Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I'd say the economist that replaced him is more likely to meet his demise than Shoigu. He'll be blamed for failure of the war due to his cutbacks and they'll off him. Shoigu will be feathering Putins nest from elsewhere.

Ay Russian's have a great "farm" surely. It's just they need contractors to actually farm it.

Without western help, infrastructure and technology in refineries and gas extraction, piping and advanced mining techniques they'll have to turn even more to China.

The Chinese won't be making that a remotely fair deal for Russia though. They'll fillet the Russian economy and leave the Russian's with a few crumbs.

It'll make western petrol chemical arrangements/development look like charity by comparison.

Kite flying I wonder or are European nations sensing great danger and things need to change

I think that the up to date figure is 4,500,000 +++++ per year !!!!!!!

Not necessarily. I would speculate Ukraine's military collapsing (in part) and larger Russian gains being made after all that has happened since 2022 may now be unacceptable to a number of them in NATO bordering Russia (regardless what Biden + US thinks and what the US are willing to accept as an outcome, vs the risks of intervening more strongly/getting deeper involved).

When push comes to shove, if Ukraine doesn't have enough soldiers, they may start sending people to help behind the lines (hence these kinds of comments and kite flying).

This has been known for some time the Ukrainians are out of men, they have been taking very high losses in the past 24 hours. That's why quite a quite a few retired generals from NATO countries came out in recent months and said their armies are not ready. Behind the scenes all sides realise a sudden collapse of Ukrainian lines is likely. The Russians have geared up for a protracted war, there is no alternative to victory for the Putin regime, they are all in, the inheritors of the KGB security state are now firmly in charge in Russia (Stalin reign v2.0). They will push and secure the Donbass region before the American elections in November.

NATO governments must either commit or reach an accommodation with the Russians, as some Americans are fond of saying, go big or go home. With all the elections in play , their hands are somewhat tied, substantial parts of Ukrainian lines may not hold that long.


The Kharkov offensive and the replacement of Shoigu as Defense Minister

A make-over is all the more timely now that the Defense budget has ballooned out to over $118 billion, representing more than a third of the total state budget.  What is needed at the top is an effective business manager and all indications are that this is precisely what Belousov will be. 
<snip>

Whether the Russians will actually take Kharkov is unclear, though might be said to be unlikely. Instead, the Russians may very well now stage a big offensive to take Chasiv Yar, the contested city west of Avdeevka that is the gateway to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. That would assure the conquest of the entire Donetsk region.   No amount of of artillery shells or HIMARS or ATACMS now  being delivered by the US will change the situation: the Ukrainians are short of men. Period. source

Scutter. The russians are the ones who are dying in droves.

the whole septic diseased empire will eventually collapse from the inside again like it always has in cycles but this time the Chinese are waiting to carve up what they want.

Every time the russians are getting slaughtered the vatniks come out with the projectile Kremlin scutter and lies it's pathetic.

None of us know the true rate of casualties, most of us want to believe that Russia is suffering huge losses and maybe they are but I would be a lot more worried about Ukraine now that Putin is slowing getting the upper hand it seems .I really hope that is not the case but I feel the odds of Putin being pushed back and out are longer than I thought a year ago .It's going to take a massive fight back from Ukraine to stop him at this stage.

Well I presume you won't address it as the matters raised are one and the same thing. Ukraine has a manpower problem. It's up to them to sort this out with the assistance of EU and other states where said Ukrainian manpower may be residing. They are starting to make noises about this and I'd expect this to develop further,

At this stage all families in both Russia and Ukraine know of someone from their relatives or area who has been killed or injured in the war. The war has become costly in personal terms for all people involved. Russia has organized it's economy around supplying the war machine, wars exhaust the nations treasury quickly, they cannot do this forever. Without men the Ukrainians have no way to dislodge the Russians who are intent on seizing the Donbass region and at this stage look like they will succeed by end of the year. Once they have that territory they will be in a position to dictate the terms of any future treaty in their favour.

"War is the continuation of politics by other means". European governments now make the next move, it may be reactionary to steady the collapse of lines, it may be piecemeal to prolong the war until the new political configuration takes place, or it may be conciliatory where there is no political capital to be gained. I suspect that NATO armies will see active combat and it will be end of 2027 before we see a resolution. I don't know what the outcome of this war will be in terms of territory lost or gained, when it will end, and neither do you. Active combat will eventually end, the parties will sign a treaty.

Be serious. Denying that this is a proxy war between NATO and Russia makes you look ridiculous.