A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

US sanctions US chipmakers from exporting to Huawei. Just the start i fear, no doubt the Europeans will go along for the ride as well.

China is a hostile power and very forward about its intentions. It is an existential threat.

These things could easily affect business slow growth, job losses and increase prices especially with China. If you think it is a good thing for economies fair enough, but most would think it is not good

Well yes they do come around every 15 years or so and the cost of living keeps going up and up and up so it its going to burst at some point where people won't be able to pay their bills and then the companies won't be able to pay theirs.

I have a good few relatives in the US who are big Apple product fans but still can't internalise that their devices are not made in the US. "But Apple is a US brand, I don't want a phone made in Chyna!" Back in the 80s I can remember many of their parents talking about boycotting Japanese cars, but ironically they now swear by them!

We're a small outward looking globalised society so we're aware of the complexity of global trade, but anytime I converse with my US relatives, some who work in multinationals, I'm always amazed at how brand led they are as consumers. Some could be said about those Brits who think the profits from the sale of a Mini car stay in the UK because they've got Union Jack taillights.

Ironically the biggest losers in the sanctions on Huawei are the Korean and Taiwanese chip makers. TSCM availed of the grants to build a chip plant in Arizona, but that project has been frustrated by protectionist visa policies that curtail its viability. Meanwhile Apple's share of the Chinese market continues to shrink but China will happily continue to produce Apple products for the global market because China Inc makes roughly the same factory profit from all phones, be they domestic and foreign brands.

Working to death seems to be a regional olympics.

https://www.kedglobal.com/corporate-strategy/newsView/ked202404180009

Executives at all Samsung Group units will work six days a week from as early as this week in a shift to emergency mode. The move comes as the won's sharp depreciation, rising oil prices and high borrowing costs aggravate business uncertainties after some of the group's mainstay businesses delivered poorer-than-expected results in 2023.

The executives of Samsung Electronics Co., including those in the manufacturing and sales divisions, will work either on Saturday or Sunday following the regular five-day work week, according to Samsung Group officials.

As the old saying goes if you can't be a good example then you'll be have to be a horrible warning.

I thought capitalism would let badly run businesses fail.

The bailout of financials in many countries in 08 seemed more like cronyism, the socialisation of gambling debts.

I can chime with all that.

I just wonder how all the contradicting narratives of the current setup will unwind. Warren Buffet is hailed as some kind of high priest of capitalism yet nearly 40% of his portfolio is made up of just Apple stock, a company that relies on socialist China to produce 95% of its products.

I can remember Buffet once saying he wouldn't buy tech stock because he didn't understand it, but he is now balls deep. Does this mean US capitalism has itself been bought out?

Indeed.

It seems that in the likes of China capitalism does exist in way that it didn't in the USSR.

China seems to allow and even reward domestic capitalism if it helps build structural wealth and economic self reliance, which after the century of shame would be a national aspiration. At the same time get too successful and you'll be reminded, like Jack Ma.

I remember reading a history of the internal wars in the 1920s and 30s and how the KMT could not regain control over areas where previously the CCP had ousted landlords and given the land ownership to those who actually toiled the land. The writers described these newly landed as little capitalists who'd fight to the death under the banner of the CCP rather than subserve to hierarchical feudalism. The newly uplifted were also afforded education, especially for woman which had been restricted under the old feudal model.

In the context of the discussion of this thread I just find the juxtapositions interests, the capitalist with socialised debt in the west, and the welfare state capitalism of Europe and China.

capitalism is inherently unstable, hence why elements of protectionism are required, we can clearly see what happens as more and more 'pure' capitalism based policies are implemented, it basically falls ta sh1t. if we left such forms of capitalism off, the planet would clearly fall over with the amount of damage that would be done, making it impossible for human habitation, its a difficult balancing act….

It’s not just protectionism of a countries industry at play here there is a big geopolitical part to play whether that is to slowdown the development of weapons or a space race for a new energy source or energy farm.

If it was just economics then yeah protectionism means we all loose out in the long run.

As for claims of it being anti china that’s rubbish as all the powers are all playing the same game and doing similar where they have the ability to do so. China deliberately keeps its currency under valued and provide massive state aid which is no different to USA insisting that US boats must be used in certain circumstances or the EU imposing larger import tariffs. Wait until EU increase tariffs on Chinese EV’s in the next year or two you will hear that it’s protectionism but in reality it’s adjusting for a artificially low exchange rate and state support and is more about a level playing field.

Even UK has pulled out of their shallow recession

Got a general guesstimate on when this recession will kick off? Cause you seem to be attributing everything to causing a global recession but it's been two years since this thread has started.

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