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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024
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Standout MUCAPE maturing in the NE tomorrow , surface temperatures getting up to 17 or 18C and Dp's into the low teens, pronounced converging winds in the afternoon in the NE with decent lower level shear and a fair amount of Deep layer shear could set off very heavy localised rainfall and some thunderstorms. Will be interesting to see if we get reports of funnels or tornadic activity in the NE or waterspouts along the coast there.
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Area of LP with and upper low with associated cold pool aloft moving in over Ireland on Friday . Evaporation after the front moves through from Thurs/ early Fri with spells of sunshine . Light variable winds with areas of convergence and decent vorticity from the rotating area of LP all aiding the instability which could lead to some heavy localised showers and slow moving thunderstorms, some hail possible also. Deep layer shear not looking overly strong at this stage but initial charts showing decent lapse rates.
Thunderstorms isolated in nature perhaps and more pulse type could occur about anywhere and maturing and peaking from the available warmth through the afternoon I reckon.
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The blue shaded area in the Lapse rate chart for tomorrow Friday( underneath the coldest upper air combined with vorticity ) showing areas with the most probability of some thunderstorms and more so the closer you get to the coastal areas along the S, SE and E being aided by converging winds and peak diurnal temperatures in the afternoon.
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Some chance of heavy local showers and isolated thunderstorms again tomorrow with a few hail showers possible. Again maybe pulse type in nature, parameters just the better side of marginal. Again possibly peaking in the afternoon, maybe getting the most activity in the midlands N midlands and SE. Decent amount of shear in the Southern half of the country, will see if it contributes some bit in the midlands ,surface temperatures only fair though, will need decent sunny breaks to form thunderstorms.
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Tremendous downpour near Ardagh, Longford. Surprised there was no lightning, what with the intensity of the rain. Had been lovely warm sunshine just prior and the torrential rain began so quickly that I'm stick in one of the sheds for the past ten minutes.
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