Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Large council estates did not work in the past no matter how rose tinted your view of them are. Why do you think areas are synonymous with bad reputations?

We as a society just don't do social housing well. Before you quote other countries in Europe with a mixture of different groupings of people in them are shown to work they have a different culture to the Irish.

Most School building up until the 80's was funded by a mixture of local and state funding. Sites were often provided from church owned land and was nearly always partially funded by local communities, which was arranged through local churches.

Presently 90% of children attend school until there Leaving certificate and about 80%++ of them go onto 3rd level In the 70's about 50-60% did the intercert and 25-40 at most did the Leaving certificate. And of those that did the LC less than 50%( loss than 20% of the overall student population) went on to 3rd level from 2nd level.

As late as the 90's when there was an extension needed to the local national school, the local community raised 10% of the cost of the building and the extra area needed for the extension was provi6from adjacent church land.

Between 1970 and 1995 the Irish education budget went from 107million to 2.5 billion a 250 fold increase in 25 years

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Irish-Government-expenditure-on-education-1970-1995-in-Source-CSO-2012_fig2_263703750#:~:text=actual%20expenditure%20continued%20to%20increased,and%20the%201990s%20(10.4%25).

It was just under 10 billion last year or a four fold increase in 30 years since 1995. Surpluses get swallowed by different spending choices.

This is a historical government spending government record since more or less the Inception of the state. If you go to Figure 3 it shows Gross National Investment since 1924. The boom in housing investment was during the 70/80's. But look at Education, Health, Justice etc

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/History-of-Public-Spending-in-Ireland.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjItvrO4pCGAxVRUEEAHdAIA8QQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0atR3wLaWec4t2xSGBaquM

An example of the effect of incentives/waivers on building by private developers is being reported on in many of this mornings papers with a huge spike in commencements last month . Unfortunately my copy/paste isn’t working so I can’t link articles but if you go to independent.ie, there is one.

So how did they get their reputations? Conspiracy?

with 2/3 young adults living at home as they cant afford rents or to buy a home we now have what seems to be the first warnings of a potential bubble as house prices rise over 10 consecutive months as interest rates start to fall

Experts warn of potential property bubble as prices double in a decade

First-time buyers now need average deposit of €52,500, bank figures show

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/experts-warn-of-potential-property-bubble-as-prices-double-in-a-decade/a721311346.html

or €22,500 claiming HTB which is why most FTBs are going for new houses

Taking the lower figure, that would mean close to 1.5 million houses in the next 25 years. That's not even considering the infrastructure that would be required. Also, what would be the environmental impact of building on that level?

Suggestions like this really do demonstrate just what chasing the infinite growth genie has brought us. Already, there are enormous social issues from such policy, and they will get worse as time goes on.

I'll be forgiven for being a tad histrionic, but genuinely feel sorry for the children of today who will have to grow up in this investment fund with a flag. Maybe it's time policy started considering the long-term best interests of future generations of Irish people and not just the short term needs of a selection of people who are here today. But who cares eh….

Evict people for non payment of social housing rent for starters - the state have kind of given up and don't bother because they'll have to be housed regardless and it's just shuffling deckchairs, what they fail to realise is that actually evicting for non payment is the deterrent necessary to get people to pay.

Extreme anti social behaviour from social tenants should also carry a threat of eviction. You need an effective deterrent for these things - in the past there very much was.

Do you honestly see any politican agreeing to this?

A few years ago, no.

In 1-2 years time though the mood will have shifted further, we are currently in the middle of a lurch to to the right on some issues. If the issue of non payment came up in the news today, you would be surprised of the support for evictions for those who refuse to pay.

I agree, but a hardening of attitudes has been and still is happening in this country. People have less and less sympathy for those seen as not paying their way these days, so eventually those kind of examples will not really provoke much outrage other than from a select few.

Leaving the problem tenants homeless is unfortunately not politically (or morally, when they have children) viable, but a fairly workable real world solution would be to evict the problem tenants from more desireable social housing locations (say any in RPZs) and only offer them alternative accomodation elsewhere.

An offshore compound is rather a stretch, but even just to places outside of the major cities would be a very helpful incentive while not being heartless.

But that would require the availability of empty social housing to move them to - which comes back to the original problem of not enough new social housing being built.

A link to HAP cost over a billion please

On the significant increase I provided a link that showed between 1970 and 1995 that state education funding increased by 2500% and between 1995 to2023 it increased by another 400%. The increase of 2500% was as the state started to take over from religious orders.

The gugures I gave for the education structure 50 years ago us very accurate and is part of the reason education costs have increased to the state.

And this person who bought for 400k in October last year. Just relisted with a 799k asking price.

Completely refurb’d it in fairness and it looks well but 400k upgrade?

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/top-developers-fear-sinn-feins-radical-plan-will-stall-housing/

Fear mongering in the BP today about SF and housing policy but the fear mongering is being done from one of the unaccountable corporates making hay from the housing crisis so I think that indicates, at face value, there is something of substance in the SF policies.

What is quite comical in the argument put forward by the corporate representative the article is that the current housing output situation would be jeopardised with SF’s plans. Turkeys not in favour of Christmas shock horror!