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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,816 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    Doherty shouting and roaring every time he stands up might have been seen as new and refreshing back around 2012 when the Serbians were uploading the videos to Facebook groups.
    Now he’s a grey and middle-aged man whose fake outrage is so tired and cliched. It’s off putting for most of the electorate. He doesn’t appear to have another gear though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Migration is a defining issue in the mid 21st century and the shame is that parties like SF preferred sound bites rather than a long term plan for it. They are now reversing, but I still don't see any clear indication about what they think is a sustainable level of immigration in a country with a housing shortage.

    https://anphoblacht.com/contents/28018/

    Post edited by Charles Babbage on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,524 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    SF now have a problem at the top of the ticket. MLM is unconvincing, PD seems incapable of discussing anything without getting over excited and when pressed, is often unable to back up his policies/claims with factual data, and O’B’s galactic incompetence in making a mess of what should be like shooting fish in a barrel, attacking the Governments record on housing and offering alternatives/hope, means they look like amateurs. Their failure to grasp concerns over emigration and offer policies which might ease concerns, will make an electorate already sceptical about their economic policies, now less likely to vote for them.

    As had happened in past elections, when it comes time to get down to the serious business of convincing voters that they can do the job and make a difference, SF are being found wanting, voters don’t trust them to govern.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    It really is remarkable how much of a dope Michelle ONeill is. And how much the media want to buy in to her 'girl done good' story.

    This week was a good reminder. She clearly has been propelled into the "leadership" role by senior command to soften the image of SF, and things like the LLS interview are testament to that. But once she had to face actual questions her lack of capacity was hopelessly exposed.

    Lipstick on a pig comes to mind.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,389 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Oh he does, more outrage. Go back a few years ago and I would have said he was a good politcian, he is tiresome now after years of the same act

    Plus when he does do anything, like the insurance bill he proposed, it was a useless

    THen you look at the "tax the rich" which was 140k and then suddenly 100k, incompetent

    Then he releases an "alternative budget" which had to be pulled soon after because of all the errors and still has errors in it now. F**k me how could anyone thrust that guy with anything apart from doing another outrage video



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    I would think the best thing he could do is resign (along with the other S.F. leaders from around the country who attended the massive funeral in Belfast in June 2020, when 99% of the rest of us were making huge sacrifices and taking big precautions ). People in other countries have resigned over less. He could always go back to the college in Letterkenny and try to finish the course he dropped out of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    Martin Browne, Johnny Mythen, Matt Carthy,Pat Buckley, Reada Cronin,David Cullinane.

    Jaysis, no end to the 'talent' in SF.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Huge talent lol….not to mention Violet Anne Wynne….oh I forgot, she resigned from Sinn Féin a year or two ago, I think she alleged that she was the victim of a campaign of "psychological warfare" from members of S.F. 



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,716 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    That's what concerns me most about SF. It isn't so much about policy disagreements for me as it is about confidence in their individual ability to do the jobs they seek which is pretty basic. I wouldn't have confidence in most of them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    I bet your last sentence there "Lipstick on a pig comes to mind" will spring to my mind whenever I see here again on TV or whatever - I might not be able to get it out of my head I fear, or whenever I hear her complaining about the same old same old.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭TokTik


    They seem to be running a child in his confirmation suit in my locality. I’d say he’s just gone 18. Can’t be any older.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,524 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    it’s like when I was a kid and the manager of the senior Gaelic team would come over to the stand and ask me and my friends to go home and get our boots, he was a bit short of players.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭KaneToad


    This happens all the time. Parties fly high in the opinion polls but the picture changes closer to election day. Ireland isn't known for its seismic shifts. Next govt will be similar to last one.

    SF have gotten all the support they are going to get. When they try to appeal to other groups they alienate some of their previous supporters. They are the single most popular party in the country which is no mean feat. But their policies are not the most popular in the country hence they won't see govt in 2025.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,389 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Seems like a lot in most area's, they also have a elderly lady in our area that nobody has seen or met in their lives from who I know. Bit odd when I am involved in a lot of the sports clubs etc in area and know all the coucillors because they are always knocking around, offering to do fund raiser/help with grants

    Maybe they travel in different circles to me which doesn't involve the sports clubs



  • Registered Users Posts: 51 ✭✭Ionraice


    They do give that impression, don't they?

    And yet, they were very sure footed about gaining support until now.

    Which begs the question:

    Is it possible that, given the number of candidates they are running in the local elections, that they are choosing to avoid having to deal with the mess the current Government have made of immigration, while simultaneously getting the incumbents into position for the next general election after this one?

    Meanwhile, they could use the next couple of years to airbrush over the fact that, until recently, they were at least as enthusiastic about migration as the current Government, if not more so...

    If you think about it realistically, SF probably don't have enough sitting county councillors to be able to form a government .

