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Could Ireland survive without importing anything?

  • 04-06-2024 12:03am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 650 ✭✭✭


    If, for whatever reason, we could no longer import food or energy - would it be difficult, or even possible, to keep the population fed?

    Assuming we'd be eating a lot of beef for a while…



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 650 ✭✭✭Pompous


    I should have clarified: this hypothetical would be a sudden stoppage of imports. Like a natural disaster or WWIII taking down supply routes. So we wouldn't have time to prepare by switching to better crops for example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭Aurelian


    One is reminded of DeValera's attempts to grow tobacco.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Ireland produces enough food especially dairy and meat to feed over 20 million people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 567 ✭✭✭geographica


    Eamon Ryan would says yes, but only if you have a south facing windowledge and a packet of lettuce seeds



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 567 ✭✭✭geographica


    The amount of fish from our waters shipped to Spain and France we’d be ok for seafood



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭gipi


    Lots of food, but no power to cook it (no imported gas so no electricity), no fuel to transport the food around the country either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Nope. Because those industries are utterly dependent on imported grain, which the OP has said you can't do.

    Edit: Reflecting on this, we have to appreciate that most Irish cattle are kept indoors for 3-4 months per year. Trying to feed the grass in fields during the cold weather would mean weight loss, illness and the fields being in utter mush from the weight of the cattle on wet ground. Without the imported grain and the ability to harvest silage with machinery, the risk is that many cattle and other animals would starve if the disruption lasted for a winter. A cull of a large number of the animals would reduce demand for feed and allow those cattle to be fed to other cattle, oh sorry we don't do that any more, to humans.

    Post edited by Victor on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    With no fuel, how are you going to catch and distribute the fish?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 219 ✭✭Greengrass53


    We'd be fine after an initial disruption. We have enough food to feed ourselves 10 times over. Energy wise we now produce 30 % of our own thru wind alone. Thanks to the efforts of people like eamon Ryan this is increasing all the time. With more offshore turbines being rolled out we can easily double this by 2030.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    While the situation would be dire, 40% of our electricity (electricity, not total energy, which is much higher) comes from wind. We have some indigenous gas and other sources. The problem would be to stop resources being frittered away.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 762 ✭✭✭GSBellew


    Sail boat, donkey and kart, like it was in the old days.

    That is what would have to happen if we could not import fuel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    With ample use of fossil fuel derived fertiliser and fossil fueled machinery.

    If Ireland lost access to all imports there would be a breakdown in social order within a few weeks and a outright famine in months



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 567 ✭✭✭geographica




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    And would the catch be comparable to what the other poster says in "The amount of fish from our waters shipped to Spain and France we’d be ok for seafood"?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,486 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    We'd all have to go shopping in Newry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,522 ✭✭✭StudentDad


    The population in the 19th century before the famine was higher that it is now. If we couldn't import food or energy I'm assuming there would be no flights or shipping. Has the wider world bought it? Are we an isolated little island? It'd get pretty agrarian, but to answer your question. Yes we would be grand. Who needs a new laptop from China anyway?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,569 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Vegans would die out.

    Not necessarily a bad thing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The pre-famine population was higher than now, but the great bulk of them lived in abject poverty, and even that was sustained by some imports. The staple diet of the peasantry was potatoes, bacon, butter, tea, sugar, and two of those five foods were imported. (Imports were paid for by growing grain for export.) Even the relatively simple agricultural implements used by the peasantry to produce food were imported. (Indeed, virtually all manufactured goods other than some textiles —wool and linen — were imported.) To the extent that they required metal, imported agricultural implements could not be replaced by local manufacture that was not itself dependent on imports. How well do you think we'd fare with wooden spades?

    The OP's scenario is a sudden stoppage of imports, with no time to prepare for the transition. Even if we were willing to go back to pre-famine levels of consumption, the transition from our current import-dependent agricultural practices would take years. For example, without powered machinery, we have to raise a large national herd of beasts of burden to maturity to, e.g, draw ploughs, power milling and threshing engines, pull carts. During the several years required to do this, many of us would starve.

    We'd all have a much more nearly vegan or vegetarian diet than we do now. During the transition period it would be crucial to use the limited food production resources available to us with maximal efficiency, so that as few as possible would starve. Agricultural resources are used vastly more efficiently when put to the production of vegetable crops as food than when put to the production of fodder for animals that are to be slaughtered and eaten. A lot of what's now pasture would be put to the production of food crops. The onion- and turnip-ranchers of Meath would be the new elite!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,374 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Not a chance. Ireland makes a lot of foodstuffs, but very little actual food.

