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General British politics discussion thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,871 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    So you state that it's "just wrong" to state that Britain is a right wing country whilst simultaneously stating that "Research has shown that once certain left wing policies are removed from Labour, they're quite popular on their own merit." You're sort of defeating your own argument there.

    You are, of course, entirely right. New Labour under Blair became Tory lite and in government implemented a lot of right wing Thatcherite neo-liberalist style policies. In fairness they did manage to implement some stuff from the left (minimum wage). Starmer is doing exactly the same with Labour 2024. As recently as March Reeves was pitching her reforms and herself as Labour's version of Thatcher.

    On Starmer you seek "expertise, sound judgment and competence" which is interesting as Starmer has never spent a day in government and has only been an MP for 9 years. Nevertheless you're entitled to assume he may have those qualities. Yet the vast majority of UK voters don't. Boris Johnson brought the best result for the tories in a generation and most people interested in politics knew he was a buffoon. Your average voter has little interest in politics and ain't a good judge of character or competence.

    "Ireland was going to be ejected from the EU any day now" - Well I certainly don't remember that.

    To claim that the tory media have no effect on UK elections is naive to say the least. Prior to the 1997 election Blair travelled to Australia grovelling for Murdoch's support. In 2020 when Starmer was running for the Labour leadership he stated this in reference to The Sun: "I certainly won’t be giving any interviews to The Sun during the course of this campaign". In 2023 this became "I'm very happy to work with The Sun, to write for The Sun, to do interviews for The Sun"



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,380 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Possibilities for major narrowing of the gap that brings the result into question.

    1. A scandal (real or not) involving Starmer and his time at the CPS which calls into question his judgement. Unlikely they've sat on something for so long though.
    2. Coming to an agreement with Reform, such that the latter stands down in some key constituencies. Seems unlikely.
    3. Getting Johnson to stand in a safe seat and then making him front and centre of the campaign. He is unaccountably popular. Sunak would probably have to agree to go by next summer. It all seems implausible.
    4. A major mistake in the Labour manifesto.
    5. Sunak being far superior in the head to head debates.

    Anything else?

    Labour obviously have no control over #1 to #3, but really shouldn't shoot themselves in the foot with #4. Nothing in 2 years of PMQs to suggest #5.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Won't change a thing - the British are a nation of subjects not citizens - they want to be governed by Toffs.

    The Tories have never once announced that they want to dismantle the NHS and yet they have been doing so since 30 years ago and the British public still believe that the Tories are safe hands to administer the NHS.

    The British are not just subjects, they are victims of their own mentality.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,152 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    @Shoog I wouldn't be remotely surprised if a Tory party gets back into power within the decade.

    Well, you know my opinions on Keir Starmer and the current Labour Party. But I'll be happily surprised if they turn around and actually have policies that change British life in any meaningful way. Right now, I see none of that. So, with what's on the table so far, I can't say that I'd be surprised if the Tories get back in within a few years either. Such is the tweedle dum tweedle dee of British politics.

    I'll be very happy to eat my hat if Labour can prove themselves make any use of the time they will have in government though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭Shoog


    You only have to look at the pair trooping to the food bank and declaring undying loyalty to the Tories.

    My parents are cut from the very same cloth and I guarantee that they will vote Tory this time just like they have for thirty years. I suspect my Dad was once Labour voter but that died once he was bought off with shares from his employer British Telecom.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,404 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Firstly, the Tory-lite thing is nonsense and always has been.

    Second, Starmer is a successful prosecutor and human rights lawyer as well as having been both an MP and a senior Labour party figure.

    Third, if the British public don't think Starmer is confident, why is he so far ahead in the polls?

    Blair and Murdoch were a two-way partnership. They both knew that the Conservatives were a busted flush so they worked together.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,404 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    That's a cherrypicked example though. Pensioners tend to be wealthier so they can buy their way around the struggling public sector but a large proportion are not so fortunate.

    I've an aunt who's ardently pro-Tory but she's stinking rich so that's her motivation.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,024 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    The NHS is beyond repair at this stage, let alone the huge problems with Dentists. People moan about the HSE, and rightly so, but it is imcomparable to what the NHS has become.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,395 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Johnson is not "unaccountably popular". As of March 2024, 70% of voters had an unfavourable opinion of Johnson, as comparied with 71% for Sunak. This made him more disliked than Nigel Farage (64%) and Jeremy Corbyn (65%). The only Tory who was even more unfavourable regarded was Liz Truss (81%).

    There's a vocal segment on the Tory right who think fondly back to the dear, dead days of 2019 when right-wing batshittery could get an 80-seat majority, and they credit Boris Johnson for that. They talk about his return a lot. But they are wildly out of touch with the reality of public opinion in Britain. Johnson turned himself into electoral poison.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,710 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    The historic trend is for Labour governments to last a maximum of 6 years, and Blair bucking this involved several stars in alignment. I can foresee this one being single-term if the Conservatives somehow manage to keep their heads down and mouths shut.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,404 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I spent a week in Ireland this year as my Dad was on his deathbed. On the HSE, he had his own little ensuite room with a TV that had about 20 channels on it. My aunt lives in NI and she says it's a wreck there. The patients apparently have to pay for the telly themselves as well. Here, you'd be stuck on a ward in a crumbling building staffed by locums.

