Russia - threadbanned users in OP

They should have depleted them in Ukraine when they had the chance and they still have that chance if they ramp up now but we humans have a habit of sleepwalking into large catastrophes that we get ample forewarning off.

Many analysts saying that russia has wasted its recent offensive gains by moving forces away from the four main thrust points and spread themselves along the front thinly again.

Could be they see the ammo arriving to Ukraine soon will pound any mass concentrations of forces to smitereens.

Also in some spots they have reached the limit of what the terrain can give them and are restricted by rivers, valleys and dense forests.

Saw a video on Reddit this morning of the new airburst drone killing two russians. It's basically a flying claymore mine and kills instantly, no writhing around just stone dead.

last night shoigu announced the creation of 2 new ground armies, with 16 new brigades & 14 new divisions. for context that's larger than the combined armies of britain, france, germany, poland, spain, netherlands and sweden. mass mobilisation is on the way.

the question though is how will they equip them. in terms of bmp's they will run out in the next 12 to 24 months if the current rate of attrition keeps up. they simply cannot produce anywhere near enough numbers to replace and their ex-soviet supplies are dwindling by the day. as things stand offensive operations in the summer will be a real struggle for the russians.

If NATO/EU supports Ukraine, in Ukraine itself, only to provide Ukrainian security (air, sea and land) and to push Russians out to the internationally recognised borders, there is no need, nor a viable pretext for any nuclear escalation. Remember that Putin threatened with a nuclear response if anyone helps Ukraine in any way back in 2022, and his threats proved hollow. Which is somewhat logical, Russia itself is not threatened even by Western tanks in Ukraine since nobody expects those to be used in a successful drive on Moscow.

Putin is only likely to use nuclear weapons if he is personally threatened, and even if and when Ukraine, with or without NATO's help, reestablishes its borders, it does not directly threaten Putin.

Interesting article from generally reliable source on where things are right now

Victor, Russia couldn't capture one third of a kilometer inside Estonia or any NATO country. Any sign of a build up on NATO's borders will be detected. NATO will have total air superiority.

Indeed, that's the situation now.

However, in the hypothetical future, with e.g. Trump in the White House, Europe potentially more fractured, "tired" of the endless Ukraine war, problems with NATO - anything could happen. Putin would be the first to exploit any opportunities.

NATO is great on paper, but in practice Europe, as we can see, is very soft and unprepared, and thats directly after an invasion of Europe by Putin, imagine in a few years time how apathetic we could potentially be. As much as I detest Trump, maybe he's the shock/jolt Europe needs to wake up and smell the coffee, that we need to be on a war footing, because that's Putin's approach to us, he's not just at war with Ukraine.

Of course, it is disturbing to think that Russia, with its disregard for human life and with its extensive experience in the modern conflict tactics, may jam GPS and most radio comms, and attempt to send waves of storm troopers across Estonian border.

I would put the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in 2022 way, way above of the undoubtedly brave, yet tiny, Estonian army. And there is no magic teleport capability that could transfer a sizable army and enough equipment into Estonia within weeks. Unless the overwhelming air power can be brought upon the invaders, larger numbers will eventually win.

And are you assuming that there will not be a coup or populist reaction/uprising , etc, etc, etc in Russia during all of this projected turmoil in Europe?

So much for the 'sun is too high in the sky' claims on here that this was old footage from the start of the war. Terrible shame, but at least one managed to take off and avoid the artillery.

They could try to gain territory on a non NATO member..as a test and to show strength at home?