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Boards weather forecast contest June 2024

  • 30-05-2024 5:25am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭


    Usual five questions plus bonus … June monthly average 13.6 C.

    I am having issues with Boards with block copying of data (note mess of last effort to post a contest thread starter) so for now relying on your recall to place five questions in usual order.

    BONUS is based on suggestion in April from tae laidir (IIRC) and asks you to predict number of totally dry days for Dub(A) in June.

    We will define dry as trace or zero, and non-dry as any numerical amount. If our field of entries looks more similar to days of .01 or .02 at end of month, that will influence how I score this question.

    Just for starters, I will predict as follows:

    14.2 _ 27.5 _ 1.7 _ 070 _ 125 __ 13 days

    will work out values for normal later, I think 10-12 dry days would be about average but I will try to find out.

    In case I don't get anywhere with that, Normal could be 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 11

    There are often "trace" amounts just from morning dew or one or two random raindrops so I will go with climatology convention and include trace in dry day total. I'm sure there will be a few nuisance 0.01 to 0.20 mm values but again, going with convention those count as non-dry even if "wet" would be inaccurate as a description.



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Definition of a dry day I presume should have a daily rainfall total of 0.2mm or less.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,253 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry- 14.4 _ 25.5 _ 2.7 _ 078_ 116 __ 16 days

    In case I forget



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 348 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 27.3 ___ 3.5 ___ 80 ___ 114 ____ 19

    Post edited by kindredspirit on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,697 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ________ 14.6 ___ 25.8 ___ 3.1 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 11



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,030 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ________ 14.3 ___ 25.4 ___ 3.3 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 13



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  • Registered Users Posts: 49 Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad ___16___27____3.5____075____126____17



  • Registered Users Posts: 577 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ________ 15.5 ___ 27.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 16



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal________ 14.8 ___ 24.9 ___ 3.3 ___ 75 ___ 112 ___ 15



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I looked into "dry day" frequency and found data for Dub (A) stating average (1991-2020) is 15 days each way (> 0.2 mm ), no data available for marginal cases of frequency of trace or 0.1. As I plan to count only days with zero or trace reports, I believe the 15-15 split is consistent with a "normal" of 11 or 12 days of entirely dry days. So adjust any predictions if you used a different concept, the contest count will be trace or zero amounts only. I hope it won't make a big difference to outcome.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,320 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ________ 13.8 ___ 26.1 ___ 2.7 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ 14



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,417 ✭✭✭esposito


    Esposito ________ 13.3___ 25.8 ___ 3.0 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 14



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,930 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall_____13.8___27.2___1.5____90____110____16



  • Registered Users Posts: 195 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3______14.8 _ 29.0 _ 2.5_ 090 _ 105 __ 15 days



  • Registered Users Posts: 379 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ______ 14.9 ___ 26.8 ___ 3.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ____ 17



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Wolfeeire________14.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.9 _ 088_ 110 __ 14 days

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo ________ 14.8 ___ 26.2 ___ 3.6 ___ 117 ___ 92 ___ 10 days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 399 ✭✭mrskinner


    skinner___14.5___26___2.4___92___102___19



  • Registered Users Posts: 740 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir_______ 14.7 ___ 26.7 ___ 3.2 ___ 100 ___ 105 ___9




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,844 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa _____ 14.8 __ 27.1 __ 3.3 __ 115 __ 98 __ 12 Days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop 14.0___27.3___3.1___122___95___12 days



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn. 14.2 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _90_ 15



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    joe public 15.2 _ 28.7 _ 1.3 _ 110 _ 95 __ 11 days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels 14.7 ___ 25 ___ 3.4 ___ 107___ 92 ___ 10



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,139 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac ________ 14.4 ___ 26.1 ___ 3.1 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 18



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,218 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire ________ 15.0 ___ 25.5 ___ 1.5 ___ 90 ___ 100 ___ 18

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610__15 _ 28.9 _ 1.3 _ 80 _ 111 __ 16 days

    I'm awful for remembering this on the 31st

    Mod Note: I edited your temperature to be 28.9C and not 289C!

    Post edited by Gonzo on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Day one is dry (trace).

    min 3.6 C



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2024

    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ dry days Dub(A)

    Cornerstonelad __________16.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 075 _ 126 ___ 17

    Dasa29 ________________15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16

    Joe Public ______________15.2 _ 28.7 _ 1.3 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11

    Adam240610 __ (-1) _____15.0 _ 28.9 _ 1.3 _ 080 _ 111 ___ 16

    Kindred Spirit ___________15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 114 ___ 19

    Rameire _______________15.0 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 18

    Sunflower3 ____________ 14.8 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 15

    Dacogawa _____________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 3.3 _ 115 _ 098 ___ 12

    Gonzo ________________ 14.8 _ 26.2 _ 3.6 _ 117 _ 092 ___ 10

    Bsal __________________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 3.3 _ 075 _ 112 ___ 15

    Tae laidir ______________ 14.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.2 _ 100 _ 105 ____ 9

