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European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    Local, European elections are no pointer towards a general election results. Just look at the locals in 2019 compared with the GE of 2020.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,164 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Lynn Boylan up against it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Maybe not but it's the best indicator of where people are at. Waiting to call a GE until the last minute next Spring brings risks with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,194 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    100%, but I've seen some people suggest there is no guarantee SF can repeat the same feat twice. One big factor is that Mary Lou was seen to have had a great GE campaign in 2020.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    And could well explain the differences between May 2019 and Feb 2020



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Yeah. Not sure she will be able to carry another GE campaign in the same way she did in 2020. A lot of people are a bit tired of the Mary Lou rhetoric now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭combat14




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,194 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Another element is that Micheál Martin and Simon Harris seem surprisingly popular. The FF and FG vote in these elections appears to have held up (as has the Greens) with no signs of a big anti-Govt backlash….presumably not a huge amount will have changed by the time of the GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,492 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    No one is going to have a warehouse full of scanners available for hire, possibly on short notice, that can meet the required spec for paper size handling and quality - so if we want to do this, we'll need to buy them and pay for them. We'll also need staff to bundle the papers, feed them in, take them out, control the bundles to make sure nothing is counted twice.

    We'll also need the option of reverting to a paper count in case of dispute, so the manual count staff may well still be required.

    So a huge investment, adding significant risk to the process, to possibly save a few quid on payroll?
    It's not a brilliant business case, is it?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,209 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Some really shocking SF tallies from long time heartland areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,722 ✭✭✭golfball37




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,492 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    You would also destroy the security provided by the anonymous, secret ballot and enable vote selling and duress voting.

    How would this help?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    It doesn't its just more of the "paper ballots are slow therefore bad" logic. Anyone pushing that logic doesn't understand that security, visibility and confidence are far more important in a voting system than speed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,446 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Why do Labour still get such a bad rap after 2011?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The number of scanners would not be one per constituency, but a number for each count centre. If they choose to hire, I would think the USA might have some available as they only use them once every four years.

    The stock paper/card would need specifying, but that would be well before use.

    Handling the ballots would be much the same as now. They would be easier to handle if they were card. The mail is scanned by An Post with little problems, so ballots can be handled safely enough and the scanning could be accurate.

    Any doubtful scans would be passed to a screen for a human verification. The verification would include checking the vote is valid in that the numbering starts at 1 and sequences up to the highest preference.

    The ballots per box would be available for checking against the original - one against one - in the case of a dispute. This check is to match the paper vote against the record of that vote. To facilitate this, each ballot could carry an identifier (not related to the voter).

    A random number of boxes would be checked anyway. Errors found might result in a total paper count.

    So, renting the scanners should be possible, and they might be cheap by the time we get round to needing them. The procedure to do it must already be in use around the world - or else how do they manage. Once we have the ballot transferred to a file accurately, the computer can do the rest. The theatre could be retained by only announcing the stage results after each count delayed sufficiently to allow excitement to build.

    It could actually use fractions of a vote for greater accuracy to identify the winners.

    I think that counting votes by electronic means would cut down on errors, costs, and speed of results. All positive aspects. Owning scanners would be investing in wasting assets - not a good idea.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,446 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    What errors are being addressed? Are there errors now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,066 ✭✭✭Christy42


    And you just open the far right talking points saying the machines are biased and waste time on those court cases. See the US.

    I don't think there is currently an issue with errors. I would need a cost assessment to share with is indeed cheaper given they have to be transported over etc. So you are left with speed as a benefit and most people simply don't care that the count takes a little longer, it just isn't a real negative.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I would be surprised if there were not. Otherwise all recounts would not result in a change of figures.

    Other errors arise from the procedure used to treat surpluses, particularly at later parts of the count. The current procedure relies on the randomising of the votes by thorough mixing, while the computer would use fractions of a vote. The current procedure only uses single votes, while each vote should be assigned in fractions, as done in the Senate elections.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,857 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Left-leaning voters demand higher standards of their reps and have a lot more options than those in the centre or on the right. Betrayals like this are still remembered (even when the details of austerity measures are generally fading from memory) and brought up by other left parties



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The voting is with pencil and paper.

    It is only the count that is done by using a computer program to use the data scanned from the ballots.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    SO I wonder how the bold Niall Boylan will do / is doing?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    By all accounts he was looking well earlier and on to be in the race for a seat with his 1st preferences, however it seems he's getting very few transfers so will not go the distance once they start moving down the preferences.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,616 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Seeing on twitter that Sinn Fein have rated lower in 5 local electoral areas than 2019!

    Total disaster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Sort of an expected type of thing these days with the geopolitical state of play. One would hope after HSE hack lessons were learned and people looking after such things are more clued in

    A CYBER ATTACK attempted to take down a number of government websites overnight, The Journal understands. 

    Four different groups have been identified by the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) as having carried out what has been described by sources as a “simple” attack whereby government websites are continually reloaded until they crash. 



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,616 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Sinn Fein full tally for Dublin is 11% , up 1% from 2019.

    Fine Gael up 4%.

