of the infrastructure is going to become more of a factor in future US investment abroad.

    4). yes, the cables can be cut anywhere in the Atlantic. However, any NATO country can operate around those cables in the Atlantic. They are not supposed to be operating within Irish territorial waters. That becomes an Irish problem.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ Ari Gorgeous Peppermint


    One thing of note in the Ukraine war was how useful train lines were. Ireland's old network was pretty good compared to today's version. They were debating recently reopening the train line from Yaughal to Midleton but went with a greenway instead, yawn.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,661 ✭✭✭Field east


    I assume by territory would include waters around Ireland that are part of the Irish state. The same goes for waters around other states. So if Russia attacks a cable/pipeline in English waters that impact on Ireland, well then that answers your point.

    re international waters - I am not aware what The NATO rules are if there is an attack by Russia on , say , a British submarine



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,661 ✭✭✭Field east


    Re monitoring land , air and sea - if we set information from this monitoring that is serious re threatening our safety , what should we do with. Should we all up our fleet of attack ships, our fleet of aerial fighters or an array of our fighting fit soldiers or what?

    Re your fifth paragraph - that was then , this is now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It doesn't.

    The cable people keep referring to runs across the atlantic. You can't protect it. All it would take is a remotely operated mine or torpedo to break it.

    There were multiple explosions on the Nord stream pipelines in international waters. They couldn't stop that.

    Back in WW1 both sides cut each others cables often using submarines. If they could do it then it's only got a lot easier. However they repaired them constantly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    No I'm not forgetting about depth. Because any cable has to come to the surface. So its at reachable (vulnerable) depths for considerable distance. So the whole, "they are too deep" is a fallacy.

    The Russians for example have their own deep diving AC31 "..known to have operated at about 2,000–2,500 metres (6,600–8,200 ft) depth" and have past experience with deep diving submarines. Of course it might dive deeper who knows. The Titanic is at 3,800 metres and we have video of that. So it's hardly a stretch to get to the cables. Not as I've said you have to attack them at the deepest spot either. They don't need surface ships to do it either.

    Point being not that they are vulnerable. But they are very difficult to defend militarily. So joining NATO expecting that, is deluded.

    But we still need to resource the armed forced properly. That's a different issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,509 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    The Russians are living in your heads lads. The arrogance of thinking this green rock in the Atlantic is important enough to be invaded or attacked is beyond me. How many ships/subs will we need to patrol our precious cables? Ah stop, I can't believe this thread is still going. Join NATO, not a chance!

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭highpitcheric


    Isnt tapping such cables largely pointless anyway?

    As the levels of encryption are sky high, requiring pre-assigned simultaneous coding/decoding at both ends, with the speed of reaction to the information today being extremely low.

    Along with the issue of huge quantities of data flow.

    Just how I imagine it, but heres how I see it working in todays world.

    You first have to tap the cable. Then you have to find the right needle in the haystack of terrabytes of data, then you have to decode whats being transmitted, which will be time consuming, and then you have to relay that back, and somehow verify its legit.

    And this is assuming that important info is transmitted in 1 package by 1 route at 1 time. With 0 additional layers of security.

    I think by the time all that is done many of the events youre looking to meddle in will have already taken place.

    So you catch the online address of an important database, and you catch a username and password, youre in the money.

    But you didnt catch the decryption needed for the data within to make any sense (that went in 20 different transmissions by 4 different routes, some non-electronic), and you didnt use the correct procedures when you entered user name and password, so you got denied.

    And even had you done it all right, its all old by now, acted on and useless, and the contents deleted or replaced with dis-info.

    Am I right?

    Its just that things have moved on from listening in on a phone call on some copper wire. How useful is that strategy in the age of cybersecurity and fiberoptics. Where decisions are taken in seconds?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭highpitcheric


    "more relevant for our current scenario would be the numerous cable-tapping operations during the Cold War."

    "It's not the tapping that's a point of concern here".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Exactly.

    It not that Russia can't do these things, or that they wouldn't just cause trouble. Since they do stupid stuff all the time. It just there's other things they can do with less effort. More resources in Cyber might be more useful as a result.

    But again we still need our defence forces properly resourced even for a policing role.



  • Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭highpitcheric


    Can they also just drop something to 4000 meters that would fūck up a cable?

    Somewhere out in the wide Atlantic.

    If you can place 6 tonnes, you can drop 6 tonnes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    They've found the titanic. Somehow I think something a few thousand km long is going to a lot easier to find. Then there's the fact they've built very expensive specialised equipment and trained specialised teams to do exactly that.

    That said its not something I personally would lose any sleep over.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,946 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    There's so many points that get flung out to counter any conceivable risk brought up and just seem like reasons to do nothing and to change nothing.

    e.g. communications cables running through our EEZ are not ours, and they cannot be secured 100 % along their length (so why should we bother doing anything?).

    However, what is happening inside our waters and EEZ is supposedly our responsibility.

    What may happen in the open ocean is not our responsibility (should Russia or anyone else use sophisticated deep water subs / drones there to attack cables or tap them).

    I believe govt. took action & went to UN to extend our sea territory a few decades back to include more of this inconveniently big EEZ we are (in theory) responsible for. Maybe it was just for show, or because it was expected. We should not have bothered, probably.

    We don't intend to keep an eye on what goes on there because it is too much trouble, and that's all good...capabilities of the naval service have even been reduced since then due to political choices (and with no squeak of public oppositon).



  • Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭highpitcheric


    Watching the excuses for why we should join nato is like watching the residents of north swords and their excuse not to build the metro in the local green area because Billy Joe whoever once played football on those same fields.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    So many daft reasons get thrown up as excuses to buy lots of expensive toys that will do very little to solve the daft problem they are being proposed for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Oddly enough when I check if what you said is true I find it's about pitches in active use by all ages in an active football club. Not a park that was last used 50 yrs ago by someone's grandad as you've implied.

    Maybe they should do what they did in the NCH and build new pitches on the roof of whatever they put there.

    Though I don't get the analogy with Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    It took 73 years to find the titanic. A huge medal ship they knew the location of when it sank



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ Ari Gorgeous Peppermint


    Ireland should play a wargame with a country just to test how bad the Irish defences are. I would assume they would be able to land and take territory very fast. Alot of the Irish defence training seems to be on land so not sure if their expectation is to let the enemy land first and then attack them as that would seem to be a grave mistake for an island.



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