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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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    #3902
    alias no.9
    Registered Users Posts: 6,310 ✭✭✭alias no.9


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997065#Comment_121997065

    Seats are the mandate, there were 3 parties with broadly similar mandates.



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    #3903
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997102#Comment_121997102

    So with FF on 16%-!7% and SF on 26-27% what do you think the seat difference will be if a GE returned those vote share numbers? This is one tallyman's prediction:

    Sinn Féin 60
    Fianna Fáil 39
    Fine Gael 38
    Independents 17
    Social Democrats 8
    PBP/Solidarity 4
    Green Party 3
    Independent Ireland 2
    Labour 1
    Aontú 1
    Right2Change 1



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    #3904
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997065#Comment_121997065

    You are missing the larger point.

    SF need the support of either FF or FG to form a Government - That will cost them if they want to close the deal , simple as that and that cost won't be a few Community Centres and bypasses that might get a few independents to align.

    I don't see many FF voters (or even those that might be giving FF a transfer) being turned away because they choose to play hardball with SF in negotiations for a future Government resulting in another Election.

    Last time out there were no FF or FG voters that were upset with them for not doing a deal with SF , quite the opposite in fact and that's unlikely change this time around either.

    What might change though is some SF voters might realise that simply being the single largest party does not bring with it an absolute right to form a Government and that voting for a party able to gain wider consensus might make more sense if the country are asked to vote a second time.



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    #3905
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997170#Comment_121997170

     upset with them for not doing a deal with SF


    I wonder about that. I think we have yet to see the ramifications of FF going with FG both within FF and with the electorate.
    FF have dropped to 16-17% in the polls. So I would not be so sure about it.
    Fun and games FF style ahead I think.



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    #3906
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997302#Comment_121997302

    The drop has nothing to do with their willingness or otherwise to make a deal with SF.

    The drop is because people aren't happy with the performance of the Government, but I'd also posit that "Not happy with the Government" does not always equal "Vote for the other guy".

    The Party with the largest drop in support over the last 6 months or so is SF . The current parties of Government have a significant lead over SF (42.6% vs 27.2%) and the trending suggests that might continue to grow.

    image.png

    However , the question of the thread is "How to SF form a Government?"

    The answer is "Do a deal with FF".

    And the reality is that to make that deal, SF will have to make significant consequential concessions to FF , which they and their voters may or may not will be willing to accept.

    Graph above is from here



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    #3907
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996695#Comment_121996695

    No, SF would, like most other parties, say to the public, that FF were not willing to do a deal and ask for a majority from the electorate

    The public would punish the intransigence of FF who after years in Govt had mysteriously discovered policies that they were interested in.

    I can't see FF being that hard to roll.



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    #3908
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997421#Comment_121997421

    Genuine question , do you believe that voters that vote for FF in the next Election will subsequently change their minds and vote for SF in a second election following a failure to negotiate a deal?

    Why would an FF voter change sides on that basis?

    I can see maybe some that voted for Independents that didn't get elected perhaps moving back to the larger parties on a 2nd vote , but I truly can't see a voter jumping from FF to SF in the above scenario. If they were planning to "punish FF" they'd have already done so and I don't think they'd see demanding a high price for forming a government as a sufficient negative to change their vote.

    I struggle to see the process that brings that change in voting preference.

    To your last point - This all assumes that FF hold their line and don't "roll-over" just to stay in power , which of course if absolutely possible.



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    #3909
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997391#Comment_121997391

    a fair bit of projection going on there.

    At it’s base is what you would like to believe.
    SF have increased their support since an actual election while FF have lost support.
    Remains to be seen why that is.



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    #3910
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997466#Comment_121997466

    A few would but other smaller parties than FF would lose bits as well. FF might get less 2 or 3s.

    The line about Dev being able to burn out homes in Donegal and the residents would stand on the ashes and shout up FF.

    FF is a religious belief for many of their older voters.

    Micheal Martin's only focus would be on getting a big job in Europe, that motivates his every waking hour. He doesn't like SF but his own TDs hate him and he many of them so..



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    #3911
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997485#Comment_121997485

    At the last Election SF had 25% support , today they sit at 27%

    FF and FG were on 22% and 21% respectively , today - FG are at 20% , FF are at 17%.

    All the polling in between doesn't really matter.

    Having said that, FF and FG have both been fairly static for quite some time, in and around 18/19% give or take.

    SF though spiked to ~36% about 18 months ago and have now lost almost all that lift ,mostly to Independents it would appear.

    With the change in Leadership in FG, I suspect that the Government will now go to full term so we'll have the better part of another year for polling to change all over again.



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    #3912
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997551#Comment_121997551

    Yes, FF have dropped 5 points.

    You think that is because of their performance, I happen to think there are other reasons too, namely allying with FG when there were other options.
    We will see how that plays out next time.
    I am fascinated to see how campaigns are run.



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    #3913
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121995691#Comment_121995691

    Shared Taoiseach for one.

