Simon Harris, the TikTok Taoiseach

There are two problems with Irish polling which currently limit their usefulness. Irish politics is in a particular state of flux and there is deep anger in parts of the country at the current government. In the referendum some boxes were over 90% no - well beyond the average. This was not captured by polling in the run up to the vote, and doesn't appear to be properly captured by polling currently.

The other issue is that Irish polling completely discounts the don't knows. The question seems to be put as: "if you must choose" or the don't know percentage is excluded. While don't knows are nothing new, the way they might break in a general election is unpredictable this time around in my view. This is down to emerging parties - who do not currently have candidates so will not feature in a poll. I am quite confident that Independent Ireland and the Farmers Alliance will take votes from FG primarily in rural constituencies, in election winning quantities.

The last issue is migration. The new and emerging parties are taking a harder line on this issue compared to FG and it's resonating.

I think it's quite possible that FG lose all their EU parliament members - since the constituencies are so big they turn into more of a ballot on the party direction over the individuals themselves, some notable independents excepted.

They will also lose a load of councillors too but the attrition might not be as bad due to local and personality factors.

We may well end up with a Dáil stuffed with independents and semi independents which will make the country ungovernable. That would be quite the legacy for FF, FG and the greens.

I think the point is, this Government is starting to look like the last days of the Fianna Fail govt in 2011, stumbling from one crisis to another, resignations after the next G.E. being announced every week. The point is - if they are wiped out in the Local Elections / Europeans, they will no longer have any legitimacy and a General Election will be inevitable.

Any hope of a Harris "bounce", and distancing himself from Leo, disappeared today when McEntee put it up to him publicly at the weekend and he folded. The Harris "bounce" collapsed today.

The Next General election will be on either Thr20, Fri21 or Sat22 of March next year. Simon Harris will want to have his day in the white house.

Time will quickly tell whether this hate speech legislation is a priority for Harris too. Early indicators are not good on that score.

Realistically it will take a while to negotiate a new coalition and programme for government so the election doesn't need to be that late for Harris to have his day in Washington. He will be Taoiseach until a new one is nominated by the Dail. I also think the election will be earlier due to any potential by-elections arising from current TDs winning seats in Europe.

Apparently Frances Fitzgerald is the reason that McEntee is still in Justice...

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/how-frances-fitzgerald-and-a-fear-of-the-civil-service-saved-helen-mcentee-her-job/a2056415841.html

But the Irish Independent can also reveal details of the intense lobbying behind the scenes that influenced Mr Harris’s choices over recent days.

Former tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald is said to have been instrumental in saving Justice Minister Helen McEntee from demotion.

As for Harris himself. My view of him remains the same as it was when he first came to prominence - someone acting in the role but with nothing to back it up. I still remember the first time I saw him on TV. He looked like he'd borrowed his older brother's suit for the day. Completely uninspiring.

Despite the predictable protests of some here, he's failed in every brief he's had and is far more concerned with social media grandstanding and optics than results - although in that sense I suppose he's actually the perfect person to replace Leo.

He's a caretaker Taoiseach. Only in the role because of internal party politics and many senior figures stepping back. It'll be hard to see how he'll be taken seriously, particularly abroad!

It would be nice to be proven wrong, but somehow I doubt he's up to the task.

MickeyD is like 'oh get a room you two'

Id say her judgement is based on connections and personal feelings like most politicians.

He can't be any worse then his predecessor.

I think Harris's strengths insofar as he has them are his marketing and sales skills. He has the talk and the right phrases and knows how to string them together. But when you sit back and listen, you quickly realise there's little of real substance there. Given his track record in health, you'd wonder how on earth he's managed to persuade others than he can organise the whole shebang.

I probably should have said last seat. In 2020 FG picked up a lot of these. Next time around they may not and they may end up without TDs in a lot of areas.

I find it hard to see them getting less than 30 but if Ivan Yates is predicting less I wouldn't dismiss it as him not allowing for the increase in TDs. Of course he may have made the predictions quite some time ago prior to the redraw.

SF dropping in the polls will not directly help FF or FG (voters giving them number 1) but it may get them the final seat.

Should I book a day off to mind the kids as the school will be closed?

I didn't realise you spoke for everyone

It was O'Donovan's sting operation that revealed Harris was the cabinet leak over the dodgy Zappone appointment. He leaked it to smear Coveney and it worked. Harris of course denied it but he never raised the complaint that he threatened so meakly.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/junior-fine-gael-minister-odonovan-boasted-about-cabinet-sting-operation/40859260.html

Mr Harris said Mr Carthy’s RTÉ interview was “quite extraordinary” and that he was “going to consider very strongly” a complaint to the Dáil Committee on Procedure following the remarks.

Obviously Harris didn't raise a complaint because it was true.

😂 this spoofer is now Taoiseach…New Politics?

Apart from a few journalists, who in their right mind would care if our Taoiseach gives a bowl of shamrock to the sitting US president.

Does it matter to anyone here?