Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Options
1…778779781783784…804

Comments

  • Options
    #23402
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122219709#Comment_122219709

    So our government produced legislation, intended to improve rental supply for long term tenants, and that legislation decreed that it was illegal to buy a property and use it for short term lets, but not illegal to rent a property and use it for short term lets.

    No wonder we have a few issues with housing.



  • Options
    #23403
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/06/05/mary-lou-mcdonald-says-300000-price-tag-refers-to-affordable-homes-not-average-dublin-houses/

    €300k average house prices in Dublin promise was click bait nonsense? I’m stunned….



  • Options
    #23404
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭tigger123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221349#Comment_122221349

    Regardless of where your political leanings are, it was a very definitive position to take initially, and then its quite the u-turn.

    I heard the interview with Pat Leahy where she said it initially; she was very clear at that time what her position was. That in of itself was surpirsing and clearly signalled that she was chasing the votes of young (and not so young) renters. And also essentially ceding most home owning votes to the FFG.



  • Options
    #23405
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221745#Comment_122221745

    Textbook case of trying to pretend government is a series ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ decisions that can keep everyone happy if you choose ‘correctly’ rather than the reality of it being a series of compromises. Prioritising one group over another etc.

    When pushed on the downsides of your policies you either have to directly contradict yourself (eg 300k houses) or live in fantasy land - we wouldn’t change immigration or ask communities permission…we’d just talk to them and ‘explain’ it to them and they’ll be fine with it (I’m not joking, this was her view).

    I wish Claire Byrne pushed her on the health system impacts of their tax policies reducing the net pay of every consultant doctor in the country by c.10% when we already can’t fill posts.

    I am kinda suprised how quickly they came off their cheap housing schtick though given how much support it brought them. If she was slightly better prepared she could have danced around it.

    Complaining is easy. Fixing is hard.



  • Options
    #23406
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users Posts: 5,169 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Mary Lou had the easiest job in the world.

    Just keep quiet, maintain the status quo until the election and let FFG continue to shoot themselves in the foot.

    How it's all fallen apart in the past 4 months. Seems to be no consistency in their message, swinging one way and another over Palestine, immigration, economy, housing etc etc.



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #23407
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122222458#Comment_122222458

    This is a bit beside the matter at hand, and I'm not having a go at you, but can we please stop referring to politicians and senior civil servants by their given names? These people are not our friends, quite the opposite in fact.

    Post edited by RichardAnd on


  • Options
    #23408
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭tigger123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122222434#Comment_122222434

    No matter who's in Government, if the opposition was in power we'd live in a utopian society.

    The perspective from the opposition re migration really grinds my gears in particular. The basic position is that the Government nend to do whatever they're not doing, but they can't, becuase they're idiots.



  • Options
    #23409
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭arctictree


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122219940#Comment_122219940

    The new Bord Failte registration will not make any difference. AirBnb owners will just register with BF, get a number and continue short term letting. You just have to tick a box to say that you have planning, you dont have to prove it.

    Also, Revenues only remit is to make sure that the tax is paid. Many AirBnb owners are tax compliant but not planning compliant.



  • Options
    #23410
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Looks like an ECB rate cut is all but guaranteed to be announced tomorrow.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/05/european-central-bank-set-to-cut-rates-for-the-first-time-since-2019.html



  • Options
    #23411
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223245#Comment_122223245

    Unsurprising. More funny-money on the way!



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #23412
    SpoonyMcSpoon
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    They only need to cut rates and aim to keep inflation at 2%; there was no significant economic crash which warrants rates to now be cut dramatically so we won’t see many rate cuts. The funny money that has been hoovered up by the property market since the start of COVID through to early 2023 is probably still on fixed rates or only recently coming off fixed rates; the hundreds of euro extra payments each month are therefore only starting to materialise now. That will be a stress test for the property market over the rest of this year and into next year - to see if the higher rates actually managed to cool the huge price increases we keep seeing. €3/4/500 extra per month since 2020-2022 isn’t going to break the bank for most of those who were able to obtain significant mortgages where they will see these types of monthly repayment increases is my view; probably just wait an extra year to get the newer car as a sacrifice. Therefore, there is road to run in the property market in Ireland as rate cuts won’t do much to us compared to what they may do in other countries with traditionally much lower mortgage rates and where their economies have actually slowed much more than ours the last few years. Probably the election in Ireland coming later this year or early next year will be the next big market event to watch, especially if we see no majority government readily formed thereby creating a power vacuum with no government for a while will lead to less supply and more demand so higher prices. It is quite a bleak outlook for the market when we need to see it cool a bit so more supply comes on stream for people to move around more; upsizing, downsizing etc.



  • Options
    #23413
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223118#Comment_122223118

    Presumably BF's ten strong enforcement staff might think to ask for evidence of planning permission before granting the number. It's not a exactly difficult thing to prove.

    Whether they do or not is another question. The point is ensuring compliance with the law that short term lets require planning permission to operate is not a particularly hard thing to enforce assuming there is a willingness to enforce it.



  • Options
    #23414
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭arctictree


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225252#Comment_122225252

    Well that's exactly it. I remember when the legislation was announced, there was a statement that owners will not be required to provide proof of PP to register. Ie self regulation!



  • Options
    #23415
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,565 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225252#Comment_122225252

    There are exemptions to PP not in the case of second properties but in the case of PPR. However the EU questioned the legislation especially for rentals in holiday areas. So if you had a long term holiday let in a tourism area it probably likely you will get PP I'df you do not already have the house registered as a holiday home.

