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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The trouble with this waste thing is that an energy plant needs a near continuous source of input, and agricultural waste is seasonal, being sunlight driven. The amount of enviro BS is monumental. The UK builds a massive bio fuel plant and then the whole waste argument turns out to be a lie as there isn't enough waste, so they feed it the worst thing you could possibly imagine if you actually are concerned with the real environment: old growth virgin forests. You couldn't make it up. They publicly state it only runs on waste, but it takes a BBC team who have to engage in virtual espionage levels of spying and surveilance to discover the truth. As with so much eco-BS, it also runs on burn't money, absolutely vast sums of money extracted from taxpayers:

    The government has handed energy companies £22bn in billpayer-backed
    subsidies to burn wood for electricity despite being unable to prove the
    industry meets sustainability standards, the government’s spending
    watchdog has said.

    Biomass as an energy source is a crock of sh​it. Look at those masters of eco-BS, the Norwegians, with the BEVs and their eco self-delusion. A lot of their district heating is made to look green because it's fuel source is forrest biomass and bio-oil.

    Just look at that, isn't it just so pristine, peachy keen, and squeeky clean? Got to love those apex eco bullshi​tters, the Norwegians

    What they are actually doing in order to look good and salve their eco-conscience, of which they have near zero IMO, is burning money, which comes from exploiting fossil fuels, which they do like like an apex predator tearing into it's first kill in two weeks

    Biofuels have been promoted in the political sphere because their
    production is dependent on subsidies that narrow the gap between
    production costs and market prices.

    The production of advanced, or “second-generation”, biofuels is even
    more dependent on effective subsidy systems, as the technologies have
    not yet become commercialised. These fuels are produced from raw
    ingredients that do not compete with food production, such as leftovers
    and waste from the food industry, agriculture or forestry.

    In order to develop advanced biofuels, the subsidy systems must be
    stable and in place long enough to enable acceptable levels of
    large-scale and profitable production, as well as the production of
    profitable side streams, such as chemicals or other by-products that can
    be sold at a premium.

    let's have some more eco-BS, can never have enough when the taxpayer is paying so much for it in subsidies and you are the clever-clogs being paid to produce copy to sell the eco-vision to the idiots paying for it all. Stuff like this:

    Do we have enough biomass to manufacture biofuels?
    Many people forget that bioenergy is the leading form of renewable energy. In fact, it is responsible for as much energy as all the other forms of renewable energy put together. This is proof of the importance of bioenergy, which will play a key role in the future energy mix.

    Have you got your head around that? Are you in the least bit sceptical? Heaven fobid you are a sceptical cynic like me, who detects a whiff of open sewer when reading that. What's the truth? Bingo!

    In 2014, renewable energy accounted for 14% of the world’s global total primary energy supply, according to the International Energy Agency.
    Solid biofuels represented the largest share of this, amounting to
    44.5% in the EU. These are any renewable, biological material used as
    fuel such as wood, sawdust, leaves, and even dried animal dung, but the
    majority of biofuels are derived from wood.

    Do I really need to spell out that chopping down trees and burning them to reduce atmospheric levels of CO2 might not be ideal, given how many decades it takes to grow trees? If that vast quantity of wood is naturally dried in Norway and other places and not kiln dried using gas, I have a bridge to sell you. I have cut limbs from my own trees and then cut it all up and dried it in an enclosed wood shed that has wind powered underfloor forced ventilation. How long does this process take to reduce the moisture content to that recommended by experts for fueling a stove? Two years. Anyone believe that is what happens, given the quantities?

    As of 2022, data shows that 46.4 million tons of wood pellets, 1.9 billion m3 of wood fuel, and 54.9 mil-lion tons of wood charcoal were produced worldwide.

    Wherever you look into bio-energy you find BS if you can get past the fact free eco-waffle (I need an 'enough to heat/power x homes' to GWh calculator)

    Multiple scams involving fake biofuels have erupted in northern Europe in recent years. A new investigation shows several cases were linked by a Bosnian company that sold thousands of tons of fraudulent fuel across the European Union.
    Key Findings
    • Fraudsters have exploited a key EU climate policy by passing off cheap traditional biofuels as expensive types made from waste.
    • In one alleged scam, Bosnian company Sistem Ecologica is accused of selling U.S. soy biodiesel mislabelled as next-generation fuel made of used cooking oil.
    • Bosnian investigators say Sistem Ecologica supplied 17 companies in nine EU member states over several years.
    • These included biofuels dealers who have been accused of running their own used cooking oil fraud scams in the Netherlands and the U.K.
    The lights were low in the historic Hulstkamp building in Rotterdam as guests sat down for dinner at a 2017 gathering of officials in the fats and oil industry. At one table sat three men who had built reputations — and fortunes — as traders in a new type of biofuel made from used cooking oil that was taking Europe by storm.
    Cornelis Bunschoten reportedly became one of the 500 richest people in the Netherlands after making a fortune as chief executive of major biofuels producer Biodiesel Kampen B.V. Near him sat Wilfred Hadders, a director of another Dutch biofuels company, Sunoil Biodiesel B.V., who at one point amassed 18 luxury cars, including a rare Porsche 911.

