The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Perhaps, there wasn't in 2019 either. As you say they've lost a relatively sizeable amount of support yet are still the party with most support. They're going to have a good local and European elections though admittedly recovering from a lowish base in 2019, their heralded demise in the the establishment media is a tad premature IMO. Time will tell..

You really, really won't

It's much less likely now since the referenda and the immigration issues than it was before that. It was never a certainty but now it looks like a return of FF+FG with some independents and/or other parties as smaller coalition members. I'm not a betting man but if I was, my last euro would go against rather than for SF being in the next government

If Sinn Fein aren't the biggest party after the election early next year then MLMcD has to go.

They were handed an open goal over the past 5 years and couldn't come up with a sensible strategy to make sure they won the election.

If they had just focussed on retaining the working class vote they had and come up with a half sensible housing plan they'd have won the election easily.

For some reason they thought excessive wokeness was the way to go over the past few years.As bad as what is happening in Palestine may be ,recent polls have shown its only an important issue for 2% of the Irish population yet it seems like SF think it's the pressing issue in Ireland today, they also seem to think a free for all immigration policy was what people wanted when it clearly isn't.It's incredible the level of incompetence from them as a party and people I think can see this and think if they're that poor in opposition then how the hell could we trust them with the responsibility of running the country.At least people know what you get with FF and FG leading the government and it's a case of better the devil you know.

FFG are outflanking them quite a lot. The latest is on Israel/Palestine. I think that's going to boost the government parties more.

Independent Ireland and the Green Party are diametrically opposed on nearly every issue.

Sinn Fein want to abolish the carbon tax, that puts them with the Independent Ireland party.

There is no way the Greens will go in with SF or the Independent Ireland.

Surely a FFG government is more likely than SFFF or SFFG?
Why do you think any would share with SF?

any party that does a deal with the shinners will never get a vote from a large number of their current voters again

working with shinners is a selling your soul IMO and unforgivable

FF/FG is a live possibility but I think the shinners will regain some of the ground they've lost.

Parties will share with SF because they want to be in power. It will depend on the results. We may end up with the three main parties on similar seat numbers but if one pulls away a bit then that party is likely to be able to call the shots and it's likely to be FG or SF it won't be FF.

I could be completely wrong but I still think SF will be the biggest party after the next election.

I think many of those smaller parties listed as options for a SF led Govn't, are looking at them at present and seeing little competence. Why would you tie your party to SF if you think they'll be poor in Govn't? That must be on FFs mind as well.

You might be right in your opinion. However many of the factors you're citing Mary Lou etc don't really stand up to scrutiny and are really reflective of your own political bias I suggest. For the record I'm neither a SF voter or supporter. There are some decent people in SF but the trajectory of the party is to the right and they are incredibly opportunist.

Their current trajectory in the polls has been downwards, that's undoubtedly true and as you say they've fallen a fair bit from their high of last year, yet they are still the party with the highest standing in the polls. FG has had a bit of a new leader bounce (f@*k knows why!) but no guarantee that will continue either. Why would you be so deterministic about the trend downward for SF - they will have a decent outing this time, they'll get a significant increase in the number of councillors and will go from 1 MEP to 3.

You do realise the Green Party are a small party in government and cannot get any major changes done without agreement from the other parties. You might be surprised if the Green party get kicked out the same taxes go forward and who will you blame then?

In terms of wind, Sinn Fein want to roll out more and faster, that money has to come from somewhere

Get real, any rocking of the greens boat and they have the power to bring the government down, this is Eamonn Ryan who has introduced carbon tax, halted at least ten major road projects for needless cycle ways and walkways in his own constituency,fell asleep in the Dail and last but not least suggested that we all invest in window boxes to get us through COVID!!!

So 'people' have suddenly started to read their policies and decided that SF are not for them, yet they are still the most popular party in the country.

Who's argued that no people are living a 'happy life' in Ireland? However, to reduce the thousands living in hotels due to the inability of the government to provide housing, the crisis in mental health services, the waiting lists in health, the shortage of school places for children on the ASD spectrum, the children in agony waiting on scoliosis surgery, the list goes on to simply 'issues' is a bit reductive. If Ireland is so wonderful why are so many people seeking alternatives to the government parties.

To date they have been relying on being the main opposition "give us a chance, we are alternative to FFG".

nobody has been reading manifestos as such, but the the recent storm of immigration saw them caught out on the wrong side of the government, and they have failed to manoeuvre. They have a poor idea of who their base is and what they actually want, and run the risk of losing further voters if this continues. The longer immigration is an issue and if the IPAS situation worsens, SF will be the big losers unless they can change their position on it in a big way.