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Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,515 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    I guess the reality is that the core won't change, and you'll have some small portion that will vote for him for the lolz of a convicted president, but you would have to imagine that this will be a big hit for him for independents, floating voters, etc. You might see a portion of people who were leaning Trump and feel they can't vote Biden shift over to Kennedy now, which ultimately could help Biden



  • Registered Users Posts: 851 ✭✭✭I.R.Y.E.D


    Correct there is plenty of evidence already online that they don't have possession of their faculties, the mental capacity or have enough in common with him in relation to some of his convictions and brain farts for it to make a difference.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The bookies that according to you "rarely get things wrong" have got every election involving Trump wrong so far.

    What makes you so certain that they're going to be right this time??



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,292 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    He has been shameless from the start and an egregious contradiction to all the values (Christian) conservatives loudly claim to uphold. Yet whatever 2024 brings he already got voted in once.

    The independent and wandering vote must surely be lost but the base and media mouthpieces will and have remained dogged in defending Trump.

    Sums what up? That tedious refrain that it's not a "real crime", like tax evasion and so on? Nobody died etc etc. Seems apt another media blowhard would trumpet that the crime is trivial, makes you wonder what Morgan has got up to in his life, given he created en entire public vendetta against a woman that ghosted him. Can't imagine there isn't more.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,442 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I fully expect the MAGA diehards and the Christians to be all in at this point. I was referring to your American centre-right types. Surely some of them must be at least asking questions at this point.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    Two elections wrong in 140 years would make me think bookies are generally right. In 2016 nobody foreseen trump like Devon loch losing the grand national but in 2020 it was toss of a coin the same as this election will be. To think what happened in new York yesterday is going to have a major effect on trumps chances is imo wishful and naive.

    https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-how-betting-markets-foresaw-the-result-of-the-2020-us-election-150095

    Records of the betting on US presidential elections can be traced back to 1868. Since then, no clear favourite for the White House had lost before 2016, except in 1948, when the 8 to 1 longshot and sitting president, Harry S. Truman, famously defeated his Republican rival, Thomas E. Dewey.

    In 2016, the exception was repeated when Hillary Clinton, trading at 7 to 2 on (equivalent to a win probability of about 78%) as polls opened, lost in the electoral college to Donald Trump. In so doing, Trump defied not just the polls and the experts but the “wisdom of the crowd” as displayed in the betting markets.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,442 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Bookmakers are not clairvoyant. They get things wrong all the time. There's also more than 5 months to go before the election. A lot can happen between now and then.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,693 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    A lot of past elections were won closer to the polling day- it’s way too early to call it - who knows what sho1te will arise and when but it’s likely to be a dirty battle on both sides



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    There's already extensive polling showing that up to 20% of current Trump voters have said they would no longer vote for him if he was convicted of a felony.

    The polling says about 5% definitely wouldn't vote for him if convicted and another ~15% would seriously consider not voting for him if convicted.

    So if those 5% definites and even if only small % of those that say they'd consider not voting for him decide not to , then he's done.

    A swing of 7/8% away from Trump to either Biden or Kennedy is a death knell for his chances

    I'd argue that the presence of Kennedy on the ballot will make it more likely that those in the "considering" bucket above choose not to vote for Trump because Kennedy gives them a way to do that without voting for Biden.

    There is zero polling indicating that people would change their vote to Trump as a result of him becoming a felon. It will certainly galvanise the supporters he already has and they will probably give him more money to spend on lawyers , but there is no evidence to suggest that it's going to win him "new" support from people that weren't planning to vote for him already.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    bookmakers don’t predict. The are accountants who move odds to make profit. If Trump is favourite it’s because people are betting on him. Simple.

    It’s basic actuarial maths.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,442 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The both sides thing is both tedious and transparent.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    Yes I think we all know what bookmakers do. The fact is whoever had been made favourite with them wins the election, since 1868 they have been 95 percent correct. Trump is slight favourite at the moment with all bookmakers hence he has a better chance than Biden. Simple



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Except for every election involving Trump which is the salient point here.

    In fact they've been wrong about every election since 2016 - As has the majority of polling as well to be fair.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,442 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    There's a flaw in your reasoning. Even if this were true, we don't know that Biden won't be the favourite closer to the day.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,693 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    I tend to agree that he won’t gain new support as a result of this conviction - wonder though what would happen if Trump were jailed? I think it’s very unlikely but if it did happen, I think that’s when he’d receive new support - not because he’s Trump- more because he’s an ex president - I don’t think Americans in general like to see their presidents jailed regardless of rally cries - convictions or fall from grace followed by presidential pardons like Nixon they’ll live with but unless this is a smoking gun plain murder I don’t think they have the appetite for jailing their presidents



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,420 ✭✭✭Deep Thought


    The narrower a man’s mind, the broader his statements.



