Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

hearing mad stories from work colleagues about crappy 1 bed loft apartments doubling from 138000 to 290000 in 5 years and houses in naas going from 300000 to 900000 in again about 5 years are things really that frothy out there? is this level of price rise in a few years really sustainable in the short- mid term future..... ?

just seen a long standing car dealership in Midlands closing suddenly too are car sales really after slumping that much too

must be far too many FG landlords and land owners in the dail that will have to change by the looks of it

Also are all these 100k+ salaries sustainable? Are these jobs always going to be there or phased out (not all) to be shipped in cheaper locations who offer better infrastructure/ accommodation?

So let's say wages 110k is this going to be 180k in few years?

If that is the case yes house prices will raise again.

Spotted a house on Griffith Ave the other day on the market for 1. 9 million. Nothing special in my eyes and on a busy junction. That house couple of years ago would have been 800k.

All data per CSO:

Average weekly earnings Q42018 €755.99, Q12024 €969.12 = 28.2% increase

Dublin property price index Q42018 125.8, Q12024 156.9 = 24.7% increase

All Ireland price index Q42018 133.8
Q12024 178.3 = 33.3% increase

So wages have outstripped prices in Dublin over the last 5 years and lagged a bit behind country wide. Factor in the loosening of LTI limits (the key limiting factor for most buyers) which gave people up to 14% extra borrowing power, houses are more attainable today than they were in 2018 and considerably more attainable in Dublin.

To directly answer your question. Yes, if wages increase 5% - all else being equal you would expect home prices to increase roughly 5%. The LTI multiple is irrelevant as the percentages all move together.

On your point about the average person not being able to buy a new build in Dublin. Yes it would be great if they could but:

• by definition a house in Dublin will be more desireable than average
• A new house will be more desireable than an older one
• A new house in Dublin will be therefore significantly more desireable than an ‘average house’. They’re likely to be in the top 10% of most desireable homes country at a minimum .
• How can you expect an average income worker to afford a far more than average house. This doesn’t make sense

Going beyond that, your link shows Dublin to be ‘unaffordable’…but it also shows Dublin to be more affordable than almost any other major city in the world. And by some distance in many cases. Average income workers have not been able to buy a home in any major first world city for a very very long time. It may seem less than ideal, but all these places keep on going. The affordability gap is far wider in most major cities than here.

Huge increases in gross earnings.

Almost no change in tax bands.

This is a really important point. In the last 30 years the post-08 crash was nothing but a mere blip lasting between 2009-2013 but surrounded by growth in pretty much every other of the 26 years. It’s truly waiting for Godot to dwell on what was a sharp but very short-lived correction in the Irish property market which ended half a generation ago and trying to use that for context as to what could happen to the current market!

All achieved by massive amounts of debt

France debt downgraded yesterday, US looking like it could hit a Liz Truss moment at anytime. China is stockpilling gold, copper and oil. Russia nuclear saber rattling again. Never been so much visible risk out there yet.

Jamie Dimon said last week that Goldma Sachs was not buying back anymore shares as they were too expensive. Later that week they hit a new high. Looks very blow off top mode

The money printing and zero interest rate genie is getting found out

If Dublin is classified as severely unaffordable and other cities are nearly twice as bad, that to me is a huge risk rather than a sign that this unaffordability can deteriorate for another decade

Thanks @DataDude for doing the numbers

I spent some time working as an investment adviser back around 2015/16 and at that point we were telling clients that every equity valuation metric was flashing red.

Sure there will be another downturn, but timing it is almost impossible, and it will likely be relatively short lived. It’s factually just terrible advice to suggest hold off buying in the hopes of nominal price falls in property. It almost never happens, and what’s worse at the moment, the rental market is so expensive you need significant nominal falls to be better off.
I’d confidently put the chances of this as less than 10% in a high wage inflation environment. I’m hopeful we will see 5-15% REAL reductions in prices over the medium term. But this still means prices go up in nominal terms.

On your point of affordability in Dublin, it’s a great aspiration but it’s a bit farfetched. If you suggested that average income workers should be able to buy a new 3 bed semi in almost any other capital city, people in those countries would think you are mental.

Dublin will continue as all other capitals do. Younger people on average wages rent in house shares or in state subsidised accom. A small percentage of people will earn/inhert enough to buy in the city. The majority will move a 45-120min commute outside the city when they want to start a family. Thats been the reality for decades around the world and looks strong favourite to remain so.

Anticipating a fundamental change in the way the world works is fine to speculate on, but terrible to base your decisions on or worse - mislead desperate 20 something year olds into believing their pipe dream of average priced 300k gaffs in Dublin is going to come to fruition.

A bit baffling that you need 10 staff to monitor it. Simple IT solution.

Does property have valid registration registration number

Does registration number correspond with post code

We had reports here of council staff and other public sector staff breaching these rules. Looking after there own, I suppose

Separately the most recent public sector pay deal had assurances built in that AI would Not replace existing jobs. I wonder does extend to a few lines of programming code that eliminates the need to monitor

Another one ex fianna fail now running as independent - Irish times

Limerick election candidate sought €360,000 in ‘go-away money’, Galway developer claims

Mr Pat O’Neill, who is from Clonmacken in Caherdavin, was a Fianna Fáil candidate in the 2019 local elections in North Limerick but left the party this year. He is now running as an Independent candidate in the June 7th elections.

Revenue already know who the host is with Airbnb as all income earned through the site is automatically forwarded to Revenue, but the Host may be someone renting the property rather than the owner. Leg work is required because advertising was not prohibited, whereas short letting is, ergo, they have to prove someone stayed in the property.

Again, advertising on a site without planning was not prohibited, and a not an indicator of ownership. The current legislation punishes property owners, but the Host may be renting the property, so LAs not only have to catch the tenant there, they have to confirm that it was the owner who short let the property.