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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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    #109862
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,317 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    There is an argument that prolonging the misery at least leaves open the possibility of future improvement, as opposed to guaranteeing perpetual loss. As long as Ukrainians are willing to endure the misery, I think it reasonable enough to continue to help them pending that future. Who are we to tell them they are wrong? Besides, their opposition are just as miserable. I know if I’m not enjoying a place I am visiting, I just turn around and go home. Always an option for them…



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    #109863
    Gerry T
    Registered Users Posts: 1,441 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

    What this, and the next, and the next aid package will do is bleed Russia further. At some point the people under Putin will decide, before they fall out a window to take Putin out. Then this war, like many other wars Russia has lost will end the same way. Russia with its tail between its legs going back to Russia, claiming some mind boggling victory as most people will not even bother to pass comment on.

    The fun will be as the now imposed sanctions continue this year, next year, the year after, the decade after and the decade after that. At what point will Russia decide to pay for reparations in Ukraine, because they will, one day.



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    #109864
    Virgil°
    Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

    This aid package will do nothing, other than prolong the misery a bit longer for those Ukrainian troops. There's no chance of them winning.

    From the bottom of my heart I want to thank you 😍! I legitimately mean that. The fact that you (our most recent Russian apologist) is here complaining about this must mean that something good has happened. And that it will most likely effect great change on the battlefield.

    A hit dog will holler and all that. I didn't bother reading the rest of that scutter. Not worth the muscle movement of my eyeballs.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086328#Comment_122086328

    JFC! That's some area of effect. I can't even imagine what it would feel like to be standing in a shrapnel storm like that.



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    #109865
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,086 ✭✭✭threeball


    Possibly more devasting for the troops that survived and now must head to the frontline than for those killed in the strike. Major psychological hurdle to overcome before you even reach the front.



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    #109866
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,564 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

    Plus, they've annexed these territories into their federation, so whomever takes over next will be constitutionally bound to protect those territories permanently into the future.

    There is so much wrong with this statement.

    Firstly and most importantly, they don't control almost 50% of what they claim to have "annexed". Kherson is a city of almost 300,000 people and Russia claim it as theirs yet do not control it. Given they have taken 40-50k causalities to take cities of 20k people prior to the war, that they have turned to rubble it is absurd to think they are in a position to take Kherson across a river.

    Secondly, Russia have oft claimed that attacks on Russian soil would bring nuclear consequences. These territories are attacked every single day. As well as Crimea and sometimes Russian territory itself. They are just full of ****.

    Thirdly, Russia is engaged in a war of conquest with no fixed goal. Ukrainians are defending their homeland and their lives. If one of these parties is going to reach the end of their tether sooner it is the **** going to die for no real reason.

    Also, lol that you think the Russian constitution means ****.



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    #109867
    zerosquared
    Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Hmm now I get it

    IMG_4827.png



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    #109868
    Field east
    Registered Users Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭Field east


    Following on from post no 109370 , all the talk about Putin carrying out another round of conscriptions to resource the Ru front lines and the main Ru war strategy of winning the war by using shear numbers to physically overwhelm the Ukr army, I am wondering if all the deaths on the Ru side - reported as between 500 to 100 daily- will have an negative on The number of volunteers ‘willing’to join the Ru army.
    Your typical Russian , eligible for conscription, must be aware of all these deaths - strewn across the forests/fields not to mention the injured. In this age of ICT with injured soldiers returning from the front, dead bodies being returned for burial , communication via mobile phones, access thru telegram channels the potential individuals eligible for mobilisation must be very aware of the level of death in the war and the level of injury not to say the number of MIA - and Putin , as reported, shortly plans to ‘recruit’ another 500,000 for the front lines/ meat grinder

    My core point is ‘ can he keep up this level of intensity to keep the front lines as active as they are at the moment -gaining the proverbial km a day while losing hundreds to achieve it ie gaining ground?



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    #109869
    zv2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,740 ✭✭✭zv2


    Interesting

    https://twitter.com/UaCoins/status/1785734894770934145

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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    #109870
    zerosquared
    Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    The last few pages talked about overestimating and underestimating Putin and Russia

    This pod today does a retrospective of last two years just on this topic

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/52uVNnHDa09Dx2wlauLdAb?si=awdPMwmpQGSlYl1ML5-D0Q

    In short both sides are right to certain degrees at certain points in time but the picture is complicated, some excellent points raised in above



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    #109871
    Poon Tang
    Registered Users Posts: 92 ✭✭Poon Tang


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086570#Comment_122086570

    There's going to be increasing pressure put on every subsequent aid package that the US tries to get through. And the ones that do get through, are inevitably going to keep getting smaller over time. And if Trump gets in, I doubt he'll be happy about sinking more and more money into some endless war. He has always been dead set against this with previous US overseas military engagements.

