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Time for a zero refugee policy? - *Read OP for mod warnings and threadbans - updated 11/5/24*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten


    The University of Amsterdam absolutely attempted to disavow its involvement in the report, that is arguably indicative of the deteriorating social dialogue that led the Dutch Government to terminate economic reports on the relationship between immigration and economy in the first instance. Regardless, the findings of the report are consistent with a report published by the Danish Government and while you have commented on the report quite considerably, those comments have extended to the circumstances around the publication of the report only - have you any comments on the content of the report (appreciating that you obviously neglected to read the first few pages of the report until prompted to…) criticism of the methodology etc.?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Do you want to talk about the content of what gets self published on Dolores Cahill's website or maybe Gemma Doherty's?

    That's the level we're at here I'm afraid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten


    I disagree, it is patently obvious that you failed to engage with the report at all before dismissing it. What were your doubtlessly illuminating thoughts on Danish Government report that reflects the findings of the Dutch report?



  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭whatever.




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I'd expect they will charge the terrorist activity, where it meets the legislation.

    I'd expect in time they'll have to modernise the legislation more in line with the US definition of domestic terrorism.

    the term “domestic terrorism” means activities that— (A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State; (B) appear to be intended— (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States;

    I don't know how you get from that, or our existing legislation to claiming that 'anyone who criticises the position on immigration can be charged'

    Care to explain?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    What Dutch government report is this? You shared something in Dutch, if you've an English language version I can comment on it, on its own merits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten




  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭whatever.


    I will remember you made me look for this by not addressing the content cited

    https://gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/38323

    From Sweden, from memory each asylum seeker will constitute a net drain of 500,000 to 1 Million euro to the fiscal position.

    That's a university paper and peer reviewed.

    You now have a peer reviewed paper and our own departmental figures showing the seriousness of this state of affairs



  • Registered Users Posts: 51 ✭✭Ionraice


    Hmm. I agree. I also wonder how many political parties will keep their election promises about stricter control. I suspect, none of them will.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    That's a working paper, Where is it peer reviewed?

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/research-article-vs-working-paper-arhan-sthapit-phd#:~:text=A%20working%20paper%20is%20a,literature%20to%20further%20their%20studies.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,014 ✭✭✭eggy81


    I’d say I know just about as much as you do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I've already addressed the content you cited.

    We need to reduce costs drastically by moving from hotels etc.

    That's a working paper.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_paper



  • Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭Miharo


    Regardless of what you provide it will never be enough, if people don't want to face the reality and seriousness of the situation they simply won't and will continue to argue that black is white. Maybe they will come to their senses when the consequences effect them personally like we saw earlier in the week with Hazel Chu and Ivana Bacik suddenly changing their "Refugees welcome" tune when the tents moved to Ballsbridge.

    And it will effect them personally eventually, nobody will avoid the consequences. It's an unsustainable cluster **** that us and our children will be paying the cost of for a very long time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,385 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I read this long tweet about our international asylum obligations today. I found it helpful.

    I don't agree with him about leaving the EU, but his explanation is honest and detailed.

    Now, clearly, and by his own admission, this guy is not in the centre of the political spectrum.

    Is everything he states about our intl obligations true?

    If so, it seems like it will be difficult for us to control our borders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭whatever.


    It's not a working paper and it's impossible for you to have read it in that time

    The OECD perhaps you've heard of them, they cite it as a source, it's also published in Springer and Jstor and I'm not going to do your work for you, it is up to you to show where they are not robust, if you can't that means evidentiary acceptance.

    The OECD citation confirms it's validity



  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten


    At this point there are three different reports - one from Denmark, one from Sweden, one from the Netherlands - demonstrating that the net expense to the exchequer of non-Western immigrants and asylum seekers is between 1% and 1.7% of GDP…



  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭whatever.


    You've not addressed the costs, you'e just deflected from the question and even then the deflection weakens your pisition. Alternate accommodation carries a fiscal burden, only the removal of the asylum seeker from the state and repatriation would remove the fiscal burden



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    It said working paper on the title page, it was an early version. I don't have access to the full article, but I get the gist.

    The article below pretty much sums up my reaction.

    Essentially IPAs can show as contributing less to the economy because they're more likely to end up in low paid jobs or be restricted from working.

