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The decline of SF?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,675 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The forecast from the usual suspects was that the Greens would be wiped out and that Sinn Fein would be the largest party.

    I am laughing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭Field east


    I’d say the opposite is the case. SF is currently suffering from ‘consultant fratigue’.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    …in a GE was the forecast blanch.

    We'll see when a GE happens.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,916 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    As an FG (1) and FF(2) voter, if either party goes in with SF I will never vote for them again. I suspect I'm not the only one with that view. And I am one of those who makes sure to always get out and vote.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I would be more inclined to believe the senior and other party members making noises about coalescing with SF, they aren't stupid or un-ambitious and wouldn't make those noises if people such as yourself made up the majority.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,023 ✭✭✭squonk


    Great post. Tge feeling in my neck of the woods when Violet Anne Wynne was elected was that it was just the typical candidate you’d expect from SF. She didn’t have the type of upstanding image that would be the expectation of a public representative. I think some of the issues now are the calibre of their selections last time out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,740 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    If I was Harris I'd go to the the electorate now before any of the far right or SF has a chance to regroup or organise.

    He probably won't do that but as I stated earlier he is now within a shot of being reelected

    Interest rates coming down

    Over the summer no Dail. No opposition carping

    The Harris affec

    SF in disarray

    All set for a November election.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    There was a Green wave last time in Ireland and rest of Europe so it's not a good comparison. They won 12 seats in the Dail in the last GE. It could be a long time before they've 12 TDs again.

    I mean in comparison going back decades they did well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭orangerhyme




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    I think he wants time to make his mark and put his stamp on things.

    Then when the election comes at least people will know what he stands for.

    I think he'll give FG a little boost before next election but really it'll come down to FF and who they form a coalition with.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,916 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I haven't heard any FF or FG senior party members even countenance going in with SF



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,897 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Anyone I know, I have connections into the FF members etc, all have said the same. If they go into a coalition with SF it will be the end of the party.

    So even if a TD in the party thinks it is a good idea they will never get it signed off by the party.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jim O'Callaghan:

    SF: Do you still believe that Sinn Fein has to be held out of government if possible?

    JO’C: No, I don’t hold that view. It’s easy for me to be critical, but I do think, and I did say this in advance, that, by ruling out Fine Gael before the 2020 election and by ruling out Sinn Féin, we boxed ourselves into a very difficult corner. It became apparent after the election that if we didn’t break those commitments, there wouldn’t be a government. So we did break the commitment and we went in with Fine Gael. 

    In terms of Sinn Féin, the people of Ireland will decide who is in government and who not in government.

    SS: Would you share a government with Sinn Féin? 

    JO’C: Well, I would be open to doing it yeah. If they are elected.

    https://thecurrency.news/articles/25200/jim-ocallaghan-prior-to-the-next-election-we-should-not-be-ruling-out-going-into-government-with-anyone/

    Almost 20 Fianna Fáil TDs have said they would not rule out holding coalition talks with Sinn Féin after the next general election.

    It comes after Taoiseach Micheál Martin appeared to soften his stance on the prospect of Fianna Fáil negotiating with Mary Lou McDonald’s party, suggesting it “may evolve depending on policy”.

    While some party members expressed concerns about Sinn Féin’s policies, almost every Fianna Fáil TD who responded to queries from The Irish Times expressed a willingness to sit down with Sinn Féin after the next election.

    Some TDs also said they believed the party made a mistake in not doing this after the 2020 general election.

    https://jimocallaghan.com/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-fein-coalition-after-next-election/



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,675 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Now that it is likely that Sinn Fein will be a much smaller party after the general election, there is an increased chance of a FF/SF/II government, well to the right on immigration. FF will consider it because there will be no rotation of Taoiseach.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,675 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Neither has anyone else. There was one ambiguous isolated quote from MM on one occasion after the general election that could be interpreted as opening the door to coalition with SF, but it was an isolated quote, it was ambiguous and it contradicted everything else he has said before or since.

    Nevertheless, that hasn't prevented a poster or two (or maybe just one) clinging to that quote as "evidence" that FF are prepared to go into coalition with SF. Apart from that, the occasional comment from a backbencher anxious to shore up transfers from good republicans is the only other "evidence".



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,916 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Yes, you can have the one or two TDs (like the links posted above) but they are not going to get past the party. The party line is always not to go in with SF. Meeting or not, ruling it out or not, this is irrelevant as they won't go in anyway

    A funny consequence of the poor showing by SF in the recent election is that , if they actually get into government as a small part of the government, the option of a shot as taoiseach or of getting m/any of their main policies in are zero.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,675 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    They will be upset that MLMD won't be Taoiseach, but what policies do they have that they won't get to implement?