    The conversion efficiency of solar energy to biofuels is 5% You want to believe in all the sustainable energy bio-BS, be my guest, I don't.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,630 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    According to Eirgrid dashboard, we are currently importing 24.41% of energy, and only 9.15% renewables.

    Is this going to be the norm during windless days? Mind you, generation is only 2,850 MW.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,659 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    22% renewables now. Likely solar coming online. More Solar would help with this. We tend to get low wind days during the Summer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,899 ✭✭✭Shoog


    When the government is paying the bill for a trial plant there is absolutely no risk to the contract winner and it's a cushy jobs for the boys project which will not loss money. It's a win win for the very fossil fuel companies backing such projects, a zero risk delaying strategy that the government pays for.

    Even the government understands it's doomed to fail but it allows them to be seen to be doing something at little actual cost.

    It's peanuts in the grand scheme of things.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The energy figures from France are very interesting. Looks like their hydro and nuclear have been proping up Europe again during a dunkelflaute. The widespread and ever increasing dependence on renewables in Europe is going to bite hard, one day.

    This is why I am so against the huge push for interconnectors. When there are conditions like these, you can not rely on your neighbours being kind enough to share:

    France were exporting 16.6 GWh of juice from midnight to 06:45. Then it tailed off. Europe really ought to turn the street lights off at 01:00. In Perth WA, when I was a kid, that's actually what happened every night, the 'city of lights', as John Glenn named it from space, had to specially turn them on just for his benefit. You could go stand out in the street at night and see the great swathe of the miky way and night sky, wheras these days, you have to travel 80+ km out of cities to get away from light pollution to see the same thing.

    Just look at this:

    Imagine how much CO2 emissions could be reduced in Europe by just turning the lights off!

    Also of interst is that it dispels the notion you can't readily adjust the output of nuclear reactors, when clearly they do - reducing it by a third between midnight and 11:30, roughly. Looks like they only throttle it as solar kicks in

    And just look at that little red gas line. They are currently producing 18g of CO2 per KWh while we, the renewbles dependent capital of Europe are producing 268g per Kwh.

    We are never going to make those CO2 targets, not a chance in hell.

    The idea of being reliant on interconnectors for energy security is so stupid. French nuclear can only prop up so much of their neghbours wind foolishness.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,899 ✭✭✭Shoog


    What that little piece actually shows is that the wind is still blowing offshore and Ireland has huge potential to earn revenue from the offshore wind potential it controls.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    There is wind in the north sea, but that's it, very little around Ireland. We are more than a year past the last OSW auction - have any of the winning bidders made planning submissions yet? Multiple OSW projects have been cancelled recently, so it's clearly dependent on cheap finance to be profitable. OSW is very expensive, about four times the cost of that which can't be mentioned.

    Floating OSW is essentialy a failed experiment. Given the disastrous maintainance and cost issues of the main three that have been built, It's incredible there seems no cop-on here and you regularly see people mention it as if it's a feasible opprtunity for Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,899 ✭✭✭Shoog


    So you want to address the planning issues holding up all aspects of wind roll out and grid upgrade - so do I.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes, our messed up planning system is so obviously to blame for OSW projects in the US and UK getting cancelled, it needs fixing.

    I mentioned the delay, not in reference to the POS which is the planning quagmire, but to suggest the bidders might be reconsidering making submissions at all due to the economic viability changing. If they start suggesting the agreed price needs to double - it already being double the last Uk price - I wouldn't be in the least surprised.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,899 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Once the post COVID inflation settles down as it is now everyone will have a better ability to price projects without driving themselves into bankruptcy. That equally true of your pet obsession.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Fossil fuel provided 23% of EU electricity in April. Despite demand rising.

    … Coal contributed just 8.6 per cent of the energy mix compared to 30 per cent in 2023. Gas provided 12.1 per cent of the EU’s electricity - a 22 per cent decline year-on-year.

    … "From 2016 to 2023, coal fell by over 300 terawatt hours and there was a similar rise in wind and solar over that period"



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Remove nuclear from the chart and it's clear that the exporters are substantially Hydro, Wind and solar.

    https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/la-production-delectricite-par-filiere#



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,706 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Even if that was true the current offshore deals will yield about as much for the state as Corrib Gas did



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,706 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Prolonged periods of low wind speeds are equally likely in late winter and early spring when energy demands are typically at their highest



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,538 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Assuming that the earth continues to rotate and the sun continues to shine, the wind will always be blowing strongly somewhere. But it is true that the latitudes with stonger winds vary throughout the year.

