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Could Ireland survive without importing anything?

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 50,356 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    again, the key issue here is whether you acknowledge the OP's clarification that the change would be instantaneous, or not.

    it's one thing pivoting to complete self-sufficiency, with a few years to do it, and quite another to deal with an instant shutdown of our supply of nearly all veg and all fruit?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,569 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    NK in particular has had devastating famines but for propaganda reasons won't relay figures to the outside world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,609 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Whats that saying -we're all just meals from revolution..

    When there were fuel truck strikes in the UK a few years back the big fear was no fuel -no trucks -and the supermarkets shut down , no business carries stocks anymore , so you need to get grain to the flour mills , flour to the bakeries, bread to the supermarkets, and all staff need transport, as well as each business needing power ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,914 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    There'd be a period of serious breakdown - how long that would last is anyone's guess - and then we would learn to work with what we have.And people would start coming up with ideas and different ways of doing things, and we would muddle along.It would look very different to how it does now, and the learning curve would be vertical, but we would get there in the end.It wouldn't end in the entire population being wiped out, put it that way, and surely that is the key point for any species?!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,955 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Fortunately we don't have as many ambient firearms as in the US.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,276 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    On those talking about cotton being an import, I don't think clothing would be an issue for at least a decade or two. Between the existing stock in stores, stuff in charity shops and obviously what already exists in domestic wardrobes there's enough to keep people clothed for plenty of time until such time as international trade recovers (via sailboats if necessary) and / or the domestic woollen industry was able to ramp up (which surely it would as lamb became a more important component of the national diet).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    This is the most interesting thread After Hours has had for about 3 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,353 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Ireland imported very little during the Second World War. Stopping imports would mean, no oil imported. Almost all private transport would cease very quickly as would all logistics. The supermarket shelves would go bare in a few days with no distribution system in place. Creameries and other food processors would have difficulty operating as they could not collect or distribute their product. As in the Second World War period bicycle tubes wore out and couldn't be replaced. Whatever power is available through water, solar or wind would have to go to keep bakeries and hospitals going. There would likely be no power for freezers or fridges in shops. City dwellers would be foraging with a week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    To answer the OP,

    Of course we'd survive.

    It'd be utter sh*te and a miserable existence, but we'd survive.

    There's a vast difference between survive and thrive.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 50,356 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    my eight bikes would rocket in value i suspect. bring it on!



  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭1percent


    Your last point there I think is a good one, I think General satisfaction would increase as people move from moving numbers on a computer to working with their hands and the real impact that work would have, if you dont harvest enough turnips the winter will be very bad.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,955 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Think of all the meat and vegetables you could trade them for!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭lalababa


    There is a mountain of beef n sheep n milk products. A pile of fish. Loads of whiskey. Loads of clothes. Ireland is not a cold country..so a couple of jumpers n a hat indoors in the winter. I'd say we'd band together fairly well. Initially we'd be grand from all the stocks we have and from a few years on we would have adapted ..no problem. We don't grow much wheat or vegetables but we'd up production. We would be basically living like our grandparents n probably better off!



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 50,356 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    again, the OP said there'd be a sudden unexpected collapse in shipping. that's a very different scenario from having time to completely reorient our entire system of agriculture.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭lalababa


    There are 5 million sheep slaughtered a year in ireland alone. That's a sheep and a fleece for everyone in the audience.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,970 ✭✭✭✭Dial Hard


    Exactly how long do you think a single sheep would keep the average person fed for???



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭nachouser


    Turf powered hospitals? Within a generation we'd be back to industrial age standards of living. We have so much stuff but no means to replace / repair it indefinitely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,276 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Purely back of an envelope using figures pulled from Google but the question intrigued me so I took a shot at answering it:

    Google says there are 292 calories in 100 grams of Lamb and that the mature weight of ewes is 80 – 100kgs.


    If we assume every part of the animal is used (bones used to make broth, we're eating eyeballs, tongue, offal all used etc.) and take a conservative estimate of 50kgs of edible material per animal that works out at 46,000 calories per animal.

    At 2,500 calories a day (well above anyone's starving level), that's 58.4 days of food.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭weemcd


    Yes. If you could live without:

    Food

    Pharmaceuticals

    Medicine

    Fuel

    Fertiliser

    Technology



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭Boardnashea


    If it got to the stage of not being able to import anything, I imagine we would not be keeping the data centres open for too long. Huge power saving there and their power storage would allow us to smooth our wind energy. I could happily power my house with my few solar panels - maybe not hoover so often, but would be able to keep the car going for small journeys for at least some of the year.

    I would also allow the neighbours access to some ground for growing their own veg, or increase my own production and use surplus to barter/trade.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭artanevilla


    The Irish State? No

    The people currently occupying the Island of Ireland? Yes, but not in a lifestyle as we know it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭facehugger99




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Social order in the cities would be a problem as much of what they are used to would be gone and rationing would have to be introduced. You are right too that the loss of much fossil fuel derived fertilizer and imported fuel would impact on the volume of production. However, other sources cold come into play if they wern't exported i.e. gas, veg oil diesel HVO, seaweed etc. I am not saying they would replace totally our dependence on FF but essential services could still run. Still we would be in a much better position than most other Western Nations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    And I suppose the "party" will be on hand to give out turnips if anyone doesn't harvest enough turnips.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,640 ✭✭✭✭_Brian


    be great.
    first thing is we’d all need to eat more meat and dairy. Two wonderful foods that thankfully we produce in abundance thanks to our climate. We could well get by on these until we got serious about supporting our market garden sector to produce suitable fruit and veg in larger quantities. It’s important to remember though that something like 70% of our land isn’t suitable for crops so beef and dairy would still prevail as major food studs.

