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European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    How would you randomise?

    Would every ballot paper be random?

    Or would they all be the same, with one random order per election?

    If the latter case, expect lots of controversy over the final order, claims that someone got a favour to put a candidate near the top etc.

    Remaining with alphabetical is fine, no candidates are complaining are they? The moment you change the order you need to justify it, and that will open the Pandora's box of candidates arguing (rightly) over why the names were ordered in such a way.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,483 ✭✭✭bren2001


    Yes, there is. There is a mountain of evidence to prove that primacy at the top of the ballot paper helps candidates.

    Hit me with the links then. It was a genuine question.

    When you get a huge piece of paper that is longer than your arm, you are not going to go through all the names.

    Why? I did.

    Post edited by bren2001 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 137 ✭✭Greengrass53


    Great news if you're right. These 2 have been coining it with their support for every fascist crackpot for the last 5 years. They have disgraced themselves and the Irish people. Hopefully revenue can get the vat Wallace robbed off them back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,483 ✭✭✭bren2001


    So next time when we have 40 candidates on the paper, you'd be happy with weeks and weeks of counting?

    Wheres the word "could"? You made a definitive statement.

    On the second point, I literally just asked for the evidence to support the statement. That is evidence that should exist. Studies likely have been done. It was an actual question but you made your statement up on gut feeling and not on evidence. You didn't present it that way.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,896 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    The top candidate for Germany's far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) will be excluded from the party's group at the European Parliament, the party has said. 

    Maximilian Krah agreed to stop campaigning and resigned from the AfD's leadership board in May after saying in a newspaper interview that being a member of the SS, the Nazi's main paramilitary force, did not make someone "automatically a criminal".

    It was already too late by that point for his name to be removed from the electoral ballot. He will still be an MEP.

    He has also been investigated by German prosecutors for allegedly taking payments from Russia and China - allegations he has denied. 

    Responding to AfD's announcement, Krah said on social media the decision sends the party down "the wrong path and sends a devastating signal to our voters".



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,571 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    Imagine being too much of a scumbag for AfD, the mind boggles.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,256 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    Imagine being dumb enough, that even if you believe something like that, you say it out loud during an interview. 😐️



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,295 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    OK sorry for not writing it up more clearly. Some posters just take everything written as literal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭crusd




  • Registered Users Posts: 21,895 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Unfortunately there's no such thing as automated randomisation, so there would always be accusations of bias.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,483 ✭✭✭bren2001


    I think and could be tried.

    How do you measure success?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,411 ✭✭✭corkie


    RTE Tweeting

    A first count is not expected in Ireland South until 6pm at the earliest. It is still expected Seán Kelly will be elected with a surplus of roughly 13,000 votes.

    Predictions that Kelleher Billy and McNamara Michael will also get seats. And from RTE news that Ní Mhurchú Cynthia is still in the runing?

    They keep moving the news of the count it was 4pm earlier.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,529 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Second count in South will take as long as the first due to the transfer analysis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    However the reality is most people have an idea of their preferences before they enter the polling booth, and any impact of ballot ordering is minimal and unlikely to have any impact on the outcomes of an election.

    In a very tight race, absolutely it could affect the outcome. Given we know that it does, and its amplifed the longer the ballot, perhaps we should change it in the interest of fairness?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Mod: @MFPM has been forum banned for a week for ignoring a threadban in this thread

    As I have the ban stick out, I'll remind the rest of ye to keep the discussion civil and on-topic!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Remaining with alphabetical is fine, no candidates are complaining are they? The moment you change the order you need to justify it, and that will open the Pandora's box of candidates arguing (rightly) over why the names were ordered in such a way.

    I remember in 2011, Eamon O'Cuiv had his last name as Cuiv O', rather than O'Cuiv. There were complaints about it at the time. In a tight race he knew being near the top was an advantage.

    He got reelected by the way, one of the few FF to do so.

    If people were interested in a fair system, that doesn't convey advantage to certain candidates over others, they should be open to the idea.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,891 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Not in the loop at all, any updates how our two rabid pro-Putin candidates are doing this time round?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,344 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    you should start a poll about that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,656 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    This is a man who before he got elected as an MEP was best known for waving around a jar of dirty water in the Dáil. He also decided to not put on a pair of trousers for a committee meeting during COVID. Brass neck to be going on about inexperience and the competency of others.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,272 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Still too soon to say really… Daly a long shot for 4th shot in Dublin, would need a lot of transfers.

    Haven't even got a 1st count yet on Wallace, might be more likely to get in, based on polls.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261379415300998

    This link explains it a bit.

    And if you went through and marked all candidates in the euro elections you are in a minority.

    Just because you did, doesn't mean that others did.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,567 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Any chance the 'system malcontents' could open a separate thread on the system and leave this for a discussion on the election itself?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,413 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    No solid news yet on Wallace as it's only tallies being discussed so far , but Dublin is on the 5th count and looking at current status I'd think that Daly would be reasonably confident of getting a decent chunk of the transfers as they work though the eliminations.

    The next 4/5 eliminations are all Far Right loons with the exception of Brendan Ogle who's a far left loon so Boylan will probably get a large chunk of any transfers from that lot pushing him ahead of Cuffe and O'Riordan

    It's hard to see where transfers are coming from for Cuffe and O'Riordan as most of the remaining lower candidates don't look like they'd carry a preference for them.

    Whichever of Daly or Brid Smith get eliminated will likely push the other into very real contention though..



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,529 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The transfers for Cuffe or O Riordain will come from the one that goes out first.

    That'll likely be decided by Gibneys transfers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If you are suggesting O'Cuiv only got elected because of name ordering in the ballot you are deluded



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The higher a candidate's position, the more preferential votes a candidate receives (Geys and Heyndels, 2003, Miller and Krosnick, 1998). However, while it has been proven that ballot list position matters, the mechanisms behind this effect remain unclear. On the one hand, voters may be inclined to vote for higher positioned candidates because they often have the most political experience, the greatest means to invest in their campaign and get the most media coverage. In these cases, voters rationally evaluate candidates and actually vote for the candidate they prefer.

    Paper cites Belgian elections too which have a different system of ordering candidates as opposed to our alphabetical ordering. Alphabetical ordering implies nothing about the experience of candidates and people know this and only fools vote more for top spot because their surname is closer to A.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,483 ✭✭✭bren2001


    Cheers. I found a study from UCD specifically looking at Ireland which puts the advantage at around 1.25% which is significant enough to warrant change (in my opinion).

    And if you went through and marked all candidates in the euro elections you are in a minority.

    You made a pretty global comment. Plenty of people will go through the full list and look at the names.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,413 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    That's fair , it's just that 6 of the next 7 to be eliminated are all far-right and account for 26/27k votes , if the bulk of those fall to Niall Boylan he'll likely take the 3rd seat leaving Lynn Boylan , Cuffe , O'Riordan , Daly and Smith in a real dog fight for the last seat



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,344 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    it came up in a different thread about the concept of retaining ballot papers to study them for patterns.

    one pattern which would be interesting to see is whether people who favour independents are more or less likely to keep voting down the paper.



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