Share Picks 2024

I bought mine for €24.40 during the Covid dip. Since they transferred to the London Stock Exchange, DeGiro doesn't show the % gain. I didn't realise till last week, how much I was up. About 3.2X now.

Definitely harder to pick up a bargain but, yes, many would argue that if you exclude the magnificent 7 (magnificent 6 maybe given Tesla's abysmal performance of late), the markets haven't moved as much as many would think.

I wouldn't read much into that.

Almost all of those "sells" were showing as "bought" the previous quarter and the foundation still has $43bn worth of shares.

I keep holding mostly in cash thinking surely the top is in, then it pulls back 1% and two days later makes another ATH, knowing my luck the second i dip my toe in the water its going to dive . At least T212 is paying me interest for my patience!

On Boeing, I'm in profit and the scuttlebutt around Boeing taking over Spirit Aerosystems has strengthened my resolve on this position. Boeing previously spun Spirit off in early noughties and the impact of that particular transaction on Boeing's travails today? Are quite clear. Bringing fuselage and sub assembly manufacture back in house, should ideally lead to better quality and far smoother production management and QCA.

On Canoo (GOEV) I've been steadily accumulating a position over the last 8 weeks or so. I think given the roadblocks Rivian has hit with their new factory, Tesla having capacity and quality issues too. That Canoo's recent acquisition of more factory capacity and the delivery of their USPS configured test vehicles are a good base for price recovery.

That said, their reverse stock split this week did catch me by surprise but I do appreciate the importance for Canoo of maintaining it's NASDAQ listing and that means that $1 a share is a requirement.

On NIO, again I've been slowly accumulating and have a BE price of $5.90 and I'm happy to keep accumulating at sub $6.50

I think NIO's biggest risk currently is the price war globally but China in particular. If BYD keep being as lean as they are? They could well be swamping competition over next few years.

Well this latest weekend of Boeing travails has kicked the legs out from under my $195 bottom.

Looking ahead at either the acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems or just the arresting of the current decline and improving QCA is going to be an exercise in cash burn. There is no cheap way of improving and then maintaining quality control.

Boeing & GOEV may become either long hold for me, or Iay crystallise at some stage this year depending on my tax situation.

That's a very pessimistic price target on Tesla from Wells Fargo, who dropped the target from $200 to $125 per share today.

Some of the commentary included 'Growth company with no growth' and I have to agree to a certain extent. I do expect growth - just not the levels of growth that would justify the current forward P/E.

There are some formidable competitors now, where there were once none, and are more to come.

I have some 4D Pharma still sitting in DEGIRO with a loss which I'd like to realise in 2024 against some of the gains against the rest of my portfolio. Does anyone know how you go about doing this or is that even possible? Obviously they aren't trading right now but they still have a value associated with them and I can't work out what to do. TIA.

Reg NWL, company does not seem to be profitable, neg return on equity, declining qoq growth, biggest red flag was debt to equity ratio, standing at 180%! It is a good risky play, considering the change in processes and cost redirections, but did you factor the above?

yes, factored in all above. Its risky, but like many companies that bought / merged other companies they took their time streamlining and they seem to have got it right this time and took an axe to underperforming sku's, over staffing and warehousing.

Gross margins have been increasing and a further increase is expected. Once one-off redundancy / closing costs are put aside, underlying profits are there and any increase in margin will feed nicely. All brands are decent market leading brands in relatively stable sectors. Its a relatively boring stock, but I feel the drop has been overdone and like DG (and M&S last year) there's decent upside.

Any comments on Intel.

They lost their way for a while and are playing catch up, but they still are big players and getting substantial grants.

Shares have been lackluster when compared to peers, but last earnings suggested it might be turning the corner and possibly jumping ahead of Micron / TSMC in AI chip development.

Any sign of AI chip forecast could see shares jump just like Micron has done so in the past few weeks.

And is it now an opportunity to buy into Apple with the current negative newsflow? If iPhone16 becomes a must have product due to AI capabilities, it will soar again

This guy is usually fairly close to right and his expectations for Tesla registrations is extremely pessemistic this quarter

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike

I know, its mad isnt it!

The risk with airline shares is an event out of their control can have a big affect on value.

Oil prices in particular. Pandemics, air crash, war etc.

But it does look good value as oil prices are stable and could start falling. Refining prices are relatively steady but still elevated and could fall back too.

Transatlantic and Asian Business travel is the profit engine for IAG, so a bit of research into how this is returning would be helpful. I suspect you will see it's on an upward trajectory.

So overall, high risk factor due to uncontrolled external items, but could see strong recovery if the winds are in their favour.

Unless there are big tariffs on Chinese made green energy products I'd be wary of investing. From what I've read, Chinese solar panels are a quarter of the price of EU/US made panels and of course the Chinese are pouring cheap EVs into the rest of the world. Wind energy seems to be only market that China isn't a big challenger in.

Not worth $10 😃

But it would have been nice to take advantage of the more gullible trump fanatics for that one day.

q1 2024 delivery announcements come tomorrow.

https://ir.tesla.com/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2024

386810 deliveries. That is not at all good.

Their powerwalls are not sodium based, no talk of switching to sodium based batteries anywhere, factories set up for lithium ion battery production, cybertruck an irrelvance outside U.S. and Model2 not due to enter production for another two years and will be built in Mexico rather than E.U. where there is an appetite for compact class cars.

I am very interested in the Model 2 as I think it will be revolutionary but from an investor perspective that Share is going nowhere but downward for the next while.

…and the Chinese auto market is completely fickle with Brand goodwill worth next to zero.

Share price of 3M dropped as a result. They've had a lot of lawsuits to deal with and big competition from cheaper markets for products.

What are your plans with 3M and Solventum?

I know some are planning on reallocating to move exposure from one to the other and others are getting rid of one or the other - though I suspect most are just holding their current position in both.

Personally, my only position in MMM was short puts that expired worthless last week - but I've opened a position on Solventum today at $63.99. It seems pretty undervalued.

I hope to sell covered calls when they begin trading on IB.

One of the things I like about US companies versus companies operating in other countries is the plethora of research sources usually available - obviously, not the case with such a new spinoff.

My understanding is that the spinoff has been saddled with most of 3M's debt - $7.7 billion in net debt as far as I can tell. When added to the $11 billion market cap, it's valued at $18.7 billion - or about 2.3 times 2023 sales.

Their margins are expected to be in the low-to-mid 20's in percentage terms and they are guiding for earnings of between $6.10 and $6.40 per share. Both very healthy figures.

The sales guidance for 2024 is negative 2% to flat which is the main concern and only reason I can see for current pricing.

At my purchase price and the upper end of their guided range of $6.40, I'm buying in at a P/E of 10; which I suspect is good value.

I rarely use the upper end when looking at such things but I also have a suspicion that guidance for a new spinoff could be slightly pessimistic. Management may dread the thought of guiding to the higher end of what they truly believe and missing for the first set of results post spin off.