Russia - threadbanned users in OP

you touch on an interesting point, below is Scott Adams commenting on a David Sacks Tweet commenting on a Musk tweet (bear with me) , the gist of it is that we have been sold on emotional narratives of who should win over the difficult analysis of who is going to "win" (based on your definition I guess) and that the decisions, policies etc should be framed in reality not on what you want reality to be. Its not being pro Putin /Putinbot (insert insult of choice) to point out the reality as one sees it.

The high point for Ukraine was the end of 2022, questions have to be asked, was it incompetence in forecasting or were the yanks huffing their own supply or the yanks didnt care one way or another and hurting Russia was the main goal, that they didnt push for peace negotiations then as they should have known that Russian economy/military wouldnt collapse as predicted or that Putin wouldnt be taken out. The opposite has happened

It looks like European and some American politicians are suffering from a gambling sunk cost fallacy and arent capable of coming to rational decisions with the present circumstances sort of obvious.

"that they didnt push for peace negotiations then"

Why would anyone push for negotiations with putin when he has proved he does not believe in peace or with sticking to agreements or being in anyway honest or trustworthy?

You have tried to repeat this negotiated peace nonsense before and there is still no sign putin has any interest in peace.

you wouldnt know if you didnt try, I believe General Milley thought they should have to, as it was when Ukraine had the better momentum. In the context that NATO got involved more than Russia probably thought they would, it would have been quite a sobering situation

Are you sure you arent misremembering the past to back up whatever is your position is today? if it was going to be a failed offensive then Musk was right and Ukraine should have focused on building its own defensive lines and keep its powder dry. The obvious best way to drain the Russians was to have them attacking Ukraine lines. The Americans ultimately had a veto as they were supplying the help. All I remember was "everyone" media etc. being totally up for the offensive and anyone that disagreed was a putin bot and this site was no different. I think I called it out here in late july/early Aug and anyone that quoted my post disagreeing was guaranteed 10 or 20 likes ;-)

Im sure you could start a seperate thread on all the hot takes, but there is an example below

I dont really trust any casulty figures, are you saying Russia loses then or what are the numbers trying to tell me?

thats the point though, its not existential for Europe, it would have been "nice" if Russia folded, Putin got kicked out of office and a magical West friendly leader came to power where Russia's energy reserves would get divvied up, it was expected to be a free punt. On the other hand, it is the reason though why Putin wouldnt attack NATO.

At this stage there is a sunk cost especially for the careers of the Western and Ukrainian politicians involved, a lot of reputations on the line.

It's really bizarre you think negotiating with putin who has broken previous peace agreements with Ukraine and shown no interest in peace would yield anything so I must assume you have some love for him.

Nasty

What?

Putin invaded Ukraine. He broke treaties to do that. He will break them again.

Putin has been bombing Ukraine 24/7 since Feb 24th 2022. "Peace" is not and has never been on the table. The Ukrainians only have a choice of surrender (occupation) or fighting (survival). That's it.

At some point, when war doesn't suit Putin, it's "expected" there could be some sort of settlement (that he could break at any time). It has not reached that point yet.

sachs is a russian troll

a bit of good news for ukraine, especially the anti missile batterys

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/france-to-provide-armoured-vehicles-missiles-to-ukraine/ar-BB1kP1il

A load of counterfactual bollox imo. The one here with the clearest sunk cost delusion is Putin, who has kept on going, throwing loads of Russian and Ukrainian bodies on the fire after his original plan failed. Well, I suppose that is a benefit of being an absolute ruler answerable to noone.

Ukraine's offensive failed, but they won't get back more territory they have had stolen or free people there without making the attempt. A few other reasons for the failure are tardiness and caution of the Western countries supplying them (allowed Russia ample time to build those minefields), restrictions placed on weapons that are supplied to Ukraine and how they can be used (no longer range missiles supplied from the US to Ukraine at all I think, Western countries demand Ukraine never attack targets in Russia with their weapons).

The main reason there is any hope at all remaining for Russia to win something at the moment IMO is that the US political system is dysfunctional. New US materiel to Ukraine is stalled for 3 months now so far, it is likely stopped until the next election there and maybe indefinitely depending on the outcome. Likely Ukraine has had to get much more cautious with resources well before that (mid last year, around time of offensive) as clouds were gathering over the longevity of US support by then.

We saw this US chaos and political dysfunction manifest during Covid, now we see it again during war in Ukraine.

The reality is there are some MAGA/Trump people on the right of US politics engineering circumstances to cripple aid to Ukraine, Russia making a bit of progress now as a result of that (still at an horrific cost) and then you have wormtongue-like fellow travellers (pro Russia types whose tweets you love quoting/posting) piping up that they knew Ukraine never had a chance and should have chased a will o the wisp of "peace" with Russia that was never on the table unless they will kow-tow completely.

It is quite ridiculous really. It's like a thief tries to break into a house, he can't get past the locks on the door and is held up…Someone inside tries to call the police. Then a bunch of accomplices/pals cut the phone line + block the road, then they also have the gall to nod wisely and wag a finger at the occupants…oh you should let the robbers take it all right at the start, because there was never a chance!