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    Is it more accurate to say that all elections involving trump did fall within the expected margin of error for the polls. The electoral college can turn tiny margins into an outsized overall win though.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,297 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I don't think they are ignorant or shameless; that would imply they have not seen what Trump says etc. They are rather self deluded; they are down the rabbit hole that no matter what they are behind Trump in the same way people who've spent hundred of thousands on various mail frauds (Nigerian prince, boyfriend who's rich but only needs to borrow some money for plane tickets who then gets kidnapped etc.) or Brexit sunny honey covered roads and still believe in it. It's not about that what happened does not make sense; it's about refusing to change their world view because by doing so they would have to admit they been lied to and where fooled. it's easier to keep trucking along down the rabbit hole instead than to accept that; which is why they can claim they support the police and flip around and say the riots on 6th Jan were done by Anti FA or ok anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,626 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Would the fact that Trump basically abandoned and turned his back on New York as a voter base, moving to Florida lock, stock and barrel have any effect on NYC and State residents opinion of him?

    When he did move to Mar-A-Lago, the news was about how many of the other Mar-A-Lago residents were opposed to him setting up his residence there as his new home, that they didn't want him there in that guise. Now they have a convicted felon as a neighbour.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,411 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    not really. New York hated him before he moved.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 87 ✭✭Ribs1234


    interesting that the GOP yesterday and today is all about distracting from the 12 ordinary Joes finding that Trump did bang Stormy, lied about it and paid her off to keep her quiet. Up to now that story was in doubt.

    I’d imagine this is more damaging to his Christian conservative base than some election rules and so the GOP want the conversation about something else.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    NYC born and raised here. Knew about this grifter since the 1970's. My brother worked on the city desk in NYC for the Post post-Murdoch. Trump would call his lackey Steve Dunleavy to kill stories about him that were due to come out, usually involved bad behaviour at dumps like Studio 54.

    Trump was, is, and will be an odious turd. A turdlump can't change its stench. Laughable that the Evangeliban back him up so much. He gave them what they wanted though, first steps to Gilead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,411 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    interesting that the GOP yesterday and today is all about distracting from the 12 ordinary Joes finding that Trump did bang Stormy, lied about it and paid her off to keep her quiet. Up to now that story was in doubt.


    That isn't what he was convicted of. He was convicted of hiding the payments to Stormy as payments for legal services.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Exactly - He's always been despised in NY.

    Depending on who you were , you hated him for different reasons.

    If you were a regular person you hated him for his long history as a slum land-lord

    If you or your family had any connection to the trades/construction you hated him for being known for stiffing contractors , hired scab labour and doing shady deals with Mafia Front companies for things like Concrete.

    If you were a "NY social elite" type you hated him for being the ignorant oaf that he is and for his constant attempts at inserting himself into your social circle and generally just being an embarrassing buffoon.

    The rest of the country really only know the "Apprentice" Trump and the MAGA Trump - New Yorkers know who he really is and they hate him for it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,631 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I saw a post on social media today - "Who would think American democracy would be saved by a porn star?"



  • Registered Users Posts: 35,954 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde




  • Registered Users Posts: 87 ✭✭Ribs1234


    not completely true, he was convicted of hiding these payments to influence the election of the president.

    For conviction, the prosecution needed to establish that there was a reason for the payments, and that the payments took place.

    There would have been no conviction if no payments. His mistake is either hiding the payments or doing the dirty deed - perhaps he should have been honest about banging her? That’s not the path he chose.
    Just like the GOP you are twisting and wiggling here to change the conversation. He should have kept it in his pants if he wanted to be president.




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,626 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    As its generally understood that bookies don't like losing money, just accept it as a fact of life in their business, will there be a fall-off in bookies accepting bets when Trump looks like being a sure thing in the election or are the bets for him to be a loser?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,411 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    There would have been no conviction if he hadn't hidden the payments as legal fees. There was nothing illegal in sleeping with stormy Daniels and nothing illegal in paying her to keep quiet.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 851 ✭✭✭I.R.Y.E.D


    Seen that some wit placed the symbol for a registered sex offender over the property online



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