European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

MNW is going to be a mess for later seats. Ming, one assumes, is safe. If FG do give up on a second seat and just run Maria, she'll be safe. Carthy safe.

But for the 4th and 5th seat - FF could crash in to each other and transfer badly and get nothing. Potential FG2 could still be in the running. There's surely a seat for SF2 *or* for whoever gathers all the other transfers on the left.

There was ~80k FPV for looper Independents last time, this is presumably going to feed a lot of the far right candidates and with five seats there's a chance someone could scrape through; at the expense of FF or FG2 probably.

For the 2020 GE, there were some things issued by the rag-bag suggesting transferring amongst Irexit/National/Renua anyway.

Did it work? Not really. And at the 2019 EEs, the various right wing groups then managed to transfer absolutely everywhere, in some cases more going to Labour or the Greens than another right wing candidate.

Will be interesting to see if Renua's latest zombie "The Centre Party" runs anyone. They wouldn't even be considered Centre in the US where "left" means "centre right" and "right" means "somewhat to the right of Mussolini"

FG apparently going down the Celeb route for Midlands North West again - Nina Carberry.

I mean, it worked for McGuinness (TV presenter) and Walsh (Rose of Tralee)...

They also don't have the legs to run 3 candidates safely though.

He's running alright.

In the old days, FF and FG would always run 3, or 4, or 5 candidates for a 5 seater. With their current vote share, it could go horribly wrong.

Failed local election candidate for them in the past.

I suspect Hearne is more about promoting himself than being tied to any party TBH

Yes

That's somewhat surprising but makes the FG candidate volume less insane.

He’s an ideologue - but tried to paint himself as an expert. Anyone as blinded by ideology as he is shouldn’t be presented by the media as an independent expert.

When do the candidate lists close? There's a real lack of quality in Ireland South...

Walsh represents the modern woke FG and that is definitely going to go against her.

Remember this is the woman that told reporters visiting EU parliament that FF candidates for June elections were "male, pale and stale".

A lot of rural voters and particularly older FG voters would see no problem with male and pale unlike the lady that made her name in a somewhat weird beauty pagent.

Toibin is going to pick up lots of disenfranchised SF voters as the shinners have sat playing dumbo with their thumbs up their backsides as massive amount of asylum seekers/refugees dumped into towns and villages particularly in Donegal, Mayo, Roscommon.

That will also come back to haunt FG.

Cowen could get a seat back for FF.

So you are totally ignoring Toibin ?

The only TD in the Dail that told it as the actual public saw it with regards the referendums.

Toibin also has his old shinner credentials which appeals to thousands of disaffected SF voters and he also appeals to old rural voters with his stance on abortion.

I believe if he plays this right he could top the poll as the ultimate two fingers to the establishment.

Voting against government in a referendum isn't going to sate the anger out there at the mainstream political parties.

FG swapping to Leo Lite aint going to come anywhere near fixing the damage done.

Donegal going on population has the highest number of asylum seekers and Ukrainian refugees in the country.

Mayo, Monaghan and Wicklow are the next highest.

That is two more counties in that constituency.

All of this is happening in Donegal while the mica fiasco hasn't been solved.

And SF sit back getting splinters in their ass from the fence.

If Toibin wins a seat in Europe he'll run in next general election and get his td seat back, with his MEP seat going to whoever is next on his list. Win win for him.

Up to 9 months of being electorally irrelevant and not being on every politics show that uses him as the contrarian viewpoint.

He is the party. 9 months in Brussels will kill it

Though you don't have to buy the swings or roundabouts, a top of the range printer might be better.

Other candidates that aren't his siblings.

His replacement list will be interesting. I'd be certain the first replacement will be his sister

Can one be an MEP & TD at the same time? Surely if did win in June, & stood in the next GE, he’d have to resign the MEP seat?

Or am I reading this all wrong?

You nominate a replacement list when running as MEP. It can be quite funny when a no-hoper lists ten replacements.

SF have nearly run out of potential replacements before due to them getting elected or leaving the party.

Irish MEPs averaged expenses of avg 120k, largely unvouched, a year and had 25k a month allowance for staff, office etc.

Excluding wage or severance.

Its not a small sum either. It would allow full time staff for the party.

I also do not currently have trousers on.

There are downsides but 9 months on those expenses and him travelling to every town in Ireland..

There are risks but he could drive things forward as well. It might have benefits as well.

What we'll see is FF voter party discipline implode, Lisa Chambers representing the Michael Martin wing of the party, well heeled, on trend, right sort of job and family vs the part of the party Martin absolutely hates, the callused hands, bog trotters and attending the local Easter week commemorative event for Grand daddy and the old brigade.

They'll agree territory and be canvassing the others part in a week.

He admits he is using this to push his party, he has no intention of staying in Europe.

You also don't appear to realise how pi**ed people are.

Maybe you believe people will go back to old party alliances or that they won't be bothered going out to vote?

Because otherwise you have a lot of voters that want to kick the established parties.

Yes people voted no on these referendums for all sorts of reasons, including fact they are really pi**ed with government, all political parties as noticable by high No in SF voting areas and they are pi**ed with mainstream media.

The same media that will be trying to work out how the seats are going to be broken down by traditional parties.

I am just saying his old style catholicism appeals to some older voters.

It is anti migration and republican credentials that will get him elected I believe.

True Herman Kelly can have a bearing here as a lot of people will give him a vote as well.

Some people don't appear to grasp how some towns in West and Northwest have had the fabric of their communities changed forever and the main political parties are behind it with local politicians for those parties doing nothing but toeing the line set in some office in Dublin.

Other towns are looking at this not ending and the chance that they may be next as nothing is being done to end the numbers.

Even if you leave out migration, the cost of living is going up day by day as evidenced by price of fuel. And this is a constituency where most people have to drive to get anywhere.

Ciaran Mullooly possibly running for Independent Ireland (nearly said II, but that initialism was used for another party before that even the current IndI would really not want to be associated with) in MNW.

Going to be a heavily split vote and a loooooong count I suspect.

Former RTÉer Ciaran Mullooly is set to run for Independent Ireland in MNW

Current MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan has remarked on the development on X, stating:

“I see that I’m now running against two RTE ‘Stars’. Pay the licence fee. To nurture the careers of future politicians.”

I’m in this constituency, and trying to find out how many declared nominations.

You are right it is going to be a long long count.