    That only shows us that these type of economic measurements don't capture the true value of much low paid work. A lot of childcare workers, hospital cleaners etc in Ireland would be measured as a 'drain' on the economy because they might be relying on income supports or HEPA. Are the net contributors though? Of course, see how well the country functions without them.

    It's quite a nasty and cheap angle to take really when you think about it.

    https://www.saisjournal.eu/article/81-Refugees-Are-Not-Fiscal-Burdens.cfm



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭suvigirl


    Same thing that posters on here have been saying for months.

    He did miss one thing though, even if we back out of human rights protections, our Constitution has protections, and the courts will uphold them.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten


    Is that factoring the unemployment rate as well?



  • Registered Users Posts: 54,282 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    I don't agree with some of that and like you especially leaving the EU part.


    "So, while we may not be able to stop every would-be asylum seeker from arriving in Ireland, we can make it a very unattractive option. We can make it so that those foolish enough to come soon want to leave."

    To make Ireland unattractive I would start with reducing their allowance even more (currently 38.80) and the biggest one for me is we remove the medical card which is absolutely nuts they get a medical card in the first place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten


    I agree but the fundamental metrics that require revision are the threshold for protection, the time-limits for protection, and the processing time for applications. Access to welfare and other reception conditions represents a certain degree of attraction to migrants but the primary measurement of attractiveness is the potential to remain in the State. At the moment, Ireland has a low threshold for protection, generous time-limits for protection, lengthy processing times, and low deportation rates, for this reason it is an ideal destination for migrants.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    That's the problem isn't it.

    This kind of analysis doesn't really factor anything in. There's no real context.

    In terms of unemployment rate, the most reliable figure I've seen for Ireland is about 60% for IPAs. I think that's pretty good given the historical restrictions on working etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,822 ✭✭✭Northernlily


    Bit of a segway but not really.

    I've lived in Ballsbridge 3 years now. Not once have I seen a proper supercar. Seems to be loads of Porsche 911s but that's the height of it.

    Today I passed 2 lambos on Baggott St. Wtf Unbeknownst to me as I was down West for the day, there was a car fair in Herbert Park. Lambos, McClaren F1s, Merc SLs.

    If anything from the misery of living in the tent. I hope the folks enjoyed it! I'm sure the word of the Dublin wealth will spread.



  • Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭Geert von Instetten


    If the argument is that, despite being a burden to the exchequer, they represent an integral demographic in the unskilled labour market then, ideally, there would be a high employment rate. Interestingly and ironically, the unemployment rate of asylum seekers in Sweden is attributed in part to the limited number of low-skilled employment opportunities in the Swedish labour market - for all the bluster on the importance of low-skilled labour, Sweden has a comparatively low requirement for it!



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 23,427 CMod ✭✭✭✭Ten of Swords


    No, they were deleted - you're welcome

    If you have anything else to contribute along these lines please do so in the Help Desk forum as doing so here is off topic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 157 ✭✭REDBULL68


    I'm sure water ways Ireland will get them moved on soon, the phoenix park is free, I'm sure when they arrive beside the presidents gaff ,they might do something ,then to where will the world rock up .



  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭DaithiMa


    That article you posted a link to is wishy washy. Zero figures or numbers on what the actual cost is. And he does the usual trick of conflating legal, working migrants (nurses, doctors etc.) with IPAs and Asylum Seekers. In the first paragraph of the 'Real Benefits of Migration' section he mentions doctors at least six times. It has been repeated ad nauseam that nobody has any issues with qualified workers coming here on visas. They aren't the ones sleeping in tents on the Grand Canal that require free acommodation or filling up hotels around the country.

    The entire artice can be perhaps summed up by the final line: "I am not saying that Sweden or the EU should admit refugees because it benefits Sweden and the EU. Sweden and the EU should admit refugees to defend and uphold human rights."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭whatever.


    At least you admit in your first paragraph you did not read the study

    Your third paragraph just confirms the poor integration of asylum seekers and their lifetime net negative costs

    Your fouth paragraph is an attempt to conflate all low paid work with asylum seekers, now this either confirms asylum seekers will always be a net negative drain even in employment or a greater net negative drain if not in employment and relient on welfare

    Your last sentence is derogatory and attempts to insult. Resources are a determining factot in the succes or failure of any policy, to simple discount them as non-sensical discounts the value of life affected

    Your referenced article is more about Modern Monetary Theory than it is about refugees and contains no data just supposition and indeed numerous paragraphs that reinforce (my) the opposing viewpoint, please find attached a selection



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