2024 Flat turf season.

Another trainer in decent form

https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/author/richard-hannon

one for later……………Serene Seraph is another very, very good filly and she could be Classic material, too. We didn’t over race her last season and I’m hopeful she could end up top notch.

3.45 PHOENIX BEACH 2pts e/w 16/1 powers/ladbrokes 4 places

We’re back at five furlongs on Sunday and I just have it in my mind he’s a horse who doesn’t want it too soft. I hope it dries out a bit for him but for the money I’m happy to take a chance and he is only a pound higher than when winning at Newcastle in November.

OISIN ORR doing 8-11 on this one today, may have to miss breakfast as the lightest he has ridden last 12 months 8-10

TRAINER / JOCKEY combo at the track over the last five years 14 runners 3 winners 7 places

Windsor 6.35 LADY DREAMER 2pts e/w 12/1 4 places skybet.


Windsor form 312

LADY DREAMER steps up a grade here from her last turf race however she was a close 3rd in a class 4 here last July. the jockey Trevor Whelan is riding at his minimum weight he has ridden in the last 12 months.

Over the last 5 years trainer Tom Ward has send 67 horses to Windsor 11 won and 31 placed it actually gets better when you switch to handicaps only 47 runners 9 winners and 24 placed.

I don't think this will be 12/1 at off time tomorrow.

Lads Re: LADY DREAMER interesting observations regarding the trainer's handicap runners.
29 of his 31 handicap winners since 2009 were priced at SP 17/2 or lower (Win SR 21%) whereas just 2 from 126 won priced at SP 9/1 or greater (win SR 1.58%).
Five jockeys riding his handicap runners (Hollie Doyle, James Doyle, Kingscote, Levey & Marquand) account for 24 of these winners and rode all his handicap winners at Windsor. A saver on H Doyle's runner RHYTHM N HOOVES (a previous CL 2 winner off OR 87 under H Doyle) might be worthwhile?

here's our oaks bet

EPSOM OAKS
Friday 31st May

EZELIYA 3PTS E/W 14/1 POWERS/HILLS/BETFAIR 3 PLACES

THIS FILLY HAS SUCH RIDICULOUS LOW DOSAGE IN HER FAMILY I JUST HAD TO INCLUDE HER FOR THIS RACE.

Ezeliya (0.67)
Dam- Eziyra (0.43)
Grand Dam- Eytarna (0.52)
Great grand dam- Ebaziya (0.25)

that's one of the lowest dosage lineage I have come across since I started doing the dosage for the DERBY/OAKS 23 years ago. I know some people will say does not mean a lot Myles, Elvis had a brother who couldn't sing a note however there are two things I find you need for the 1m4f race at Epsom,
STAMINA AND BALANCE, below is the Racingpost analysis from her last race

A solidly run race and likely to be an influential one as the season goes on.

EZELIYA had not been seen since winning a Cork maiden the previous September and this reflected the progress made. The drying ground suited her, she benefitted from a patient ride and she stayed on really strongly up the hill. The extra couple of furlongs of the Oaks trip is likely to suit her well, and she looks a well balanced filly that could handle Epsom well should they go there.

'At 40-1, she is probably the only filly in the Oaks whose price could crash'

By Maddy Playle, reporter

It's an interesting market because the more talented fillies appear to be heading elsewhere. Opera Singer is slated to make her seasonal reappearance in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, Tamfana is on track for the Prix de Diane and the trials – including the Musidora – haven't thrown up anything spectacular so far.

Perhaps Saturday's Fillies' Trial Stakes will have the answer. The impressive Newmarket winner Sea Just In Time would need to be supplemented for Epsom, so most interesting at this stage is Ejaabiyah.

The winner of her only start at Kempton over a mile in November, she has plenty of speed being out of the Golden Slipper winner Estijaab but is by last season's Oaks-winning sire in Frankel, and connections clearly think she will thrive over middle distances.

Roger Varian has already scooped one of this year's Classics with a lightly raced improver and Ejaabiyah could be another. At 40-1, she is probably the only filly in the Oaks whose price could crash.

Ejaabiyah16:30 EpsomView RacecardJky:Tnr: Roger Varian

Fifteen left in Betfred Oaks as Ralph Beckett and Aidan O'Brien account for nine of the remaining entries

Ralph Beckett has left four of his six entries in the Betfred Oaks (4.30) to stand their ground at the six-day confirmation stage for Friday's Classic, while Aidan O'Brien left in all but Content.

Beckett scratched Classical Song and Meribella, but could still field as many as four, with Cheshire Oaks winner and third Forest Fairy and Seaward potentially joined by Lingfield Trial winner You Got To Me and Treasure, who finished a close-up fourth for the King and Queen.

The prospect of a second Classic runner for their majesties just nine months after Desert Hero was third in the St Leger may depend on whether Epsom sees some rain during the week.

"We're watching the forecast a bit as she's a filly that would probably appreciate a bit of cut in the ground, but all the options are still open," said racing manager John Warren.

O'Brien confirmed favourite Ylang Ylang as well as Opera Singer, Buttons and Everlasting, who are all due to line up in Sunday's Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Ballydoyle could also field Rubies Are Red, who is no bigger than 4-1 after finishing fast to be second to You Got To Me at Lingfield.