    Sure around here there's thousands of acres given to barley for whiskey .

    No way would farmers be able to pivot and provide enough food for the population. Even if we could grow it, we don't have the resources to refine it and transport it.

    Just for fun, read the book World War Z about a zombie apocalypse. Nothing to do with the movie. There's a chapter where society is trying to rebuild itself, but no one has even basic skills. There's a lovely bit where a cleaner becomes the supervisor of her former employer, because the employer used to be a digital marketer which is now a useless job



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Potato 74 Kcal per 100g.
    Onion 40 Kcal per 100g.
    Turnip 28 Kcal per 100g.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,688 ✭✭✭Field east


    By horse and cart or by bicycle if you hav’nt. horse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,100 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,716 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Unless we have some way to stabilise the grid with asynchronous generation, very little of our electricity will be coming from Wind or Solar.

    We have (at best) 10% of our gas needs coming from Corrib, the rest is imported. In an emergency, GNI will prioritise residential rather than industrial customers. Therefore 0% gas will go towards electricity production. Eirgrid currently has a system stability limit known as the SNSP which is set to 75% for non synchronous sources. That means that for every 1 MW of electricity produced, 25% of it will have to come from synchronous sources such as thermal or hydroelectric.

    We have approximately 500 MW of run of river hydro and pumped storage, so in theory we could have 1.5 GW of wind or solar to complement it. But both hydro and pumped storage are energy limited and cannot run at peak output indefinitely. In summertime, unless it's particularly rainy, the hydros won't be able to run much at all. Pumped storage can only run while the reservoir is full, once it is empty, then you have to use your limited electricity to fill it again. In this case, you'd be using the 200 MW of hydro plus 600 MW of wind or solar. But again, if it's not raining, good luck...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,374 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    funny enough, 99% of domestic solar would stop working when the grid went down. I don't think many people are set up to island their system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,468 ✭✭✭BrianD3


    Even with the amount of agricultural land we have and our low population density, we'd be just as fcuked as other countries. Societal breakdown would start within hours as thousands of idiots descended on supermakets to fight each other over white bread and toilet roll.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We absolutely could.
    It would be totally different system to what we no now.

    But our agricultural policy’s at the moment have us extremely vulnerable to something like this at the moment. I think we would run out of food very very fast. And it will fail at some point

    I keep a close eye in the supermarket of where it’s coming from. Blueberries from chile or South Africa! For f##k sake. Most veg coming from Holland or Spain. Apples from New Zealand!!!

    Ridiculous



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,374 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Yep, that's the seasons though.

    Our winter is their summer, the alternative is no summer fruits in the off season, or we build vertical farms and grown everything in artificial conditions.

    I saw a company selling 40 foot containers which contain everything needs to grow fodder for cattle. They're designed to be dropped in African countries. You feed water, seeds and liquid fertilizer in one side and get a constant feed of grass put the other. I was thinking would it work for human edible grasses too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,569 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore




  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭1percent


    Breakimg it down, what is important is food, water heat/energy, shelter and security. We would have 12 to 24 months or 2 or 3 harvests to rejig the economy and society in this scenario before seriousprobems would arrise,

    Regarding heat/energy; NORA has 12months supply of oil at current usage with immediate rationing and shuttering of non essential industries, I'm looking at you data centers, we could strech it to 24months. Gas would be a challenge alright but with corib, quick development of bio methane reactor and exteam rationing we could get part of the way their. I also think there is a bit of coal still in the ground down in castlecommer.

    Food wise we are fine, massive roll out of back yard veg patches and huge drive for composting, and restrictive use of fertilisers already on shore we can more than feed ourselves.

    Water, non issue, literally falls from the sky here is excessive amounts

    Security would be the challenge for us, there would need to be a zero tolerance, f about and find out policy. Internment of malcontents and heavy handed approach approach non compliance. We all need to be inthis together and anyone pedeling backwards removed.

