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EU Elections 2024 - Results

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,298 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Boylan needs a substantial preference from the Aontu candidate or else he's out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6


    Yes, these clowns should be put back into their boxes. Wallace might become good developer again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    It's mind-boggling how hard-left people continue to lionise Wallace.

    A tax-defaulting property developer who - to put it kindly - dicked around with his employees' pension contributions. But he's anti-American, so all can be ignored.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭MFPM




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    By "become good developer again" i assume you mean just go back to stealing from his employees pensions?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,670 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Ming is not an independent. He is a member of GUE/NGL (The Left)



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,386 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Very good thread (and the politics forum one also). Thanks for all the analysis.

    I do quite like how (with one oddball exception) posters generally leave their personal preferences or left/right biases behind and just dispassionately analyze the maths of the situation whilst the count is ongoing. Kinda like a ceasefire.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    this ^ & I can't for the life of me understand how anyone could willingly vote for FF… It seems so nuts to me, but plenty of people want what they offer



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Who 'lionise's' him and 'ignores' it? There are plenty of politicians with faults who get elected. Reggie has 60K plus votes under her belt and there are several questions over her own failed business...



  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭StoutPost


    I am aware of that. However in Ireland he runs as an independent.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭Highlighter75


    I eas talking about Barry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6


    Yes, if people vote for Mick, they deserve it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,025 ✭✭✭Patser


    I'd say Lynn Boylon is looking good now, that's a healthy 11K lead over Cuffe in 5th and Aontu are originally a SF splinter, as well as Daly and Smith being left sided and as likely to go to Lynn as much as Cuffe O'Riordain



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,211 ✭✭✭plodder


    Looking tight for Niall Boylan alright. Far cry from the other day, hoping he'd get the third seat rather than slugging it out for the last one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭StoutPost


    I would say Ming is pretty anti NATO, indeed anti anything defense when it comes to what we might catagorise as Western nations. He was very loud against PESCO when it was a thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,019 ✭✭✭Genghis


    You could be right.

    All I meant by 'significant' when posting the above is that anything either of the two Boylans get from those three transfers may not significantly alter their relative position after Considine goes. I did say that expecting Lynn to get 3,500 from Doolan, the extra 4,000 votes could mean she has enough of a gap to stay ahead. Niall has not done as well either from Considine, so they are closer together after count 15 than I thought they would be.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,670 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    But his influence which is what you were talking about is based on him not being an independent.

    So no independents don't have influence. Members of parties like Ming do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,025 ✭✭✭Patser


    Surprised so much Aontu went to Niall Boylan not Lynn.

    Gibeny gone now, so this is the big decider for Cuffe and O'Riordain I'd say



  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭StoutPost


    How many of his voters could tell you what European party he belongs to? He has to first get elected, part of that success is running as an independent here in Ireland.

    What follows then stems from the quality of the candidate in, yes, selecting their grouping, how intelligent and personable they are to forge working relationships both inside and outside their grouping.

    The comments I'm reading are there is no point in electing an independent as an MEP, the statement is not true.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,019 ✭✭✭Genghis


    I'm looking at Considine, around 67% of her votes successfully transferred in count 15, but 20% of them then went to Andrews / Doherty.

    If the same sort of thing were to happen with Gibney, there would be 12,000 transfers, of which 2,400 would go to Andrews / Doherty. Leaving just 9,600 for everyone else. There is not enough in that for Cuffe or AOR to move into a hot seat position, Boylan and Boylan will still be in 3rd and 4th after this.

    I mention this as the elimination of Gibney was the point when I expected one of or maybe both Cuffe / AOR to decisively move up. It trully is down to Smith - Daly. Fascinating stuff.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    You wouldn't be making snide insinuations of illegality to try and divert from your hero Mick's repeated instances of breaking the law whilst running his businesses?

    Intentionally making false VAT declarations; deductions pensions from people's wages and then failing to pay them across to the pension fund. Real hero of the wroking man alright.

    Anyone who describes themselves as a socialist should be ashamed to be seen in the same room as him - never mind being attached to the hip with him like Daly is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,670 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It doesn't matter how many people can tell you.

    You said independents have influence and used Ming as an example. Even if non of his voters know he is with The Left it has a direct and important impact on his influence.

    So he is not an independent and it doesn't matter a damn if his voters know that or not in regards to his influence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,025 ✭✭✭Patser


    Absolutely - a smart, astute Independent willing to establish relationships within the Parliament can have an impact. Flanagan has shown that, and you'd feel Ciaran Mullooly could too.

    The issue is more with the cohort of Independents that just want to go and shout, with no coherent plan and no interest in engaging. Daly and Wallace have shown all they want is their soundbites when handed a mic, you'd feel Niall Boylan would be the same



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Aontú voters sending more transfers to both Andrews and to Doherty than they sent to Lynn Boylan is not what I was expecting to see.

    Gibney will give both Cuffe and AoR a bump, but expect Smith's transfers to lift Daly above both of them. Then whichever of Cuffe/AoR is behind will be eliminated and will push the other back ahead of Daly. The question will be will it also lift them ahead of one or both of the Boylans.

    At that point, Daly's transfers will likely decide who gets the 3rd and 4th seats.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,516 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    I would be surprised at this stage if Daly doesn't move ahead of Ó Ríordáin from the combined transfers of Gibney and Smith. I think those who are expecting a big SD transfer to Labour are going to be in for a shock. (or maybe I will)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭MFPM


    1. You didn't answer my question.

    2. I madeno snide accusations.

    3. I have no heros and certainly not MW.

    4. I made no defence of his business dealings.

    I know it might not help your narrative but do try to respond to what I write and not your skewed version of what I write.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,609 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Brid smith next after Gibney..a lot to Daly I would guess...



  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭Eudaimonia


    As I said earlier, N. Boylans transfers will come from Daly. Of her 31,000? odd thousand? I would gues N. Boylan will get around 20-25,000. Himself and Daly court the north side extremist vote and are from the same anti establishment/anti west camp.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,339 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Can’t describe how happy I am Brid Smith isn’t getting in.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,874 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Count 15 didn't take long or did counting not start until 11am this morning?

    Finally the phoney war is over and we're on to Gibney's transfers. It's showtime.



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