    This is why the EU is supprting wind in countries in North Africa. Wind patterns and electric demand in both regions are well balanced. They need energy in summer for cooling, but have little wind while we have surplus, we need it in winter for heating while they have surplus.

    But Europe itself covers almost 35 degrees of latitude... it's rare that there's no wind on or off shore across that span.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The always wind somewhere argument is beyond obtuse Sure in that wind map I posted there is good wind in the North Sea and little patches here and there, but it wouldn't be close to enough to power the whole of Europe, so it's irrelevant nonsense. As for it being rare, there was a 6 week absence of wind across the whole of Europe in the third quarter of 2021. No amount of interconnectors are going to be be able to fill in a hole that big.

    Some billionaires in Australia had this great plan to supply Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia with energy from absolutely massive solar farms in northern Australia - sun cable. That project, similar to our powering Europe from North Africa, has collapsed.

    Vast capacity interconnectors to politically stable and reliable North Africa are a fantasy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,859 ✭✭✭✭josip


    These Dunkelflaute analysts would appear to be more optimistic about interconnectors' ability to mitigate the impact of Dunkelflautes across multiple countries.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355173603_A_Brief_Climatology_of_Dunkelflaute_Events_over_and_Surrounding_the_North_and_Baltic_Sea_Areas

    Lastly, it was found that the correlation coefficients of Dunkelflaute events for neigh-boring countries were moderate (approximately 0.3–0.4). Simple analysis revealed that an interconnected power system where wind and PV generation are pooled can decrease the occurrence of Dunkelflaute events considerably.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,659 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    As for it being rare, there was a 6 week absence of wind across the whole of Europe in the third quarter of 2021.

    Ah, I see you are trotting out this lie again!

    There has never been a 6 week Dunkelflaute! The longest has been 11 days and that is a once in twenty year event:

    https://www.drax.com/press_release/experts-issue-weather-warning-for-britains-electricity-grid/

    The event at the start of March was the longest Dunkelflaute that Britain has experienced in the last decade with 11 straight days of low wind output.

    I honestly don't know why you keep repeating this nonsense!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,790 ✭✭✭Apogee


    As you've raised the operation of the interconnector before, you might be interested in this briefing from SONI - they mention around 21 min mark how the scale of operations in GB means it's often cheaper to import into NI, even if it leads to dumping in NI.

    Also news that North-South interconnector due to start construction early next year with completion by late 2027.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Tell you what, how about you contact Dr Meadhbh Connolly and accuse her of lying, and then report back her response, if any. I am literally just repeating what she said and trusting that someone of her standing is likely telling the truth

    Dr. Meadhbh Connolly, Future Opportunities Manager, ESB Generation & Trading … holds a BE and a PhD in Engineering from University College Dublin.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40 tsiklon


    na



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,659 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    No, I'm not accusing the good Doctor, I'm accusing you of misinterpreting and misunderstanding the good Doctors presentation.

    You clearly don't understand the difference between a "low wind" period and a Dunkelflaute, because they aren't the same thing!

    A Dunkelflaute is defined as a period of both low wind AND low solar. The Doctor talked about a 6 week period of low wind near the end of August, start of September, but obviously there would be plenty of solar available during that period, so per definition not a Dunkelflaute. The longest Dunkelflaute we have had, a period of both low wind and low solar has been 11 days.

    Seriously listen carefully to her wording above, it is very precise. Here is the transcript:

    What is the 10 day storage solution?

    What is the backup for the Renewables for the so called Dunkelflaute events when there is no wind or solar?

    And what about Quarter 3 in 2021 when there is a period of up to 6 weeks of no wind in Ireland and no wind in GB and no wind in NW Europe?

    Please for the love of god, very carefully read the above and understand what she is saying, because you clearly don't.

    Note she makes two separate statements with a "and what" between them, clearly indicating they are different statements.

    She first says "What is the backup for the Renewables for the so called Dunkelflaute events when there is no wind or solar?" correctly defining a Dunkelflaute as a period of both no wind and no solar.

    She then goes on to make a separate statement about a period of 6 weeks in Q3, when there was low wind. But that isn't a Dunkelflaute because at that time of the year solar is available.

    Note that she first makes a statement about 10 day storage solutions, because that lines up with the longest Dunkelflaute we have had, at 11 days.

    Again, "low wind period" is not the same thing as a Dunkelflaute.

    Birdnuts the above is why your statement is wrong for the same above reason. Our low wind periods mostly happen in the Summer months, not the winter months. But low wind periods in the summer months are less troublesome as we can use solar instead and thus per definition not Dunkelflaute's. Now yes Dunkelflaute's are more likely to happen in winter, because per definition you also need a period of low solar. However low wind periods are FAR less common in winter.