    Life would be very diferant and not for the better but as a nation we could survive with most of society intact



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Nobody said the coming apocalypse would be tasty.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,731 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    A lot of NORAs oil is stored in the UK who will absolutely just seize it off us when we need it.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 50,356 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    We would have 12 to 24 months or 2 or 3 harvests to rejig the economy and society in this scenario before seriousprobems would arrise,

    really? i would be sceptical that there's enough food in storage in the country to feed the population more than a couple of weeks before we'd have to switch to an all-meat diet. which would be a serious problem.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 50,356 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    i was at a talk about growing your own food, given by a then well-known organic gardener who asked the audience 'is anyone here planning on becoming self-sufficient in food?', and in response one hand went up.

    'i hope you like turnip' was the rather glib response.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,955 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    I found this book: https://www.awesomebooks.com/book/9780865715530/gardening-when-it-counts?gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIytjcksTBhgMV55NQBh1zkAogEAQYBCABEgIsAvD_BwE

    by Steve Solomon, had some interesting tables in it, of what 'natural sources' of fertilizers (chicken manure, seaweed, guano) contributed in terms of N/P/K. Aha! I found it:

    In addition, Solomon talks about minimum sizes to grow enough vegetables for 1 person. As I recall, I think he said about 1/4 acre per person per year, and you'd eat a lot of potatoes, not so much turnip.

    Solomon had no use for Rodale and 'organic everything' philosophy, he didn't think you can subsist on what you grew without external, non-organic inputs. He advocated for a home-made fertilizer comprising seedmeal, dried blood, feathermeal, and managing the C/N ratio, which I forget what that's about, CRS syndrome.

    Anyway, I do remember that it was an interesting read. Solomon made his $$ selling the Territorial seed company in Oregon and moved to Tasmania (lucky b*stard). https://soilandhealth.org/steve-solomons-home-page/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,731 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    There's only so much seaweed for fertiliser; and there used to be actual killings over access to beaches and ownership of the seaweed thereon back in the old days (Victorian era mostly).

    Plenty of the agri co-ops around the country started not as dairies, but as group buying schemes for artificial fertiliser due to the supply problems for natural fertilisers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 567 ✭✭✭geographica




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There's a reason why the potato was the staple crop in pre-famine Ireland — it's incredibly nutritious. Provided you eat the whole spud, skin and all, then with relatively modest quantities of bacon, salt and some leafy green such as cabbage you're got a pretty good diet. Plus, it stores well without refrigeration, so as long as you grow enough of them you can eat potatoes year-round.

    Pre-famine, the Irish peasantry were noted for being surprisingly healthy and well-nourished, given their dire poverty. So, yeah, in the scenario painted by the OP we would likely default to a potato-dominated diet. Boiled potatoes, since that's the most fuel-efficient way of preparing them, and fuel would be at a premium. Pig-meat would be the dominant meat, since you can feed pigs on practically anything and they don't take up a lot of grazing land that could otherwise be used to grow potatoes. Plus, it cures well, which helps with storage. We'd be rearing sheep for wool (we won't be wearing cotton any more, obviously, and in this climate we can hardly go in the nip) and that would mean some lamb meat as well, but that would be mostly seasonal — lamb with the new potatoes. Various greens when in season. A smattering of other root vegetables for variety, and a modest amount of grain production for bread. Salt can be reclaimed from the sea but, alas, no pepper.

    One factor not already mentioned is that, if we can't import anything, we have no use for foreign currency — ultimately, all you can do with foreign currency is buy stuff in foreign-land. And if we've no use for foreign currency then our export industries fold, because what's the point? This will free up a large workforce to weed the spud drills, which is good because it's all going to have to be done by hand.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 50,356 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    the issue with that scenario would be ramping up to it; given the OP suggested this change would be immediate, the 'what to keep to act as a seed for long term' vs. 'what we need to eat now to stop people dying' would be a tough call.

    e.g. if you could turn one potato into ten, to increase the amount of potatoes in the country by a factor of ten would require us to stop eating potatoes and keep every single one we have for next year's crop - and that cycle takes a year to increase by a factor of ten.

    in 2022, we had 8.5k Ha of spuds growing, and an average yield seems to be about 25 tons per Ha.

    which, if my calculations are correct, is a little shy of 1kg per capita per week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭1percent


    I did not know that, that would be a problem alright



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,723 ✭✭✭Feisar


    Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.

    First they came for the socialists...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,731 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Actually it seems to have changed - they have none in GB anymore; some in NI and other storage locations in Denmark, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands

    Used to be extensively in Wales; I'm guessing Brexit has been an issue.

