What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

What are the bookies basing this on?

According to the latest RealClear battleground polls, Trump is ahead in all but one of those states (Pennsylvania), where Biden leads by .1%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

Now, most of the leads in the battlegrounds states are within typical margins of error, so it certainly is not as if those couldn't flip for Biden, but it's not an encouraging trend of numbers at this point.

There are people who say those numbers will change as more people in the US become politically aware as the election gets closer. Has that kind of reversal happened much before, and at what time in the election year does it typically happen? After the conventions?

At what point, if the numbers don't change, should people become concerned?

and unsuccessfully at that. Kari Lake tried to denounce the activation of the 1864 law except everyone was quick to point out she proudly and on the record touted the law as being activated if the Supreme Court overturned Roe and how it would be a wonderful thing.

The economic argument will obviously be very important for moderate voters who are moderate in the sense that they don't really care who's in power so long as they're more chance of making money.

Trump has erroneously claimed that he built the greatest economy in history (because of course he would), completely ignoring the work that the Obama administration did to rebalance the books after the 2008 economic crash. It's an easy rebuttal to make whenever Trump waffles on about this. But in regard of what Biden has done for the US economy, how much of the 2021 recovery can be attributed to places just reopening after lockdown? As to jobs created after that, what quality are they? I remember David Cameron crowing about what his party had done for the UK economy, but it turned out a lot of the jobs created were bullshít zero hours things. Is Biden's administration falling into the same kind of trap, or are they proper jobs with benefits and decent pay and something to build a life around?

And I've seen this idea of the 'shy Biden voter' being mooted for states that would be considered red or Republican-leaning. It was definitely true that in the 2022 midterms, the Republicans were scuppered by voter pushback due to things like reproductive rights being on the ballot and the red wave was denied.

However, while the shy Biden voter may well be a thing, I don't think that it can be assumed that those people will turn out in November just because. If nothing else was learned from 2016, it's that complacency is a killer. Biden's campaign team must absolutely be pounding the pavement as if those swing state deficits are accurate.

Trump pretends to forget he had the RNC pull out of the commission on presidential debates after Biden whooped him senseless in the one and only debate in 2020

https://www.mediaite.com/news/bullsht-trump-rages-at-biden-with-baseless-crime-accusation-demands-debate-in-series-of-video-rants/

Very much so, if those polls are considered to accurate, but less so if the assumption sets in that the polls are incorrect and there's actually a large latent Biden base out there.

Gonna stick €200 on trump winning.

If he does, I'll make a few bob.

If he doesn't, I'd gladly lose the €200 to know he'll never be president again.

Beau of the fifth column called the GOP the dog that caught the car. It's a good description. Beau's worth watching excellent commentary.

The bookies are often wrong, as are the polls, well thats what I'm told whenever I post betting odds or a poll on here.

A week is a long time in politics and theres still 7 months to go to the election so alot can and will happen between now and then.

Alot of these states are hard to call, there are so many variables at play.

Trump needs to appeal more to the independent voter, but it looks like he wont change tack.

"Trump needs to appeal more to the independent voter, but it looks like he wont change tack"

Agreed. Hell, he's even ostracizing the regular republicans (Haley voters included).

premiering next month at Cannes, starting Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/donald-trump-movie-the-apprentice-sebastian-stan-cannes-1235871795/amp/

An Iranian, who's worked for Disney before, has made a movie about Donnie. Doesn't take a lot of mental power to imagine how the MAGAs would react to this; espeically if the movie illustrates Donnie as a villain.

That's something I wonder too. How will the movie show him? As the self-important narcissist we know him as…or will they show him as a more sympatetic character, an awkward wierdo who's just despriate for Fred Trump's approval? Will it have any impact on the campaign?

I guess that's all moot, as it doesn't matter unless people actually watch it. Maybe it does show up Trump as the villain, prompting Donnie to loudly denounce the film, and thus gifting the film a tonne of viewers via the Streisand Effect.

He was hoping that the "it's the States decision" position would take off the National election table but of course it actually has had the opposite effect.

And he can't say he wasn't warned

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/10/trump-arizona-abortion-supreme-court-ruling/

In saying that abortion should be left up to the states in a video message Monday, and emphasizing his support for exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, Trump sought to take abortion as an electoral issue off the table for Democrats. Yet, Democrats have taken Trump’s comments as an endorsement of state abortion bans and point to Arizona as the latest example. Close Trump advisers warned him for months that taking a states’ rights position would force him to comment on each state’s abortion policies,