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NBA 23/24:season

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  • Registered Users Posts: 38,275 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I watched the NCAA national championship last night. I try to catch a game at least once every week or so during the season.

    UConn won their second consecutive championship with a great performance.

    The reason I'm posting though is because it blows my mind that Zach Edey isn't considered the undisputed no.1 prospect this year. He's just incredible and he's a giant at 7'4". He's won consecutive NCAA player of the year awards and pretty much every other award going. After he won it again this year I heard the commentators say that the only other players who have won it in consecutive years are in the hall of fame.

    Hes currently being projected as a late first round pick.

    Last night he had 37 points and 10 rebounds in a low scoring game where his team was dominated for long stretches of the game. In case you don't know he plays for Purdue, the team that was beaten by 15 points last night.

    He finished the season first in scoring average and second in rebounds. He was high up in both the year before too.

    And for me he passes the eye test too, he's just a consistent, dominant player. He's not the fastest and he's certainly not an outside shooter but he's so good in the paint at both ends of the floor. If you have a couple of good outside shooters he's going to post huge numbers every game.

    Last night he was matched up against one of the top prospects in this year's draft, that's Donovan Clingan, who was was fancied to shut him down but he couldn't do it, nobody could do it and he was double and even triple covered at times. He'll be a game changing player for whoever gets him.



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    He doesn't pass the eye test though, imo. His footwork is slow and laboured, he's noticeably less efficient going to his left and he simply isn't quick enough to slide as required defensively. Finally, he shot two three point shots all year, zero in tournament play. This is after shooting zero three point shots the previous three years. Absolutely he dominates against this level of competition and imo he blew a hole last night in the draft projections I've seen where Clingan is ahead of him.

    Like you can contextualise this in terms of last night's game. He got lobbed over twice in the second half where he just couldn't gather his feet and set to jump and challenge. As the second half wore on Clingan just hung on his right shoulder and forced him into tougher shots. He is able to work a lot in the college game one on one, where doubling him allows an easy pass out to an open shooter.

    It isn't hard to understand why he is considered a later 1st round prospect. The demands of the NBA are completely different in terms of spacing, needing Centres to stretch out to defend the line, requiring centres to work offensively in the pick and roll. His athleticism is marginal in those contexts.

    Don't hear what I'm not saying here - Edey is one of the greatest college players ever, and certainly the best player of the last 30 years. But it would be a misappropriation of a lottery pick to select him high in the 1st round. He absolutely could carve out a role in the NBA, where his size and touch around the rim allows rotational flexibility and the ability to pressure opponents out of small ball lineups. But it is highly highly unlikely he becomes a 25 min plus starter on a winning team.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    There's no real standouts in this years draft imo, certainly looking like the weakest top 3/5 in a while



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,472 ✭✭✭✭2smiggy


    finally down to the business end of the season. as a celtics fan the last month or so has been fairly boring.

    While I think they will win their first round, the heat or 76'ers is a nasty first round



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Yesterday was probably the most exciting final day of a regular season ever, but I agree generally that the season ends up becoming a grind from January every year. It is obvious that there are too many games, and there is too long a stretch each year where a big chunk of the league is no longer trying. Some of the lineups put on the floor by lottery teams the last six weeks have been completely unserious.

    It's such a weird phenomenon when every serious analyst of basketball knows there are too many games; the players and coaches know there are too many games / too many back to backs; the fans are bored for a good two month stretch to end the season; and yet there is zero appetite for change.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    But nonetheless, very exciting final week. Denver losing the 1st seed arguably won't matter as I can see them having home advantage in the conference finals anyway. The Clippers and Mavs will be eyeing up that second round tie against the Thunder and thinking they can do something there.

    Great hustle from the Suns last few weeks against a relatively challenging schedule (filled with teams still trying) to get the 6th seed and week off. The Pelicans losing four straight killed them, and the Lakers absolutely destroyed them last night. I would say a very disappointing outcome for New Orleans to end up in the Play In again.

    Really can't see any of the West Play in 4 coming through and seriously challenging Oklahoma / Denver. For the Lakers and the Warriors, if they make it they make it with a lack of rest coming into the opener. While the Pelicans and Kings just don't look good enough to me, to win a series against either of the top two seeds.