    And policies.

    No radical SF policies on anything will be allowed.



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    #3914
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,448 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001265#Comment_122001265

    "radical" or unworkable policies

    Still no idea why FF would go in and get themselves involved in a party who have totally unworkable policies. If they do SF will take all the credit so nothing in it for FF.

    Sit back and watch it crash and burn, then pick up the pieces and send SF back to the North to see if they can fix the mess they have made up their



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    #3915
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001265#Comment_122001265

    No radical SF policies on anything will be allowed.

    I find it very illuminating in the last few posts to see how much of a body blow the rise of SF has been to those who thought FF and FG would be in control into perpetuity.

    Even if 10 points behind (If GE results mirrored current polling) FF should still be able to dictate.

    Not going to happen IMO.



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    #3916
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,392 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001468#Comment_122001468

    Jaysis,you and your nemesis posters above do come across sometimes as having it bad for each other

    If as is likely,FF will become inclusive should the numbers dictate,can we not reciprocate rather than taunting these blue shirts and the Dev's and vice versa

    Spirit of the north like 😂



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    #3917
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001879#Comment_122001879

    Taunting?
    I was just making an observation on the idea implicit in the post.



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    #3918
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,931 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997421#Comment_121997421

    That doesn't mean the public will vote for Sinn Fein.

    In a second election, around 50% of the population may take the view that because FF started to talk to SF, they can't be trusted, and that FG, as the party that stood off from those talks and refused to engage with the party controlled by the IRA Army Council, that FG deserve their vote.



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    #3919
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002368#Comment_122002368

    Surely if they had an issue such as you outline they'd vote for FG in the first place. FF are not ruling out talking to SF anymore and Micheal did open the door last time out too.



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    #3920
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002368#Comment_122002368

    The Army Council line didn't run 20 years ago, it's not going to now.

    I'd say most voters in Ireland think the Army Council is a Belgian Techno band.

    Those well in to the pension might differ.



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    #3921
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,448 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002703#Comment_122002703

    It's hard to say, but personally speaking everyone I know would be abe to tell you what the Army council is, Sinn Fein themselves made sure to remind everyone not so long ago with a army parade they dressed up as a funeral, except they didnt have an actual corpse

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/storey-funeral-a-reminder-that-ira-army-council-runs-sinn-fein-1.4294619



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    #3922
    rolling boh
    Registered Users Posts: 2,052 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    The independents and smaller groups seem to be holding their own that for me is bad news for SF who would have to take alot of their seats to get anything near 60 seats which I feel is the number they need to make power .The way things are now it looks like same group in .



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    #3923
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002720#Comment_122002720

    I think you mean a 'council', as the army is no longer active.

    The IRA did what they said they would.



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    #3924
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,392 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002778#Comment_122002778

    I sometimes misread things at first glance and read that as the ICA ...spitting out my tea

    Evening laugh secured,thank you 🤣🤣



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    #3925
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,931 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002720#Comment_122002720

    Not everyone knows about the Army Council. There are some out there who were fooled by the "power swap" parties for 50 years and are now being fooled into believing that the Army Council is gone.

    The PSNI and the Gardai have both confirmed that the Army Council still exists, still controls the PIRA, but is not engaged in sectarian violence. The question is, if they are not engaged in sectarian violence, what exactly are they doing? Tiddlywink classes? Thuggish criminality? Money-Laundering? Smuggling? Controlling a political party undemocratically?

    Probably all of the above except the tiddlywinks.



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    #3926
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002811#Comment_122002811

    Maybe they are doing what you, me and others asked them to do in the GFA, involving themselves in democratic politics.

    That's the bit of what the IMC and the PSNI said you don't like quoting.



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    #3927
    Clo-Clo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,448 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002811#Comment_122002811

    Didn't a TD who recently left SF get threats telling her "they haven't gone away", was that the Army Council or just random threats fired out to people by members of Sinn Fein?



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    #3928
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,931 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002902#Comment_122002902

    You'll have some who will contend that the Army Council is now involved in democratic politics yet simultaneously deny that they have any role in the control of Sinn Fein. Quite bizarre.



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    #3929
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122002918#Comment_122002918

    Engaged in exclusively peaceful means.
    The bit you don’t want to address and never quote because that would not suit the narative.
    Didn’t work for the 2020 GE and I reckon it won’t work for the next one.



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    #3930
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996724#Comment_121996724

    I think SF would rather sit it out if they had to give up all those key positions tbh. And I'd support them in doing that.

    I don't think either that they would lose support, as the electorate would see FF arrogance for what it is.

    Not at all.

    If the public gave SF a mandate to form a government by being the largest party, and SF turn around and say,"Soz, I am gong to sit on the ditch again…" they will get a right kicking if there is a new GE straight after one.



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    #3931
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,879 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122003463#Comment_122003463

    If FF make demands(they won’t IMO) no reasonable person would accept then reasonable people will blame FF.



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