    Again "low wind periods" and Dunkelflaute's aren't the same thing.

    Which all comes back to my reply to Sam who noted we were only generating 9% renewables, but that was at 8am in the morning, 2 hours later that day the sun was splitting the stones, wind was still low, but renewables were then up to 24% as a lot of solar had kicked in.

    Basically on windless summer days, which make up the majority of our windless days, solar can greatly help fill the gap.

    Again "low wind periods" and Dunkelflaute's aren't the same thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Some billionaires in Australia had this great plan to supply Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia with energy from absolutely massive solar farms in northern Australia - sun cable. That project, similar to our powering Europe from North Africa, has collapsed.

    Still going ahead.

    https://www.eco-business.com/news/sun-cable-appoints-new-leadership-to-drive-worlds-largest-solar-export-project/




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,659 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    It is really interesting to look at Germany's electricity generation mix right now and and over the past few days.

    The past few days have been a relatively "low wind period" over the past few days, yet there renewables are producing 85% of their electricity at the moment!!

    How? Well solar, it is currently producing well over 50% of their electricity at the moment and has been during the day time the last few days. Quiet remarkable:

    Note how the wind tends to pick up overnight and drop during the day time. So the wind and solar are doing a pretty good job supporting one another.

    Germany has far more installed solar then us, if we had more, we could handle "low wind" periods in the sunnier months much better. And before someone says it, Germany only gets about 10% more sunny days per year then us.

    Of course, that doesn't necessarily help much with winter Dunkelflaute's, but that is a separate issue. More solar can go a long way to reducing our yearly fossil fuel usage on the grid. And the great news, the price of Solar panels continues to drop at astonishing rates, making it a quiet attractive option.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,132 ✭✭✭gjim


    I'll believe it when I see it.

    The finances for such projects only work in an environment where undersea cables are relatively cheap relative to solar panels. There have been a bunch of similar project bouncing around Europe also - going back 10 or 15 years - involving cables across the Med to north Africa with massive solar farm in the Sahara. All have been "imminent" at some point or another.

    There is also the highly publicised Xlinks project to link the UK to Morocco which despite having a board loaded with heavy industry hitters, having a few million seed capital, and encouragement from the UK government, have gotten nowhere in the 5 or 10 years.

    The problem is that solar panels are falling in price at a rate of about 90% every 10 years - with nearly a 40% drop last year alone, but undersea HVDC cables are much more expensive than they were 10 years ago due to inflation.

    This completely undermines the case for such projects. Yes, a solar panel in north Africa (or Australia) produces about twice as much electricity as one in Germany. But that's no use if running HDVC links between Germany and the Sahara costs 10 or 20 times as much as the panels themselves. You can afford to just put double the amount of panels in Germany and achieve the same electricity production. Never mind that you can deploy everything in a year instead of likely a decade to run say a 1GW link between Germany, through Italy, under the Med, etc. And you have energy security… undersea cables are easy to attack and north Africa governments can change easily from friend to foe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    FFS. There is no solar at night, which together with no wind amounts to literally dunkelflaute conditions for more than half of every single day.

    And that July-Sept. period WAS anomalously cloudy in Germany so the assertion there is still plenty of solar and that this is a reliable feature that counters light winds is bunkum. If you count only daylight hours in Germany, only 40% of them have direct sunlight. Solar drops 80% in output under cloud, rendering it irrelevant.

    Solar is indescribably useless in Europe and in particular in Ireland with a paltry capacity factor of 11%, and you only get cheap via slave labour. It only exists due to heavy subsidisation beacuse it is not economical.

    There is not "plenty of solar", it's irrelevant to any grid's ability to counter a massive drop in energy from wind. Germany gets only about 11% of it's energy from solar during a year, and the bulk of that would be in summer.

    Utility scale solar costs €1.52 billion per GW to build here. That is hugely expensive for such a paltry output. Who in their right mind pays €13.8 billion per GW of actual capacity factor adjusted capacity? (1.52/.11)



  • Registered Users Posts: 868 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    France energy exports good. Interconnectors bad. Dunkelflaute. Solar 11% capacity factor.

    Can we just copy and paste in the last two years from the "other" thread please....



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The bit where they plan to make their own cable is interesting. Hang on, code yellow alert just triggered on my BS detector, I wonder what caused it, better check…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/21/environment-minister-rules-huge-renewable-energy-hub-in-wa-clearly-unacceptable

    Another huge multi square km Solar project proposed for WA was also rejected on enviro grounds some years ago.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,706 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Your wind analysis is nonsense - in summer it actually tends to pick up during the day due to convection/solar heating and drop at night. Just look at the Eirgrid figures for the past week



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