    The dentist thing feels like a litmus test for everything else. It's seen as a bit less important but people tend to consume dental services more than the NHS as a whole. I don't get why so many people worship something that's so unfit-for-purpose.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,871 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    I'm sure you're capable of convincing yourself of anything. Blair/Murdoch worked together as a partnership to beat the tories …. Gimme a break. Who cares if Starmer was a lawyer? He's not that now. As regards Tory-Lite. . . What do you think the "New" in "New Labour" along the ditching of Clause IV in the Labour Party was meant to confer? The Blair government brought the private sector into the NHS in exactly as was intended by the tories.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,345 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    i've talked to colleagues in the UK who have had to wait three weeks for a phone consultation with a GP; and they don't live in a poor part of the UK, they're near reading.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,152 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    It's the principle and the idea that held in high esteem and rightly so.

    How it's been wrecked by bad actors over the years is another story.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,404 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm not interested in snarky comments.

    I was there when I lived in Hove. I was limping at one stage. It took 3 weeks to see the GP who told me to use tiger balm. Ended up going private. This was Hove, a wealthy swing constituency as well.

    Nobody else has copied it though. Europe (outside Ireland) seems to run on insurance-based systems. That said, the idea of the NHS is a nice one but it's impractical in a country with an ageing population which resents increased taxation.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,871 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    How many think Brexit is at the heart of these statistics?

    NEW: YouGov's under-50 voting intention

    Labour: 59%
    Greens: 12%
    Conservatives: 8%
    Reform: 8%
    Lib Dems: 6%

    YouGov's over-50 voting intention

    Labour: 36%
    Conservatives: 30%
    Reform: 15%
    Lib Dems: 10%
    Greens: 3%



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,395 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    No. To regain power, the Tories need to move back towards the centre of British politics.

    And I don't think they are going to do this to a sufficient degree in just one term. After they are whipped to a puree next month Sunak will resign and they will have to choose a new leader. Much depends on the makeup of the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party, which of course we can't know yet, but if history is anything to go by they are going to start out by hewing to the right, and only after they have cycled through one or two leaders from the right of the party wihout acheiving much traction will it dawn on them what they need to do. And I suspect by then they won't have enought time left to do it convincingly before the 2029 general election.

    Tl;dr: I expect the Tories to suffer a crushing defeat in this election; the kind that leaves a party reeling; the kind that you don't recover from in just one term. Labour are a reasonable bet for at least two terms of government and, while anything might happen, at this point we have no reason to expect that either the election due in 2029 or the one after that will be accelated by any significant amount.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,024 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Indeed, how long they spend in opposition will depend on who the next leader is. I'm praying that Braverman or Priti gets the job.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,404 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Setting 50 as a binary dividing line is meaningless. An 18 year old and a 49 year old will have different priorities.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,024 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Nah, the Under 50 demographic is just less racist



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭Shoog


    That was deliberate Tory mismanagement, and the brief period of Blair was no respite since they continued the privatisation by stealth.

    The NHS is still one of the most efficient public health services in the world and a reversal of the deliberate mismanagement would solve a lot. God help the poor British public if the Tories ever achieve their ambition of a full private health system.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,871 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    Electoral Calculus website is predicitng a Labour majority of 300+. I'm quoting this website as they predicted exactly the number of seats the tories got at the last election (365).

    If this happens then all bets are off. The tories might go out of existence. Personally what I think would occur if this did happen is that they'll go full crazy and take the Trump route. I wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Johnson returning and Farage joining to become its leader.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,404 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    This makes no sense. How can it be the most efficient healthcare system in the world if it is being mismanaged?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,024 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I used the NHS in the early Noughties and actually only ever had positive experiences in fairness. I am regurlarly over in England on business and visiting family and all i hear now are horror stories, (GP waiting times) and with the shortage of Dentists.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭Shoog


    That's the plan, have them begging for an insurance based alternative. **** fools.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Cost of treatments is massively lower than in comparable countries because of the NHS, but if you have no budget that doesn't equate to better services.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,152 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    @ancapailldorcha Nobody else has copied it though. Europe (outside Ireland) seems to run
    on insurance-based systems. That said, the idea of the NHS is a nice one
    but it's impractical in a country with an ageing population which
    resents increased taxation.

    The NHS is still widely regarded as one of the greatest forward thinking and progressive institutions that Britain has ever created and bear in mind, it isn't even 80 years old.

    That doesn't mean that either the NHS or our own national health service couldn't do with some serious study and reforms though. They absolutely can because they've been slowly getting cut to shreds over the years by vested interests that want to see them destroyed.

    However the alternative, if the neo-liberal/right wing get their way, would be a bloody nightmare for both Britain and us. It wouldn't take long for our health services to end up resembling the nightmare that is the American system. That was the system Mary Harney was in favour of when she was responsible for ushering in the HSE in the first place and getting rid of the previous Health Board system 20 years ago. Luckily she didn't entirely get her way, but she was instrumental in creating the disastrous lumbering bureaucratic monster that the HSE is today.

    Frankly we'd be better off going back to the health boards system we had in the first place.

    Certainly both systems can do with some serious overhauls. But what their opposers want to place in their stead isn't the answer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,535 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Micheal Martin introduced the HSE. Harney was after that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,152 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Harney was health minister in 2004. The HSE became a reality in 2005. She was very much at the head of it.

    That doesn't let Martin or FF off the hook.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,024 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    For another thread but i can't recall the Eastern Health Board(and other respresentative boards) having the problems the HSE has today



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