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Could Ireland survive without importing anything?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 69,006 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    A lot of NORAs oil is stored in the UK who will absolutely just seize it off us when we need it.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,621 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    We would have 12 to 24 months or 2 or 3 harvests to rejig the economy and society in this scenario before seriousprobems would arrise,

    really? i would be sceptical that there's enough food in storage in the country to feed the population more than a couple of weeks before we'd have to switch to an all-meat diet. which would be a serious problem.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,621 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    i was at a talk about growing your own food, given by a then well-known organic gardener who asked the audience 'is anyone here planning on becoming self-sufficient in food?', and in response one hand went up.

    'i hope you like turnip' was the rather glib response.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,566 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    I found this book: https://www.awesomebooks.com/book/9780865715530/gardening-when-it-counts?gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIytjcksTBhgMV55NQBh1zkAogEAQYBCABEgIsAvD_BwE

    by Steve Solomon, had some interesting tables in it, of what 'natural sources' of fertilizers (chicken manure, seaweed, guano) contributed in terms of N/P/K. Aha! I found it:

    In addition, Solomon talks about minimum sizes to grow enough vegetables for 1 person. As I recall, I think he said about 1/4 acre per person per year, and you'd eat a lot of potatoes, not so much turnip.

    Solomon had no use for Rodale and 'organic everything' philosophy, he didn't think you can subsist on what you grew without external, non-organic inputs. He advocated for a home-made fertilizer comprising seedmeal, dried blood, feathermeal, and managing the C/N ratio, which I forget what that's about, CRS syndrome.

    Anyway, I do remember that it was an interesting read. Solomon made his $$ selling the Territorial seed company in Oregon and moved to Tasmania (lucky b*stard). https://soilandhealth.org/steve-solomons-home-page/



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,006 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    There's only so much seaweed for fertiliser; and there used to be actual killings over access to beaches and ownership of the seaweed thereon back in the old days (Victorian era mostly).

    Plenty of the agri co-ops around the country started not as dairies, but as group buying schemes for artificial fertiliser due to the supply problems for natural fertilisers.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 449 ✭✭geographica




  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There's a reason why the potato was the staple crop in pre-famine Ireland — it's incredibly nutritious. Provided you eat the whole spud, skin and all, then with relatively modest quantities of bacon, salt and some leafy green such as cabbage you're got a pretty good diet. Plus, it stores well without refrigeration, so as long as you grow enough of them you can eat potatoes year-round.

    Pre-famine, the Irish peasantry were noted for being surprisingly healthy and well-nourished, given their dire poverty. So, yeah, in the scenario painted by the OP we would likely default to a potato-dominated diet. Boiled potatoes, since that's the most fuel-efficient way of preparing them, and fuel would be at a premium. Pig-meat would be the dominant meat, since you can feed pigs on practically anything and they don't take up a lot of grazing land that could otherwise be used to grow potatoes. Plus, it cures well, which helps with storage. We'd be rearing sheep for wool (we won't be wearing cotton any more, obviously, and in this climate we can hardly go in the nip) and that would mean some lamb meat as well, but that would be mostly seasonal — lamb with the new potatoes. Various greens when in season. A smattering of other root vegetables for variety, and a modest amount of grain production for bread. Salt can be reclaimed from the sea but, alas, no pepper.

    One factor not already mentioned is that, if we can't import anything, we have no use for foreign currency — ultimately, all you can do with foreign currency is buy stuff in foreign-land. And if we've no use for foreign currency then our export industries fold, because what's the point? This will free up a large workforce to weed the spud drills, which is good because it's all going to have to be done by hand.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,621 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    the issue with that scenario would be ramping up to it; given the OP suggested this change would be immediate, the 'what to keep to act as a seed for long term' vs. 'what we need to eat now to stop people dying' would be a tough call.

    e.g. if you could turn one potato into ten, to increase the amount of potatoes in the country by a factor of ten would require us to stop eating potatoes and keep every single one we have for next year's crop - and that cycle takes a year to increase by a factor of ten.

    in 2022, we had 8.5k Ha of spuds growing, and an average yield seems to be about 25 tons per Ha.

    which, if my calculations are correct, is a little shy of 1kg per capita per week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭1percent


    I did not know that, that would be a problem alright



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,672 ✭✭✭Feisar


    Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.

    First they came for the socialists...



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  • Registered Users Posts: 69,006 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Actually it seems to have changed - they have none in GB anymore; some in NI and other storage locations in Denmark, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands

    Used to be extensively in Wales; I'm guessing Brexit has been an issue.

    But the stuff in NI is even shaky - during the extremely hard frosts in ~2010, the UK stopped us getting road salt from the NI salt mines despite pre-existing contracts to do so.

    And stuff in Scandinavia or Spain may as well not exist if we aren't allowed access it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    Yes and no. Technically yes, but there would be a lot of sacrifices to be made and life would be difficult initially.

    The variety of food would be significantly reduced… no spices, rice etc. It would be a very bland diet. We would also need to reduce the herd size to grow more grains. Fetiliser would be an issue but we could counterbalance it by adopting regenerative farming techniques or developing new fertilisers (seaweed etc). This would take time to implement so it would be a tough first few years.

    The real problem lies in fuel and components. Things we take for granted like petrol, diesel, and coal would not be accessible. We could look at alternative fuels like biodiesel and electricity, but growing food is one thing, having the logistics to deliver is an other. We may need to rebuild the train lines and work on a peat-burning locomotive! We still have an issue with sourcing components. We have the experience and factories to do this, but it boils down to raw materials. Tools would also be an issue and these are vital to productivity.