The shortest-priced among the ten fillies to come out at Saturday's confirmation stage was the David Menuisier-trained Tamfana, who remains on course for the Prix de Diane, although he could still run War Chimes in the Oaks.

Oaks confirmations

Buttons Aidan O'Brien runs today
Caught U Looking Noel Meade
Dance Sequence Charlie Appleby
Everlasting Aidan O'Brien runs today
Ezeliya Dermot Weld
Forest Fairy Ralph Beckett
Making Dreams Karl Burke
Opera Singer Aidan O'Brien runs today
Rubies Are Red Aidan O'Brien
Seaward Ralph Beckett
Secret Satire Andrew Balding
Treasure Ralph Beckett
War Chimes David Menuisier
Ylang Ylang Aidan O'Brien
You Got To Me Ralph Beckett

Coral: 2 Ylang Ylang, 4 Ezeliya, Rubies Are Red, 7 Forest Fairy, 8 You Got To Me, 11 Secret Satire, 20 Treasure, 25 Buttons, Dance Sequence, 33 bar

The Derby
4.30 DERIA MILE 2pts e/w 22/1 hills 4 places

I have just looked at some of the previous races of some of the runners and I liked the way DEIRA MILE finished his race when easily winning at Windsor in a 1m2f race, ok he has loads to find however there are doubts about a lot of these horses staying so with Hills going 22/1 plus 4 places I will try DERIA.

From Jims blog

The first thing to say is the Derby is still top of the list of races I, and just about every flat jockey, wants to win. It’s a great race with a great history, and it’s hard enough to get on a horse in the race, ley alone one that has a chance of winning. This year I’m on Deira Mile, previously trained by Charlie Johnston, and now with Owen Burrrows, and he’s an exciting horse I’m really looking forward to riding.

His 2-y-o form was good, but he was always going to be a better 3-y-o, and whilst he was entitled to win on his reappearance at Windsor, and duly did, it was the feel he gave me when I rode him around Epsom at their Derby preview morning recently that really convinced me he has a live chance in what looks an open renewal. We’re drawn in 14, which is OK, certainly preferable to being very low, and he’s versatile in terms of going.

City Of Troy is the enigma in the race, he’s got to bounce back from a disappointing Guineas run, but we’ve seen Aidan O’Brien get horses back to form before, so he can’t be written off. Anicent Wisdom looks a strong contender, Ambiente Friendly won well at Lingfield, Dancing Gemini should appreciate the step up in trip, so there are several I can make a case for, but I believe my fellow is in the group of horses who can definitely win this.

For anyone interested in backing CITY OF TROY

Ran a race profile which found 10 of the past 11 winners for a 71 point BFSP gain.

Qualifiers were: CITY OF TROY (3/1) AMBIENT FRIENDLY (15/2) LOS ANGELES (13/2) DALLAS STAR (40/1) BELLUM JUSTICE (25/1) EUPHORIC (33/1) The last 3 are rated 106, 104, 103 and no winner since 2009 has won with such a low OR.

Which leaves: CITY OF TROY - AMBIENT FRIENDLY - LOS ANGELES

Interesting stat is that A P O Brien's male runners in Group races since 2012 that were Fav LTO carrying the same jockey as LTO that are also Fav in their next race have an impressive 79/164 record or 48.20% Strike rate. If priced 11/4 or lower that's marginally increased to 50%. That's making CITY OF TROY a value bet in itself even at 3/1. You're getting 3/1 for what has historically been a statistical 1/1 chance. Also based on his OR he's nearly a stone in at level weights. 3/1 could end up being the bet of the year.......if he stays that is?

Also in my race profiling AOB had a race record of 6/20 (14 placed) with his qualifiers, but today he has the two in COT & LA.

I've not made my mind up yet but I'll be backing the three in some format and the primary decision is whether to go all in COT with a saver the other two or perhaps favour the better priced O Brien runner with a saver on COT?

I also looked at AOB's historic record with male Group runners that had won their past 3 races with the same jockey riding as LTO such as LA and again a near 50% strike rate but what was interesting was that such runners with R Moore riding was a 42.40% SR (14/33) but those ridden by other jockey's actually had a better strike rate (9/14 64% win) and 12 placed, so the fact that Ryan Moore is on COT and not LA and would seemingly have had a choice who to ride may not be as important as has been suggested?

big thanks to Roger

5.30 Feyha 2pts e/w 14/1 most books last nights price now 18s

1m4f dosage 0.33

Over the last 12 months the jockey has rode 4 times for the trainer winning 2. trainer seems to be in fine form 5 winners from last 15 runners, he is 7/51 13 places at the course over last five years.
The filly won a 1m4f race at EPSOM off 63 runs off 60 when you take the kids claim in, this long straight looks like it will suit her judging by her Epsom run.

Trainer's record with 4 YOs in CL 5 Hcaps reads 8/27 (16 placed) past 5 yrs and profitable.

His 4 YOs in Hcps at Salisbury (all classes) past 5 years is 2/5 (4 placed)

His 4 YOs in Cl 5 Hcps when wearing a hood since 2009 reads 5/8 (7 placed)