    In the East, the Knicks getting the second seed would have Embiid and Philly thinking they can do something, maybe, if they can win on Wednesday. I think the 8th seed is a death sentence mind, Boston are a superior outfit this year and should lack any sense of complacency.

    Really struggling to see beyond Boston. Whereas the West seems genuinely open. Absolutely advantage Denver, but the Clippers and Mavs and Suns are all very good teams, equipped with enough fire power to last a series against anyone. I expect the best basketball over the next six weeks to all come from the West.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,690 ✭✭✭Corvo


    Lakers facing Denver in the first round is a death knell, there's nothing changed from their WCF tie and they can't handle Jokic in any way shape or form (in fairness, no one can) barring just throwing bodies at him and hoping the whistle goes your way….unless there was a spate of injuries to Murray etc. then I think it'll be a quick and comprehensive beating.

    Boston in the East of course are the best and the Nuggets/Celtics bet at 11/5 for the final is looking very attractive though I am wary of an Embild led 76ers plowing through if hes back fit and firing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    I agree it's a death knell, but I still think they want to win on Tuesday and forget any messing around of trying to lose and play Oklahoma instead. If you want to win a championship you probably have to play Denver anyway, so may as well try and do it when fresh, give it your best shot and whatever happens, happens.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    I guess I'll start watching those Cooper Flagg highlights…

    In good news the play-in starts tonight! I'd expect these games to be a lot more competitive than some of the first round series.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Lakers beat the Pels to make the playoffs.

    Golden State fall to Sacramento so they face off in NOLA for the 8 seed and the opportunity to lose to OKC.

    Klay shot 0-10 😬



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,690 ✭✭✭Corvo


    Zion was absolutely brilliant last night and will pose a serious challenge to Golden State, that's if he is fit



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,690 ✭✭✭Corvo




  • Registered Users Posts: 38,275 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Yeah it was all tied up with three months minutes remaining and nawlins had momentum when Zion got hurt. He was fantastic all night.



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Pour one out for the Warriors Dynasty. Incredible ~decade of great basketball, transformed the game and imo the 2017 version are easily the greatest single season team of all time.

    Klay going out on 0 - 10 shooting is a monument to the cold stark reality of sport and the way in which time is always undefeated in the end.

    Time to rebuild, Curry could have a couple of useable years yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Excited to see what they do this summer, blow it up and retool around Curry or just let the Steph, Klay, and Dray ride out their careers in GS.

    I'm not even sure what trade value Dray and Klay have anymore. Is it worth trading them for scraps just to get Steph a slightly better team for a year?



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    So Klay is a UFA. Unless he's willing to take an incredibly team friendly deal with a significant pay cut, he's gone.

    Paul is a team option for $30m, seeya.

    Draymond is a tough one. Essentially three years left on his contract through his age 36 season. Could be a difficult player to trade in the offseason. He's still a good defender and cog guy. I do struggle to visualise him adding value to a contender on that deal elsewhere, all the same.

    It's probably Klay and Paul gone, reducing 73m in salary and getting them below the first apron. Bit of chopping of role / depth guys also. Will leave them an ability to add someone on a mid range contract, and maybe another MLE type add. For this to be a very significant rebuild they need to find suitors for Dray or Wiggins or both…



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    But I do think we move into 'what's next?' too quickly in analysis. The greatness of the splash bros + Dray cannot be underestimated, and deserves a moment to be remembered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Lifetime ban for Jontay Porter for betting on games including betting on his own team to lose.



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    People sometimes get confused about the severity and / or length of these bans but it's absolutely essential to bring the hammer down. Betting companies are becoming key sponsors of US pro sports and are helping to perpetuate engagement. I'd say Silver is delighted that the player being made an example of is so peripheral. But my expectation would be that ANY star who had done this would be treated similarly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Philly just about get past Miami, winning the honour of getting to face the Knicks in the first round.