    Likewise, medicines would be an issue. Yes, we have the factories here to make medicines, but they rely on imported ingredients.

    Clothing is not something we make en masse and we rely on imported cotton. We don't have near enough factories or expertise to cater to our current needs. We would need to go back to the old ways and lose the mentality of fast fashion.

    I think we could manage on the electricity front although it would be limited. The wind turbines rely on imported components but I think we could make them here - we have the expertise. We would have to resurrect the old peat-burning stations and take control of our gas reserves.

    Most people would need to reskill as most of the service industry would be redundant. It would be tough as hell and we could be living like 60 years ago, but if you look at Cuba and North Korea, they have managed and they have nowhere near the fertile land that we have, or the educated workforce.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    Not too difficult to fix. The reason it stops working is a safety measure to ensure ESB technicians are not at risk from electricity going back to the grid when they're working on the lines. If you install a switch to take you off the grid or isolate a circuit, solar can work in a domestic setting when the grid goes down. Most people don't bother as it's not a major issue and when the power goes, it's generally for a couple of hours.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭nachouser


    No more soy mocha frappuccinos? We're screwed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,216 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Does Ireland produce these switches in this hypothetical?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,319 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Isn't most of the turf worked out at this point in the Midlands, what with over a half century of intensive harvesting?

    Bord na Mona are fast disposing and scrapping plant and equipment, all those office and pharma workers thrown into idleness will have to get handy with sleans, shades of the Emergency years!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    I was only giving a reason as to why most systems go offline when the grid is down, as some people might think it isn't fixable or it's a serious flaw. Obviously, you have an understanding of how solar works, but many people don't.

    I already stated in a previous post that components would be a huge issue. Could we produce a switch? I think we could, or we could devise a rudimentary manual switching process. I have seen YouTube videos with very rudimentary switches that work - they're not as safe as would be required with current standards, but beggars can't be choosers. However, with components being an issue, once the inverters start to fail, having the ability to switch would be a moot point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,319 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Cuba had some hard times after the fall of the USSR, near famine conditions.

    We came scarily close to famine in the 1920s, something that's not widely known. A couple of bad harvests and now with unpredictable weather, we could be fcuked without imports.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/1925-famine-1740003-Oct2014/#:~:text=A%20number%20of%20people%20died,denied%20it%20was%20a%20problem.&text=IN%201925%20THE%20Irish%20government,had%20already%20starved%20to%20death.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭RoboRat


    Cuba is about 36% larger than Ireland (109,880 km² v 70,280 km²) and its population is around double that of Ireland - in 1990 during the fall of the USSR, the population was 10.63 million versus 3.514 million in Ireland at that time.

    I agree that it would be very difficult and you are spot on about a couple of bad harvests - with global warming, this is a very real possibility as proven by the last few summers.

    I'm just hypothesising about a scenario, and I gave a very broad opinion that didn't take into account a lot of variables. I mentioned Cuba and NK as they have managed albeit with a lot of difficulty. One thing I have learned is that people usually adapt and figure out how to survive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,495 ✭✭✭StudentDad


    I didn't say it would be pleasant. I said we'd be grand, in that we'd survive. As I said it'd it be very agrarian.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,621 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    again, the key issue here is whether you acknowledge the OP's clarification that the change would be instantaneous, or not.

    it's one thing pivoting to complete self-sufficiency, with a few years to do it, and quite another to deal with an instant shutdown of our supply of nearly all veg and all fruit?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,319 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    NK in particular has had devastating famines but for propaganda reasons won't relay figures to the outside world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Whats that saying -we're all just meals from revolution..

    When there were fuel truck strikes in the UK a few years back the big fear was no fuel -no trucks -and the supermarkets shut down , no business carries stocks anymore , so you need to get grain to the flour mills , flour to the bakeries, bread to the supermarkets, and all staff need transport, as well as each business needing power ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,909 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    There'd be a period of serious breakdown - how long that would last is anyone's guess - and then we would learn to work with what we have.And people would start coming up with ideas and different ways of doing things, and we would muddle along.It would look very different to how it does now, and the learning curve would be vertical, but we would get there in the end.It wouldn't end in the entire population being wiped out, put it that way, and surely that is the key point for any species?!



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,566 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Fortunately we don't have as many ambient firearms as in the US.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,253 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    On those talking about cotton being an import, I don't think clothing would be an issue for at least a decade or two. Between the existing stock in stores, stuff in charity shops and obviously what already exists in domestic wardrobes there's enough to keep people clothed for plenty of time until such time as international trade recovers (via sailboats if necessary) and / or the domestic woollen industry was able to ramp up (which surely it would as lamb became a more important component of the national diet).



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,310 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    This is the most interesting thread After Hours has had for about 3 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,243 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Ireland imported very little during the Second World War. Stopping imports would mean, no oil imported. Almost all private transport would cease very quickly as would all logistics. The supermarket shelves would go bare in a few days with no distribution system in place. Creameries and other food processors would have difficulty operating as they could not collect or distribute their product. As in the Second World War period bicycle tubes wore out and couldn't be replaced. Whatever power is available through water, solar or wind would have to go to keep bakeries and hospitals going. There would likely be no power for freezers or fridges in shops. City dwellers would be foraging with a week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,205 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    To answer the OP,

    Of course we'd survive.

    It'd be utter sh*te and a miserable existence, but we'd survive.

    There's a vast difference between survive and thrive.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,621 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    my eight bikes would rocket in value i suspect. bring it on!



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