    I’d say fuel rationing would have to happen immediately so it’s reserved for food production and powering essential services like hospitals

    Strange food problems would pop up, like we produce loads of wheat but there’s essentially no commercial milling happening so flour and porridge would be scarse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,511 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    "so beef and dairy would still prevail as major food studs." - looks like we have a volunteer for milking the bulls.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭lalababa


    You're looking at 30kg (including offal) per sheep at 1/2 kg a day....60 days. But then you have the 1.8 million cattle slaughtered per year giving 550 million kgs of beef giving another 220 days at 1/2 kg a day. Pigs would be 3.3 million or 80 days at 1/2kg. 100 million chickens give another 60 days. That's 60+220+80+60= 420 days of 500g meat for 5 million people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,081 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    no, the economy would completely collapse! best of luck with trying to provide critical needs such as food, energy and health care needs under such conditions!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭nachouser


    And it sure wouldn't be 5m people for very long. Once supermarkets run dry in the first week(??), then 95% of the population will be completely fupped. Sure, you might have a few potatoes, tomatoes and a bit of lettuce growing in the back garden but good luck with that keeping you going until nationwide food distribution is sorted from the - presumably now nationalised - main food producers in the country. It's Mad Max: Fury Road time after the first couple of weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭silliussoddius




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,081 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …been there done that, interesting country but not exactly democratic nor wealthy and healthy for most….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 432 ✭✭teediddlyeye


    "I never thought I was normal, never tried to be normal."- Charlie Manson



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭silliussoddius




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,875 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    How many horses, carts and bicycles are there in the country? We'd be a minimum of a couple of years waiting for even a few horses, who knows how to make cartwheels now? Though maybe recycled car wheels might work, and opening a bicyle factory would be a great idea, but where would the metal come from?



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Well here in Switzerland it is not hypothetical, we have stock pilled sufficient reserves for the population for about 6 months along with sufficient seeds to start growing crops etc. after the apocalypse or whatever… Manufacturers and import merchants are required by law to hold sufficient stocks at their expense to cover six months and it is inspected on a regular basis to ensure it truly exists. This was the lessons learned from WW2 and the cold war.

    The funny thing is we were about to vote on reducing and eliminating some of those stocks just before covid struck and the polling was showing it would be an easy win! So how did it work out - mixed. There was no panic buying everyone knew we had sufficient stocks of everything, including toilet paper for 9m people for 6 months! Having it and being able to distribute it are two very different things. A lot of it is squirreled away under the Alps (which are like a Swiss cheese now so much stuff is under them) and little thought was put into how you actually get it out and onto the shelves in the supermarkets! It took about three months to get it flowing and even the postal services lorries etc were brought into service.

    Could Ireland survive, probably but it would need a lot of planning up front and as far as I know that is absent today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 432 ✭✭teediddlyeye


    This

    Lawlessness, famine and killings in a matter of weeks.

    Assuming any oil reserves stored overseas would be seized by wherever they're stored (wouldn'tblame them either tbh). Whatever you have in the tank and whatever you're willing to pay/fight for at the local forecourt is all you're getting.

    Assume every home heating tank will be raided almost instantly as well!

    Big lol at the "we'll just have steak and milk", how does a modern farmer reliant on diesel power for everything do anything without fuel? Genuine question, does everyone have a donkey and cart on standby? Do we have that many donkeys and carts? There'll be fights over them as well!

    Can't go back to everything non mechanised at the flick of a switch, be like asking someone at Space X to work on a Saturn V!

    "I never thought I was normal, never tried to be normal."- Charlie Manson



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,486 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    When a country is part of the EU there is no need. We all look after each other in times of emergency. Switzerland should join.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Ya, maybe you should learn a bit more about the EU's competences and indeed if you are that interested the Swiss bilateral agreement with the EU. The EU treatys mutual assistance clause requires members to come to each other's aid to the best of their ability that does not include stock piling food stuffs, building nuclear bunker of putting the logistics in place for Ireland. rescEU is really just getting of the ground now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Ireland has a minimum 90 days supply of fuel in reserve. This would give some time to adapt. Also if this were to come about fuel would be strictly rationed and priority given to farming, certain industries and the military. Private motoring would come to an end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,486 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Do they keep the gold in with the toilet rolls?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭nachouser


    Distribution is the problem. When food can no longer be purchased with money, because it is now worthless, it is an end game. It's a good thread:-)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,659 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    You would need to get in with an old-style traveler (used to living outside the system ) and an old-style farmer who was still using horses until the 70s and only got pumped water and electricity in the 70s so they might be ancient. Still, they have the old-school knowledge of how to do it without modern machinery. The third member of the tribe would be the kind that can make or fix anything and has a shed full of bits of everything.

    Then you might survive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Why would money be worthless? Some items would become extremely expensive but meat/milk/cheese would be plentiful with no external market. Rationing would also become the norm and enforced by the police/military with food distribution a priority. We would still have gas and electricity (electric vehicles) but otherwise a bit like the Emergency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭nachouser




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,486 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    If it happens after this new bridge is built from Louth to Down, there will be chaos at the border.



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