Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Not traditionally, they've eaten Irish Labour's lunch on a move towards the centre and that's now dropping away in favour of independents with Labour being too small/disorganised to capitalise on it. The purity of the left also plays a role here with many socialists unable to forgive labour for their measured approach after the financial crash, they would have preferred a Greek style mess, ignoring that the markets exert a lot of control here if you want access to markets and not crash a currency a la Iceland (and just for balance, truss also got chopped down for extreme policies on the other side of the spectrum).

A party that was in the mid 30's themselves in 20/21?

Will SF stay on their current % as FG have for a long time now, remains to be seen.

My fear is not SF falling but the rise of the rightwing that current governance is engendering. FG chasing it by hardening their immigration stance is scary and I hope SF don't chase that vote.

Every party has spewed forth a mass of new posters this week.

I wonder was it planned that way or a reaction to something

The trend is down hugely for SF. Surely you must be worried given you are the most vocal supporter of SF on this site?

Or is it head in the sand stuff?

She will.

The right wingers will get bored when the scatter of seperate candidates that they are lose their deposits in the Euro's

Thats the thing about the poll...answering independent means someone different and un connected in each constituency is being promised a vote

A dis jointed vote vs a party vote

The anti government vote will come home to Sinn Féin once theres less hoo ha about migrants,with those voters realising voting independent doesn't do the job

If this is the focus of the 'change starts here' slogan,it's genius

Those thinking the sinn Féin show is over are deluding themselves.

Focusing on the GE...People can still vote independent if they choose to do so.

I am not surprised to see indies becoming the largest supported "party"and predicted same earlier in the year, but the current poll only spells bad news for SF and makes an FFG led govt even more likley than it has been for the last 2 years; and it has always been the most likley outcome anyway.

The polls wouldn’t support this view - they explicitly asked that question:

“This means almost one in four voters are planning to vote for Independent candidates or those representing small political parties.

In a forced choice, the public voted overwhelming in favour of the next government being a combination of Fine Gael-Fianna Fail-Independents (59pc) rather than a Sinn Féin led government excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil (41pc).”

Why’s that?

They laughed when I predicted Leo would lead his crew back ti GE numbers.
If MLMD can’t deliver she will no doubt face the same end as Leo.

Were SF ever that popular? They were the convenient recipients of a protest vote it now seems

Look at Martin Browne in Tipp, from losing a council seat to getting 10000 FPVs in the space of a few months. The same happened all over the country in 2020.

What did he or SF do to make the gains? Well, nothing except shout loudest really. The independents are shouting louder now and SF have lost their voice

Extreme Comical Ali levels of denial here.

SF have failed to provide a viable opposition - people have given up on a front bench that's aging and based entirely on shouting.

They're in Government in NI, again; and doing stuff that's entirely opposed to what they claim they'd do down here - the realities of coalition, something they attacked other parties for doing. And people are able to see the results of their efforts in Stormont.

How would they win votes back?

I don't know how long you have been into politics.

A party's polling will go up and down.

Within the margin for error SF haven't lost a single vote yet.

What they seem to be doing IMO is holding fire, not chasing that 'angry about immigration' vote and they seem happy to let that vote go if it wants a right wing approach to immigration.

Personally I would be more worried about the right wing making ground here than whether SF get into government or not.

 is losing them votes.

But they haven't lost votes. They are well up in polling on their last EU outing. I haven't seen local election polling and within the margin of error they still have the % they had at the last GE.

Meanwhile, as FG toughen up on immigration, they will win back more votes from those concerned about immigration; particularly those that do not want to support a far right party, as you rightly say.

I would contend this is the riskier strategy from FG - when their hardened 'stance' doesn't match what is actually happening they could be left very exposed.

@FrancieBrady havent Sinn Féin lost potential votes though,thats what polls predict and secondly,who could be happy in Sinn Féin after nearly 5 years of opposition to be back below where they started?

Isn't that quite damning of their strategists and Mary Lou's leadership ?

To be level with the main opposition party after 13 years in power is surely a monumental win for Fine Gael ?

I don't see how any of the above is deniable ?

The anti government vote will come home to Sinn Féin once theres less hoo ha about migrants,with those voters realising voting independent doesn't do the job

There is absolutely no reason why that would happen. We have seen that the vote for SF is as soft as the snow. SF core vote is approx 10%, not 25%, not 35%.

There was some good analysis in the Sunday Indo, the term "The herd has moved" was used and it was correct in this instance. People flocked to SF back in 2021/2022 as they were annoyed with the government, now the same herd has moved away from them, mostly to Indos but also FG is getting a slight bump too.

MLMD has been invisible for these last 12 months. Like, where is she?

She was over in Boston at a $500-a-plate fundraising BBQ the other week, while her candidates were out knocking on doors and getting run out of the place in more working-class areas, as some reports are being told. Not a good look.

We all know the boys in West Belfast run the party and put forward policy and they are far removed from the nature of politics in the south.

SF should be romping up to victory with a 35%+ of the vote, but instead, they could be nearer 20%.

An absolute disaster and cluster **** of epic proportions.

PhD's and books will be written about this fall from grace.

SF will spin it as a win regardless, but the fact is, if SF get 22% of the vote in a GE they will lose seats. Astonishing.