    But the stuff in NI is even shaky - during the extremely hard frosts in ~2010, the UK stopped us getting road salt from the NI salt mines despite pre-existing contracts to do so.

    And stuff in Scandinavia or Spain may as well not exist if we aren't allowed access it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    Yes and no. Technically yes, but there would be a lot of sacrifices to be made and life would be difficult initially.

    The variety of food would be significantly reduced… no spices, rice etc. It would be a very bland diet. We would also need to reduce the herd size to grow more grains. Fetiliser would be an issue but we could counterbalance it by adopting regenerative farming techniques or developing new fertilisers (seaweed etc). This would take time to implement so it would be a tough first few years.

    The real problem lies in fuel and components. Things we take for granted like petrol, diesel, and coal would not be accessible. We could look at alternative fuels like biodiesel and electricity, but growing food is one thing, having the logistics to deliver is an other. We may need to rebuild the train lines and work on a peat-burning locomotive! We still have an issue with sourcing components. We have the experience and factories to do this, but it boils down to raw materials. Tools would also be an issue and these are vital to productivity.

    Likewise, medicines would be an issue. Yes, we have the factories here to make medicines, but they rely on imported ingredients.

    Clothing is not something we make en masse and we rely on imported cotton. We don't have near enough factories or expertise to cater to our current needs. We would need to go back to the old ways and lose the mentality of fast fashion.

    I think we could manage on the electricity front although it would be limited. The wind turbines rely on imported components but I think we could make them here - we have the expertise. We would have to resurrect the old peat-burning stations and take control of our gas reserves.

    Most people would need to reskill as most of the service industry would be redundant. It would be tough as hell and we could be living like 60 years ago, but if you look at Cuba and North Korea, they have managed and they have nowhere near the fertile land that we have, or the educated workforce.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    Not too difficult to fix. The reason it stops working is a safety measure to ensure ESB technicians are not at risk from electricity going back to the grid when they're working on the lines. If you install a switch to take you off the grid or isolate a circuit, solar can work in a domestic setting when the grid goes down. Most people don't bother as it's not a major issue and when the power goes, it's generally for a couple of hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭nachouser


    No more soy mocha frappuccinos? We're screwed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,374 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Does Ireland produce these switches in this hypothetical?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,569 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Isn't most of the turf worked out at this point in the Midlands, what with over a half century of intensive harvesting?

    Bord na Mona are fast disposing and scrapping plant and equipment, all those office and pharma workers thrown into idleness will have to get handy with sleans, shades of the Emergency years!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    I was only giving a reason as to why most systems go offline when the grid is down, as some people might think it isn't fixable or it's a serious flaw. Obviously, you have an understanding of how solar works, but many people don't.

    I already stated in a previous post that components would be a huge issue. Could we produce a switch? I think we could, or we could devise a rudimentary manual switching process. I have seen YouTube videos with very rudimentary switches that work - they're not as safe as would be required with current standards, but beggars can't be choosers. However, with components being an issue, once the inverters start to fail, having the ability to switch would be a moot point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,569 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Cuba had some hard times after the fall of the USSR, near famine conditions.

    We came scarily close to famine in the 1920s, something that's not widely known. A couple of bad harvests and now with unpredictable weather, we could be fcuked without imports.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/1925-famine-1740003-Oct2014/#:~:text=A%20number%20of%20people%20died,denied%20it%20was%20a%20problem.&text=IN%201925%20THE%20Irish%20government,had%20already%20starved%20to%20death.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    Cuba is about 36% larger than Ireland (109,880 km² v 70,280 km²) and its population is around double that of Ireland - in 1990 during the fall of the USSR, the population was 10.63 million versus 3.514 million in Ireland at that time.

    I agree that it would be very difficult and you are spot on about a couple of bad harvests - with global warming, this is a very real possibility as proven by the last few summers.

    I'm just hypothesising about a scenario, and I gave a very broad opinion that didn't take into account a lot of variables. I mentioned Cuba and NK as they have managed albeit with a lot of difficulty. One thing I have learned is that people usually adapt and figure out how to survive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,522 ✭✭✭StudentDad


    I didn't say it would be pleasant. I said we'd be grand, in that we'd survive. As I said it'd it be very agrarian.



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