    Play-in games on Friday night now to determine the 1v8 matchup:

    Boston vs Miami/Chicago

    OKC vs NOLA/SAC



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,792 ✭✭✭irishguitarlad


    Nico Batum was huge in that game, absolute warrior.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    The people of Charlotte must HATE him. Played like he was a week away from retiring his whole time there and now he's still in the league 4 years on



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,690 ✭✭✭Corvo


    Fingers crossed that Jimmy Butler is somehow magically fit for the Bulls game, but injury looks serious enough



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,815 ✭✭✭✭Zero-Cool


    I really like Jimmy but if Bulls have any chance to make layoffs, we could definitely do without Jimmy playing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,680 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Yeah it's one thing to say we need to have a conversation around the prevalence of gambling ads/sponsorships in the NBA and them being shoved in players' faces….but Jontay Porter isn't just someone with a gambling addiction, he was explicitly placing bets against himself; match fixing. It's a pretty cut and dry reason for a lifetime ban.



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,275 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Tyler Herro putting on a show with playoff Jimmy out.

    He's looking like having a triple double with 8 assists, 9 rebounds and 21 points at the end of the third. Heat lead by 22.

    One of the assists was ridiculous, a behind the back flick out from the paint to Wright who buries the three.



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Well, with the play in over, always a good time to consider those teams in the league living in the nether region of having zero championship equity while trying to win:

    Chicago: a nightmare nothing of an org and the purported potential return of Lonzo to pick up his player option for next year will hardly help. It all needs to be torn down

    Sacramento: becoming very obviously a team with zero championship equity. Sabonis is an empty stat padding regular season warrior, who will never bring enough to win multiple playoff series

    For Atlanta, losing Young will force a rebuild and Golden State can move on from Klay and try to make something work around Steph.

    But the likes of Chicago, Sacramento and Brooklyn are in hell. More years of irrelevance await. It is also stunning at this time of year to realise how many of the lottery teams don't actually own their own pick. So many franchises run so horribly for so long, boggles the brain sometimes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Denver have the Laker’s number in every which way. During this extended run of wins in succession (now a 9 - 0 run) there has been a sense watching the games that Denver have levers to pull in reserve each time.

    Jokic / Murray > > LBJ / Davis at this stage of their careers, time catches up to everyone.

    Then around that core disparity the Denver role players are way more consistent, being coached into more natural rotations and patterns. I honestly don’t fathom how Lakers win a game off them at this point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,690 ✭✭✭Corvo


    The Denver series was always going to be absolute murder for the Lakers and I don't want to blame anyone in particular but for them to have any hope of winning a game in this series then D'Lo has to turn up, he is arguably the number two on offense on certain nights and well…he was horrific. The thing is this wasn't our first rodeo with playoff D'Lo and there was ample evidence from last year that this would occur. He has games to turn it around but I am not hopeful.

    The above combined with some terrible coaching and the genuine brilliance of Denver and the sweep is on again. I also agree that Denver have another gear or two in them.

    I seen an interesting stat on Reddit.

    Denvers organised offense % by quarter

    Q1: 68%

    Q2: 68%

    Q3: 67%

    Q4: 67%

    Lakers organised offense % by quarter

    Q1: 67%

    Q2: 55%

    Q3: 45%

    Q4: 39%

    Guess which team tracks this and which doesn't



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  • Registered Users Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Yeah D'Lo is the key, he got played off the court last year but I understand why they feel they need to stick with him. He was absolutely atrocious on Saturday, the box score doesn't do it justice. But the issue is trying to bring enough offensively at all times to make Jamal have to defend. If you have a Vando type out there or even a Dinwiddie / Vincent you can say that you have an on ball disrupter, but the real way to get at Murray is to make it so he can't hide off on the backside on D, with his hands on his knees.

    But make no mistake about it, the Lakers are not bringing their best game. Really lacking in details defensively on Saturday:

    I also can't stand Prince getting prioritised over Rui, he plays with such little physicality defensively and has no diversity in his offensive game. Rui cuts to the baseline effectively and really tries on D, has to be a better option.

    In the end, the biggest problem is that Jokic just gets what he wants, how he wants and when he wants against the Lakers. Neither LeBron or Davis can guard him effectively, so it makes the rest academic. He languidly gets his 30+ point double double in the way that best suits Denver's specific needs on the night and that's that. All the ways in which this is a terrible matchup for the Lakers flows from that core reality.



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