The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

It's hard to dispute that there is some degree of disjuncture between what the voters want on immigration and what they are getting from the government

 An overwhelming majority of voters (79 per cent) say that the Government should do more “to manage the issue of immigration”

But yeah if people are not going to shift their vote to parties proposing drastic changes to immigration policy then we have to accept that other issues are more important to them and that the established parties are by definition representing their voters in a broader sense…

I hear Matt Carthy is well regarded by those lads.

simple statement , no judgement here, but FF / FG supporters would be more likely to be older, therefore with perhaps a mortgage, better established in terms of their jobs, perhaps wealthier, in turn more likely to vote, thus parties such as Sinn Fein could conceivably see a lower turnout of its supporters. General elections have higher turnouts of voters over second order local / EU elections, thus it could be argued SF is likely to have a better turnout of some of,its support when that happens. Of course there are a bunch of other issues which are in play e.g. policy, candidates, strategy etc.

But again this is a national issue. Local government has very little say in it.

Then if you look at those who are proposing drastic changes to immigration policy you see that many have very little else to add and may be somewhat unrealistic in how they play to make these changes.

SF have a problem in that some of their activists and youth branch are big into socialism, Cuban Solidarity, eulogising the hunger strikers, a 32 county socialist republic.

But a lot of their voter base couldn’t give a shïte about that stuff. They are grand with the nationalism, but fundamentally they want more big government and less migrants.

I’ve said it before but SF’s unrelenting social media strategy over the past 15 years suggesting we live in a failed state has come back to bite them.

I have said it multiple times but the Sinn Fein online supporters are now helping every other party in Ireland, they are vile online and a total disgrace the way they attack and abuse people.

Why Sinn fein think it is a good idea to have that sort of individuals running around representing their party across all social media is beyond me. No other party in Ireland would allow it to happen.

Im sure FF/FG etc are loving it because it is costing them nothing and driving votes to them

Within 7 days of the election date if I remember right

Yes, SF have run long with the failed state narrative. They needed a disgruntled electorate to push for a change in whom people elected. Whilst we hear a lot of that narrative, both from SF the more extreme right incl Independent Ireland(Ballygobackwards party) the majority of people don't buy into it.

You can see the effect of running too many candidates in constituencies has had on their vote. 

In my county, Kilkenny, the Callan/Thomastown area there were no independents, Social Democrat or Irish whatever parties and they easily took one of the seats with 2 candidates running.

Piltown area in South Kilkenny, you did have all those other parties along with well established mainstream candidates. 

They ran 2 candidates and neither came anywhere close to where they needed to be on votes because of all the competition. They spilt their own vote on themselves too by running 2. 

Based on the total votes they got in Piltown they may have taken a seat there with one candidate running. I’m no pollster but that seems like a 101 error in an election campaign. 

Also one candidate in Callan would’ve likely topped the poll which would’ve been a better result that getting in last on the 3rd count. 

Which is what Harris is doing & it is paying off.

In my local election area in Laois, we had one SF candidate. They have decent rep at local level advocating for the community.

But canvassing they were talking about immigration, open borders, neutrality. Those were not the issues people in the are concerned about

https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/getting-out-vote-what-influences-voter-turnout

Read this and educate yourself … second order elections generally have lower turnout, but then turnout is a function of a range of factors usefully set out in the two columns. I think it would be clear which side the SF voters fall into. SFs performance is a function of a range of factors some of which are structural problems, others which may be less so at the GE. Personally I think the government will be under pressure to go to the country this year to help capitalise on its good LE performance.

Further embarrassment for Mary Lou tonight and tomorrow when it becomes clear that SF have done badly in the Euro vote.

How can Mary Lou stay around ? Surely the party needs a new leader.