    Most of the world are not sanctioning Russia. They have plenty of viable trading partners throughout the world, and crucially have lots of important resources in abundant quantities that nations desperately need. Particularly developing nations, which Russia and China are strategically aligned with in the BRICS and SCO etc. Russia will have plenty of economic potential going forward.

    I would fully expect Russia to help rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure, once the conflict has concluded. But only if it ends favourably for them and they are satisfied with the security situation.



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    #109872
    eightieschewbaccy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,526 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

    Is that rebuild gonna happen post ethnic cleansing? You seem to be more and more intent on portraying Russia as a reasonable invader.



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    #109873
    zerosquared
    Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087020#Comment_122087020

    Considering that the parts of Donetsk and Crimea they stole a decade ago are complete dumps to this day, his post becomes even more hilarious



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    #109874
    zv2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,740 ✭✭✭zv2


    !!!!

    https://twitter.com/AncientAlien01/status/1785755177372266628

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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    #109875
    pcardin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭pcardin


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

    Moderator, please…save us from this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86P8SnEnF0g



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    #109876
    Say my name
    Registered Users Posts: 11,412 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Is this normal civilised behaviour @Poon Tang ?

    http://twitter.com/sotanews/status/1785664238008090973

    Is Russia now a failed state?

    Because it looks from the outside to have fallen off a cliff into the abyss.



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    #109877
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭wassie


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

    Most of the world are not sanctioning Russia. They have plenty of viable trading partners throughout the world, and crucially have lots of important resources in abundant quantities that nations desperately need.

    Really? Might want to have a read of this actual news article.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-think-tank-warns-stagnating-industrial-output-investment-2024-04-27/

    "Russia's industrial production and investments are stagnating, its exports of goods are continuing to deteriorate and profitability in most industries is declining, a think tank close to the government has said in a report.The Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting issued its downbeat assessment on Saturday, also warning about a shortage of imported components and raw materials."



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    #109878
    Polar101
    Registered Users Posts: 3,839 ✭✭✭Polar101


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087098#Comment_122087098

    It's definitely a unique angle to invasion and destruction. Russia are only murdering people and destroying cities so that they can help Ukraine rebuild. Could someone ring the propaganda show on Russian TV and suggest they start pushing this angle?



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    #109879
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085004#Comment_122085004

    In the first scenario, where Russia uses a limited nuclear strike on a European civilian target in an attempt to deter NATO from responding, NATO is unlikely to reciprocate in kind, but instead cause significant damage to the Russian nuclear arsenal or other military assets. An attack on Russian SLBM submarines, for example, or conventional strikes on the Russian base at Engels would be the more likely response. Something that causes a substantial loss of capability to the Russians while causing minimal civilian casualties and leaving Putin in the situation of being militarily weakened for no real gain, with the next move up to him. It would also be played as a way of preventing further nuclear strikes rather than escalating matters in the media, although in reality it would be a pretty clear escalation if it results in the USA having greater nuclear strike potential.

    In relation to a conventional invasion, the war in Ukraine has taught several important lessons:

    1. Conventional war in Europe, even when involving a nuclear armed state, is possible;
    2. Static defences are an effective barrier to slow or even stop the Russian army, and the Baltic states are now investing in a significant amount of border infrastructure;
    3. Russian ISR, logistics and co-ordination at a strategic level is poor and liable to disruption by superior NATO technology if used

    The net effect of all of the above is that NATO is now in a position to meaningfully prepare effective defences which can halt any invasion within relative close proximity to the border and from there cut Russian supply lines and use strategic airpower to prevent them from making any significant progress. If NATO really were involved in Ukraine, does anyone seriously think that the Russian army would be still capable of fighting there?



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    #109880
    Say my name
    Registered Users Posts: 11,412 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Dzhokhar Dudayev, Chechan independence leader murdered by the Russian military. His body was killed but his words live on in streets named after him and his insight into Russia and Ukraine.

    http://twitter.com/Kathryn86582980/status/1785751328897077617



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    #109881
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 8,154 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087500#Comment_122087500

    If Russia carries out a nuclear strike any target on a NATO country the only effective response would be to launch an all out nuclear response on all military facilities and missile sites in Russia. Spearheaded by stealth bombers and low altitude cruise missiles. Its nuclear submarine fleet would also be destroyed by NATO submarines.



