General British politics discussion thread

Dream on, Peter. Even in a hopeless situation, there is comfort in clinging to illusions.

But, in reality, Starmer's dullness is not bad campaigning; it's very good campaigning. This is an election where he wants all the attention to be focussed on the Tories because, the more you look at the Tories, the worse they appear. They've been an absolutely appalling government and, the more people talk about them, the better for Labour. Why would Starmer want to get in the way of that? So both the personal dullness and the policy vacuum — whether they are genuine or feigned — are strategically advantageous for Labour.

The Tories know this, but there's nothing they can do about about it. Their current "Sleepy Keir" line is pathetic — all it does is make them look like a feeble Trump tribute act, and Trump is widely despised in the UK.

There is no chance whatsoever that this election will end up with a hung Parliament. The Tories are in for a historic drubbing and they know it. Their strategy in this election is not to win it; it's to survive it. And the existential threat against which they have to defend themselves doesn't come from Labour or anyone else on the left; it comes from Reform. Their campaign is mainly aimed at shoring up support on the right, even at the cost of alienating right-of-centre voters; they'd rather lose ten seats to the Lib Dems than one to Reform, because the Lib Dems have no chance of replacing them as the dominant party on the right of British politics, while Reform conceivably could — or, at least, Reform could do untold amounts of damage trying to.

Another point is that do not underestimate an electorate which voted for brexit and three years later gave Boris Johnson 365 seats. Starmer/Labour look to be heading for a comprehensive victory but that could all change suddenly as it did for Theresa May in 2017. Starmer needs a bigger swing to Labour than the 1997 swing to Blair and there's no way that Starmer is in the same league as Blair as a politician or communicator. The dull campaign will only work for so long. It would be a far closer campaign without Reform and should Starmer become PM, and he should, he'll have more to thank Farage for than the likes of 14 years of tory misgovernance and incompetence.

Question- based on who is running for the Tories and who has dropped out, will the "ERG" be gone or seriously hollowed out?

The latest opinion polls show Reform on 12%. These are former tory voters in the Labour red wall heartlands which Starmer MUST win back otherwise he doesn't win the election. If you think 12% is insignificant then you don't really know what you're talking about.

I agree the tories are ghastly and I am personally hoping they get a hiding but don't underestimate the stupidity of the UK electorate.

It's not nothing. Reform could get 12% or higher and end up with no MPs but that's irrelevant. What is relevant is how many Labour MPs get elected on the back of former tory voters voting for Reform.

There were elections in the UK recently (earlier this month) and the BBC have projected that Labour are on 34% and the tories on 25%.

I never once praised the tories.

I wouldn't worry yourself. They'll be in the wilderness for the next decade

Does the party "hitting the ground running" have candidates yet?

The vast majority of British people are in favour of broadly left wing policies, but still Labour have to move to the centre ground to win power. The Tories will have to do the same eventually. They can move further to the right (they're already far over that way as far as I'm concerned) but they'll continue to occupy an area that will make it harder to gain power and it'll see them adrift for years if they do.

I've mentioned it before though, I genuinely think that the Conservatives are merely hoping that Starmer's Labour has no clothes, so to speak, and that they'll be found out in the next few years, leaving the way open for the Conservatives to get back in.

But Labour are going to be in power after the next GE, barring an absolute miracle). However they'll need to have more arrows in their quiver than the single one they've displayed so far. Because that won't get them far in government, and the Tories and their client press will rip them to shreds.

I'm sure they'll appoint their candidates before the deadline. Generally it's the leader that matters, not the candidates. No one has ever won a general election because the candidate for Tunbridge Wells was a rising star.

The centre-left always had large sections of the party that would hold standards and ideology above electability. The right was more pragmatic and fluid until recently when it started to court various groups of cranks and loons who are irrationally immovably anti on certain issues.

They will steal those votes predominantly from the Tories which will boost labour. Reform are a godsend to Labour.

Britons may well classed as "conservative" when compared to other nations, but they still favour broadly left wing ideals such as the NHS, welfare state, public housing etc. They are quite socially liberal in the main. The government that brought in those types of reforms was the Atlee government and that's regularly considered the most successful governance that Britain has ever had.

While it's true that there have been more Conservative PM's than Labour ones in the last 50 years, they almost always leave office in absolute disgrace. And the best of them was John Major who brought the party back well into the centre ground after Thatcher was ousted by her own people.

It's a sad state of affairs when John Major is the poster boy for a good conservative Prime Minister. Every other Con PM has been a disaster. Dave had to slink off because he made such an incredible screw up with Brexit, Teresa was left holding that baby but wasn't right wing enough for Tufton Street and was gotten rid of, Bojo is one of the worst PM's on record, Liz hahahahahahaha, and now Rishi is facing the music.