    Very embarrassing for Mary Lou.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,616 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Labour down 1% in Dublin full tally. Very bad day for Labour again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    Give us the full picture not them ole half stories .Where is the DJ



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,470 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    MLMcD hasn’t a clue:


    Sinn Féin difficulties  


    Sinn Féin Dublin hopeful Dáithi Doolan admitted this is a “very difficult” election for the party.
    Mr Doolan is set to hold his own seat as a Councillor but party leader Mary Lou McDonald is being criticised for running too many candidates which have split the vote in many areas.
    “I’m delighted in our own area that our vote is absolutely held up at a time that is very difficult election for us, nobody can doubt that,” he said.
    He said he topped the poll and “held the vote” in “core areas”. Mr Doolan said people were “really, really angry and upset” on the doors while out canvassing.
    The focus for the party now is to get Lynn Boylan elected in Dublin and to win a seat in Midlands North West and Ireland South, he said.
    While he did not concede, he said Ms Boylan getting her Dublin seat is “absolutely” the party’s priority.
    Mr Doolan said it was a “big blow” to the party when she lost the seat in 2019.
    “We are very confident we’ll be taking three seats in total for the MEPs. Am I in with a shout? I hope so, but for me, it was working as a team with Lynn to make sure we ran the best campaign possible to take the two seats and it looks like she’ll be up there in taking a seat.
    “If I can join her, I’ll be delighted.”

    She got hammered last time for running too few candidates, & now the opposite.

    I’d say her days are ( rightly ) numbered.

    EDIT: I took the above from the Irish Independent site.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    LOL so they swung too hard the other way after not running enough candidates in 2020



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,470 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Not forgetting Rabbitte’s admission on TV that ‘sure politicians lie to get into power’.

    That quote will never be forgotten.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,209 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    When the votes from Palestine are added in, it will deliver a big swing in seats during the count.

    SF worked that paddock hard, much harder than old stomping grounds in Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭Polar101


    SF had 2 candidates in each of the three constituencies, it doesn't seem excessive. Would they have done better if they ran 1 or 3 instead? I doubt it. Seems obvious that when there's 2 candidates one of them will get more votes. :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,470 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Also this, which I find hard to believe:

    Midlands-North West: European tally

    In percentage terms the top ten candidates in the European Parliament election in County Monaghan according to a tally of votes from all but four of 118 boxes are as follows: 1.   Michelle Gildernew (SF)  26.17%2.   Nina Carberry (FG) 18.97%3.   Peadar Tóibín  (Aontú) 7.23%4.   Barry Cowen (FF) 6.92%5.   Niall Blayney (FF) 5.91%6.   Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan (IND) 5.04%7.   Maria Walsh (FG)  5.02%8.   Lisa Chambers (FF) 3.80%9.   Ciaran Mulloly (Independent Ireland) 3.13%10  Hermann Kelly (Irish Freedom) 2.58% 

    Michael Fisher



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,279 ✭✭✭techdiver


    So loss of votes by Sinn Fein is to do with what? I'm assuming their position on immigration? But then what sense is it to vote for the established parties instead who are actually implementing the disastrous policies?

    Or are the Sinn Fein votes going to fringe candidates instead and FF/FG are just getting the usual party loyalty vote?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,492 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Go back and read the report from the Commission on Electronic Voting to educate yourself on the dangers here. When the system was trialled, people weren't informed that votes were being counted on a MX Access database. Seriously.

    With computer voting, how do you know that the vote you entered is the vote that is counted?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    As well as Boylan one wonders how Wallace and Daly are doing?

    See a tweet or two earlier saying they are struggling somewhat

    Post edited by aidanodr on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,492 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Using fractional votes isn't an improved process. It's a different process, a different way of counting. We'd want to have very good reasons to change the existing system, not just your vague hunches.

    Honestly, this is just silly, that our democracy would rely on renting a shipload of scanners (probably built in China, with base software written in China), main software from one of the US companies embroiled in controversy over their political alliances, every couple of years, possibly at short notice if a Government falls.

    How are we going to verify the software running on rented scanners? What happens when a US election coincides with an Irish election?

    Moving ballot papers to card would involve huge printing cost, huge transport costs, different ballot boxes.

    For what benefit?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭combat14


    looks like FFG are flying high the independents will never shake them unless they rapidly band together



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,722 ✭✭✭golfball37




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,066 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Will it matter much? One will get knocked out first and transfer to the others.



  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    So, it looks like Daly and Wallace are back in.

    What a joke



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,585 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Country is a full of people who think that supporting these Russian spies they are giving two fingers to the government.

    Depressing times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,446 ✭✭✭✭dulpit




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,616 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Registered Users Posts: 16 foolhardy




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 293 ✭✭JennyZ


    Why is voting by pencil? Why not pen. This is a genuine question official forms often have to be filled out in pen. Not that I am thinking for one second anyone could rub out answers just curious why pencil not pen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    It will mean they spent more than they needed and they will look foolish for fielding too many candidates vs how many seats they get. Yes they will end up getting the same result as if they ran less but its not a good look and shows they are out of touch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Where are you seeing this about Daly and Wallace? Ive heard nothing about Wallace all day and Daly will be fighting with Brid Smith who is far more transfer favourable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,492 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,446 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    1. If you store election equipment between votes, pencils don't dry out.
    2. Pencil marks don't tend to smudge or smear if you inadvertently rub across your vote, or if you inadvertently get the paper wet.



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