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    #109882
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

    What we have seen very clearly is that there just aren't the votes or political capital in withholding aid from Ukraine that the MAGA Republicans once thought there was. Trump has given up on his opposition to same, not out of a moral principle, but because it is not worth it to him. As I argued before, the US population getting tired of Ukraine does not mean it is harder for Congress to pass financial aid bills, but it actually makes it easier. No one cares, therefore it is no longer controversial. So even in a Trump Presidency, it will be a lot easier to pass Ukrainian aid.

    The massive Russian influence campaign had one chance at stopping Ukraine aid and they failed. MTG will continue on giving out about it, but no one else cares.

    Most of the world may not be sanctioning Russia, but the part of the world that has lots of money and high tech goods that Russia needs are. Russia has a large amount of natural resources so its need for other trading partners with similar resources is minimal. Their need for high tech finished products is high, and right now only China will sell to them, which means that China sets the price.

    China isn't strategically aligned with Russia - as every day passes, Russia becomes strategically aligned with China. That is an important distinction.

    Russia was trading with BRICS and SCO countries before the war. They are continuing to do so, and perhaps using some of those countries to bypass sanctions, but this just means that they are paying a higher price.

    I'm sure that Russia will rebuild occupied Ukraine to the same standard that the other Russian provinces are.



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    #109883
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,434 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

    Most of the world are not sanctioning Russia. They have plenty of viable trading partners throughout the world, and crucially have lots of important resources in abundant quantities that nations desperately need. Particularly developing nations, which Russia and China are strategically aligned with in the BRICS and SCO etc. Russia will have plenty of economic potential going forward.

    There's a real Brexiteer "They need us more than we need them" energy to this.



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    #109884
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087664#Comment_122087664

    I don't really understand. An all out strike would most likely involve them launching ICBMs. The B2s are all based in continental US and I'm not aware of any nuclear cruise missiles. They did have the AGM129, but I think that was a silly thing and it would be a risky system for deploying strategic nuclear weapons.

    But in any event, while there is a theory that once the nuclear taboo is broken then it will inevitably lead to a full scale nuclear exchange, in reality this is unlikely. If Russia carried out a limited nuclear strike, they would be watching intently to see the reaction. If they observe that the reaction is to launch ICBMs, they will launch theirs in response. The outcome is mutually assured destruction.

    If you assume that the attacker does not intend to cause an all out exchange (which is a reasonable assumption because, if they did want that, they would have launched an all out attack themselves) then it is also reasonable to assume that the defender will tailor their response to ensure that it provides sufficient deterrent for the attacker not to try it again while at the same time not being such an escalation that it does lead to an all out exchange.

    So in the event that there is a nuclear attack, it is not a binary that the response will either be nothing (capitulation) or everything (all out launch), but instead there are multiple different options depending on how much escalation/deterrence is judged to be appropriate.



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    #109885
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 8,154 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087859#Comment_122087859

    Well I'm sure the scenarios have been studied and worked out already. The Russians will have their's too, if there is a limited response they may go again and so it goes on. Remember that the first strike will have a distinct advantage as it would destroy the capacity to respond. Cruise missiles can be armed with nuclear warheads too.



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    #109886
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,434 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


     I'm not aware of any nuclear cruise missiles

    @johnnyskeleton I think the B-52 fleet still has a nuclear ALCM.



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    #109887
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087821#Comment_122087821

    Meh, it's the usual regurgitated reading from the Russian rolodex of spin. Note how he almost never responds to direct questions? If he does respond it's with more of the above. Any actual debate is frowned upon, either because they can't or if they do they know it won't follow the script, so that's verboten.

    And this is at the "smarter" end of their spin. Currently that runs the same basic threads: Negotiated peace/BRICS will save us/Sanctions don't matter/There are worse than Putin waiting in the wings/Why is the West™ spending so much on war when your own people are starving?

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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    #109888
    Hoop66
    Registered Users Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088206#Comment_122088206

    What's also really obvious is the change in tone when one shift ends, and the new guy comes in. Our comrade was all "just asking questions" and then suddenly, in post #109369, gets much more aggressive.



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    #109889
    zerosquared
    Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1785597934005837992

    That seems like a win win



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    #109890
    zv2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,740 ✭✭✭zv2


    A lesson in bridge design

    image.png

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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    #109891
    RGARDINR
    Registered Users Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088459#Comment_122088459

    I honestly don't know why this wasn't given in the military package. This at the moment would be 1 of the best things to be given to Ukraine all of the US cluster ammo. Stop the Russian advances, try and give Ukraine a breather at the moment. This is the perfect thing for Ukraine to do this.



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