    There is supposed to be around 12k properties nationwide. I stayed in an aerBnB lately, owner(50% with a brother) is living in for want of a better word a basement flat. This is a newly done up property in a tourism area 3X2 rooms with a bathroom and cooking facilities in each mini suite. As he lives there it he is exempt from BF and planning is only required if they exceed 90 days which they will. Will planning be refused, as they have only recently done up the house planning may already be in place

    There is a lot of similar aerBnB's nationwide. Grannyflats, old farm houses in farm yards, apartments by cohabiting couple where one party still has the property registered as a PPR.

    IMO this is no magic bullet. A lot of renting nay move off line onto word of mouth or use multiple rental sites. Register with BF use foreign as well as Irish rental site. Leave your cards available for direct contact.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Options
    #23416
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225414#Comment_122225414

    No doubt airbnb etc is valuable for tourism in popular tourist areas. Which is exactly why the planning requirement only applies in RPZs.

    As I understand/understood the legislation, it would be well nigh impossible for your average airbnb host to get planning permission in an RPZ.



  • Options
    #23417
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭arctictree


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225676#Comment_122225676

    To register with BF, you will not need to prove you have planning, you just have to tick a box. They say that they have no role in planning and this is totally up to the applicant. See

    https://www.failteireland.ie/supports/registration-and-grading/short-term-tourist-letting-register/faqs.aspx

    I doubt this is going to deter any current AirBnB owners that dont have planning.



  • Options
    #23418
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225676#Comment_122225676

    Kerry was listed as the third most unaffordable region in the country last week.

    A sensible approach to short term lets would probably fix that quickly in a county where they campaigned for ghost estates to be demolished to protect the holiday home sector at the time.



  • Options
    #23419
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122226004#Comment_122226004

    Pretty astonishing really.



  • Options
    #23420
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225003#Comment_122225003

    They only need to cut rates and aim to keep inflation at 2%; there was no significant economic crash which warrants rates to now be cut dramatically so we won’t see many rate cuts.

    The markets have priced in interest rates falling to 3.5% by the end of this year and declining to 3% next year. Only time will tell what happens in reality, but one or two rate cuts is not the expectation. Three more cuts are forecast for this year alone.



  • Options
    #23421
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122226180#Comment_122226180

    Does the new system allow people to let their PPR for 90 days without planning permission?

    Quite a few people in Killarney (an RPZ) let out their primary residence for 90 days during summer and stay with family etc. It's a nice earner for those who do so and provides additional tourist beds (especially now when there are shortages due to some hotels being temporarily closed). Removing people's ability to do so does not add any additional properties to the long term rental market.



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #23422
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 4,110 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Drop in interest rates will just fuel the prices further..Risk of a crash getting slim



  • Options
    #23423
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122228968#Comment_122228968

    That comes under the heading of a sensible approach. Utility value of the home is maximised



  • Options
    #23424
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I suspect tracker mortgages will be the only beneficiary of this cut, would need to see a trend for others to benefit

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122229017#Comment_122229017

    Also 100% mortgages brought the crash closer last time. The more fuel you throw on something, the risk increases substantially



  • Options
    #23425
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 4,110 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122230484#Comment_122230484

    Been a long wait and watch person

    1. 2019 - Market overheated already/asset value increasing/interest rates at peak low. We are in a bubble !
    2. 2020 - COVID hits - Things will crash for sure now. Economies doomed. Money printing will fuel inflation. People will lose jobs.
    3. 2021 - COVID variants strike. Money printing continues. System flooding with liquidity !
    4. 2022 - Inflation starts picking up, slowdown in tech, layoffs starting slowly and steadily, interest rate hikes are here !
    5. 2023 - Russia/Ukraine war, inflation peaks further, interest rates at peak, tech layoffs accelerate. The housing bubble should have burst here. But No !
    6. 2024 - Inflation under control, rates will start to dop, job market still slow, liquidity Colling off.

    The most baffling thing is house prices have kept increasing against all this events across the globe. I blame the over increasing population, higher affordability. Throw in lack of builds during COVID. Ireland is a mix of all this plus no supply and booming immigration !



  • Options
    #23426
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122230635#Comment_122230635

    I understand that, my predictions for 2024 are amongst the most bullish in the predictions thread and I tried to convince 3 colleagues that had been evicted to buy 9 months ago as my local market is still affordable.

    The big issue is rents and the average mortgage drawdown v the average new build price. Both are well beyond what most can afford and those with power believe that to incentivise new supply they need to continually increase. The eventual outcome is obvious



  • Options
    #23427
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Looks like a big turnout in the elections today. Outcome will be interesting, some seriously dodgy characters on the list



  • Options
    #23428
    PeadarCo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,936 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122230635#Comment_122230635

    Why is it baffling house prices have increased? We've been through a period of relatively high inflation so you expect house prices to rise in line with prices in rest of the economy. Nominal house prices should rise in line with prices in the rest of the economy all things being equal.

    When looking at house prices year on year over the period you mention you need to compare real/inflation adjusted house prices year on year to check if real house prices have risen.



  • Options
    #23429
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 4,110 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122231232#Comment_122231232

    In a normal world house prices dont rise with rising interest rates as people cannot afford and demand decreases😉😉



  • Options
    #23430
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,524 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122231389#Comment_122231389

    But people can afford them, are you seeing a lot of houses going unsold?



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #23431
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users Posts: 5,169 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122230635#Comment_122230635

    You're overestimating tech layoffs. Remember that tech went on a massive hiring spree the year previous when stocks spiked and they had a load of extra cash.

    Unemployment in Ireland is near historic lows.



Advertisement