    200motels _____________ 14.7 _ 25.0 _ 3.4 _ 107 _ 092 ___ 10

    sryanbruen _____________14.6 _ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11

    ___Consensus __________ 14.6 _ 26.7 _ 2.0 _ 092 _ 100 ___ 15

    MrSkinner ______________14.5 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 19

    john mac ______________ 14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 18

    Pauldry ________________14.4 _ 25.5 _ 2.7 _ 078 _ 116 ___ 16

    waterways _____________ 14.9 _ 26.8 _ 3.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 17

    Artane2002 ____________ 14.3 _ 25.4 _ 3.3 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 13

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 14.2 _ 27.5 _ 1.7 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 13

    Jpmarn ________________14.2 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 15

    WolfeEire ______________ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.9 _ 088 _ 110 ___ 14

    Appledrop _____________ 14.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.1 _ 122 _ 095 ___ 12

    Mr Stonewall ___________ 13.8 _ 27.2 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16

    DOCARCH _____________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 2.7 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14

    ___NormaL ____________ 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12….. ….. ….. ….. ….. Esposito _______________13.3 _ 25.8 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 14

    ===============================

    Consensus of forecasts, quite warm, a bit dry and near average sun.

    Distribution of dry days forecast

    19 _ 2

    18 _ 2

    17 _ 2

    16 _ 4

    15 _ 3

    14 _ 3

    13 _ 2

    12 _ 2

    11 _ 2

    10 _ 2

    09 _ 1

    (Just to restate point about contest count, 0.1 mm will not count as dry in contest, if we get any 0.1 days, but I will keep track of impact on count … good luck and thanks again for suggestion on dry days.)

    _____

    note: seeing I am not only one getting the odd grey background on block copies, one appears in entries too, and as I copied your entries, I got one more but we'll see if it makes any appearance when I post (I got it copying john mac's entry).

    (edit _ one odd posting detail, cannot get post to appear as typed for lowest portion (Esposito) so trying to fake it with dots)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So far, 3/3 days at Dub (A) dry, all trace amounts so far.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Today will be the 1st wet day at Dublin Airport.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just a side note, entries will soon close for 2024 N Atlantic tropical season contest (enter here but entries are from three different weather forums) … separate thread is open but you can post here, by end of week.

    I note one hour of 0.2 mm at Dub (A) on 5 June, if that is daily total also, will count as "non-dry" even though quite a dry day otherwise. This is how met.ie counts also, according to 30-year normals, frequency entry is

    >=0.2 mm

    implying that 0.2 mm is not dry and 0.1 mm is considered dry by them (but if we get a 0.1 mm, it is going to be counted as non-dry also).



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,320 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Low of 4.0c at Knock and Mulligar yesterday.

    Probably lower for today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    3.6 already noted earlier.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,320 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Another 0.2mm of rain for 6th at D.A.

    So that's 3 dry days and 3 days with some rain.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,253 ✭✭✭pauldry


    3.5c in Mullingar last night. Potentially.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,320 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    No data for Mullingar for yesterday so we may never know!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭appledrop


    It's confirmed now, 3.5 yesterday at Mullingar.



  • Registered Users Posts: 740 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Also only trace rainfall for Dub Airport yesterday, and looks like the same today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After first week …

    IMT_ 12.1 (0.7 below normal)

    MAX_ below 22 C

    MIN_ 3.5 C

    PRC_ 24% of normal

    SUN_ 107% of normal

    dry days Dub(A) _ 4 of 7



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Sat is actually counted as wet day at D.A with 0.8 rain.

    It must have fell during the night as no rain during day here at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    4 of 9 dry days now, as Dub(A) recorded 1.6 mm past few hours. The 0.8 mm on Saturday was recorded in hours 07-08. A very cool air mass settling in across Ulster, temps widely below 10 C and over in Scotland generally around 7 C at low elevations, -1 to +1 C on peaks. Timing may not suit everyone but it's good to see a deep cold air mass on maps again (after quite an absence).

    (later edit) _ 3 C at mtdillon around 03-04 … likely to be a new min.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Min 2.5 confirmed at Mt Dillion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Will need to check again as 3 C hourlies at two locations last night also (Mountdillon and Gurteen).

    Also, 10th dry (tr) so count is 5/10 now. Yesterday's IMT was only 10.9 and today looks to be about 11 also, after ten days it was 12.0 C. Fairly good sun values for such a cold interval.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Now we have a MIN of 2 C at Claremorris (05h, 06h) to check.



  • Registered Users Posts: 740 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Mt.Dillon 2.4 for yesterday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    According to one source, Clare… 1.8 C is new value. Also, 6/11 days dry (11 June trace).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I was looking at our min forecasts and Con Sensus should be 3.1 C and not 2.0 C as shown, unsure how I came up with that. We have a few forecasts below 1.8 C.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,320 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Claremorris 1.8c yesterday.

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,678 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I am seeing 1.8 for Claremorris on website, maybe an edit? … also dry on 12 at Dub (A) so 7/12 dry so far.



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