    Even if they did, and said councillors became TDs, where are the replacements for those councillors?

    I'm not convinced that they don't want to be in Government.

    I strongly suspect that they are laying the foundations for an attempt at a non coalition Government in the future.

    I freely admit, I could be entirely wrong.

    But, it makes no sense to go to the expense of running multiple candidates in the local election, unless there is a long term plan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,909 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Sinn Fein got 9.48% in the last local elections, so I am fairly certain that the propagandists for Sinn Fein will be able to paint this year's result as some kind of victory as they are pretty much nailed on to do better than that.

    However, the real questions will be can they match the 35% they were getting in opinion polls, and if not, can they at least match their general election performance of 24.5%.

    We will probably have to cut through the noise of nonsense to get to the real analysis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,000 ✭✭✭skallywag


    Disagree strongly.

    It is well known that voters will very often behave very differently on voting day, compared to how they have indicated their preference to a pollster, albeit anonymously.



  • Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭Oxo Moran


    There was always a claim SF's base wouldn't like this and that, yet their popularity grew. I think it's wishful thinking that their base is made up of racist knuckle draggers who hate the Brits, and the blacks and so on. Their base is a mere 4 or 5% of their support if we go by traditional numbers.

    SF were against Direct Provision and sought more rights for immigrants several years ago. Then, people claimed their base wouldn't like it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭Grey123


    It's not unheard of for newly elected councillors to run for the Dail. I think a few current Green Party TDs were only elected councillors a year before, they will get someone in for the council seat alright.

    It actually works out well for the candidate as they get tow rounds of posters / name recognition within a year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,466 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Sinn Fein want to be in government, everything single thing they have done since the 1994 ceasefire has in part been about being in government North and South.

    There are no circumstances in which they would choose not to be in government after the next GE. Until the recent decline in polls a SF/FF government perhaps with the Soc Dems or Labour was the most likely next government. SF use rhetoric about a 'left' government to keep a 'left' hue to them but they know that's not a runner...even on a really good day it's unlikely SF/Soc Dems/PBPA will have the numbers even if you threw in Labour though I doubt PBPA would agree to LP participation. I still think FF/SF is the most likely government but it's not as certain as it was recently.

    The idea that they would be seeking to skip government at the next GE over migration is laughable, partly because the issue is hyped beyond it's real significance, secondly if we accept your premise that 'migration' is a mess, SF will just lay the blame at the previous government and if they got a few wins on housing delivery that would help too.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭Oxo Moran


    So how would a 'propgandist' measure success if not based on seats won? Polls seems to be a pretty loose and inaccurate way. Or is it so propagandists for other parties can claim Sinn Fein lost, if they gain more seats but don't match a poll from several months ago?

    Sounds like the 'noise of nonsense'.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    I wouldnt call myself racist. I wouldnt call my friends racist. And we certainly wouldnt be right wing, not particularly left leaning either tbh. But all of can see clearly the effects that the population increase is having on the people of Ireland.

    Now I doubt that we are unique, and I think that anyone with eyes in their head knows exactly what is causing high rents and not high house prices. Yes its demand exceeding supply, and people all understand what causes that too.

    To say that our recent population increases (however they came about) are not adding fuel to the fire is just burying your head in the sand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,754 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    Coppinger is trying that one.

    Straight out of the establishment handbook she'd moan if it was anyone else.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,466 ✭✭✭MFPM


    So do you want all the tech companies to send all their non Irish national workers back to where they came from and then pull out because they can't sufficient labour?



  • Registered Users Posts: 138 ✭✭Soc_Alt


    Tech companies are already transitioning out of Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    Not what im talking about and i think you know it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,621 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Registered Users Posts: 27,909 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If Sinn Fein get 20% in the local elections, they will be claiming success, even though they would be down on the general election. That is what propagandists too.

    18 months ago, the SF propagandists were singing about 35% and going into government without FF and FG. Ain't gonna happen now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,466 ✭✭✭MFPM


    If I knew that I wouldn't ask. I'm wondering how you're addressing the high rents and high house prices you raised without recourse to one of the biggest pressures on rent in cities?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 138 ✭✭Soc_Alt


    Sure no problem

    Currently all Multinationals are pulling out of both high and mid cost countries.

    Ireland is a mid to high cost country.

    Why people thought WFH was a good thing and the pushback for returning to office has backfired and put the ball back into the employers court.

    If your current job in a multinational can be done remotely then it can be done also remotely from a low cost location.

    With the introduction of AI also the writing is on the wall for most folk in the US and EU locations.

    People seem blind to the fact that the Multinationals are not leasing new office space and also not renewing contracts in buildings.

    People in the US and EMEA will also notice the difficulty from the leadership above in getting headcount approved in these locations even if it's to replace someone who left.

    Of course you were also aware of these facts.......



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