    There isn't a single coherent policy from Sinn Fein on anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nonsense.
    The current Leader is holding that line, but it is demonstratively (I just showed you) wrong to say all of FF think like you, they clearly don't.
    O'Callaghan and the 20+ others are being kept at bay by the current leader.
    FF are by gene pool closer to SF than FG and always were, than some in the party will admit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,897 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Ahh random links to an article while ignoring the other 100 articles which say the opposite is just part of the noise from some around here

    The same poster went around for years with "proof" that FF wanted to go into coalition with SF after the last election, nothing in the article said they would and in fact a party spokesperson said no chance would they ever go in. But it was fired up here 100's of times as proof

    It's all just noise

    FF and FG don't want anything to do with SF, as I pointed out as well neither do any other parties in Ireland(North or South)



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,675 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That poster is also on record as saying that Sinn Fein will never go into coalition as the smaller party, they would have to lead a government. I wonder how long it will take for that position to change.

    My money is on a soft MLMD interview in September saying that being Taoiseach isn't as important as being in government. The tune on here will have changed the previous day to bring them in line with developments.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    If FF won't go into coalition with SF, then SF will never be in power. They'll never get enough votes. The majority of working people won't vote for them.

    I think the tide is turning on the housing crisis so SF will have nothing to complain about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,437 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Exactly. This has always been the case. But the liklehood of FFG remaining Dail buddies and locking the door on SF has elevated even futher now.

    The govt then tees up a give away budget in October, gaining even more support, before an election in mid November.

    I dont really see what SF can do in 5 months to reverse the trend, or more importantly, to convince FF that they are a better governmental partner than FG.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,897 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I couldn't care less what that poster says, if you had the time and looked at all the predictions I would say 1% of them are right and that is just down to pure luck because they have made so many

    It's a similar gang on other threads that claim to be "interested in politics" but then seem to have zero idea about anything, apart from posting the latest from SF propaganda machine.

    MLMD and SF can come out with whatever they want as far as a lot of the population are concerned, people will never vote for them and they will block any attempt of their party to form a coalition with them, FF and FG especially. I expect the green party are similar with the online abuse over the years.

    Only SF would think an online army abusing people online is a good idea



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,550 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Particularly as once the Dáil goes in to recess, you don't get the coverage for anything from opposition, and not much happens on the Government side either.

    July 11th until late September is a write-off for national stuff, locally you aren't going to get much traction on anything and I suspect even SF party meetings will just be arguments rather than productive for a few months. So between now and even a mid November election you really have three months to make an impression.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,018 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Don't think it matters much to be honest what Harris does or doesn't do. The music come the GE will be that FG have had their boots under the table for too long now and change is needed. Can't see the electorate giving them a further term at this stage. Time is up for the moment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    FG will be in power for another term at least.

    Who'd you prefer handling the country's finances Pascal O'Donoghue or Pearse Doherty with his certificate from Dublin institute of technology.

    Eoin O'Brien can't do basic sums but will solve the housing crisis apparently.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,437 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    FFG are now more likley to return a govt that at any point in the last 2 years or so.

    When all is said and done, it will be up to FF who they partner with and FG are their preferred partner.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    Simon Harris said they want to govern for the full term so February/March election more likely, maybe this was a ruse though.

    I can see why he wants more time though so that people know what he stands for. He's only in office 60 days and already has shown himself to be strong and decisive on immigration.

    I hope to god SF don't get into power.

    I think it's much easier for things to get worse than better.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,437 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yep, I can see Harris wanting more time and had predecited he would be more centre right than Leo. So far, this has proven to be the case and he has certainly won back some of the lost FG support, as well as pulling some folks back into the FG fold whom otherwise might have voted far right/independent, on account of immigration policy.

    But FG are on the crest of the wave now & no wave carries forever; so unless Harris has a few other headline grabbing policies up his sleeve, it would seem logicial to go for a Nov election, post give away budget, and whilst SF are still all over the place and directionless.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,023 ✭✭✭squonk


    FF won’t go into government with SF for a lot of reasons but one of the most practical odds that amongst FF and FG supporters there was always a traditional partisan rivalry. In the last 20-30 years however it would have been generally acknowledged that there wasn’t a vast difference been both parties. That’s been brought home by the recent confidence and supply arrangements and coalitions. It’s far to say that FG voters are now used to transferring to FF and vice versa. It’s a win fur both as both know transfers are there.

    Now, look at SF. SF don’t seem to be able to get its own cries it to vote for urself these days and you can’t go from saying FF/FG are the problem today to asking your support base to transfer to FF or FG after a government term.



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