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General Irish politics discussion thread

18182848687111

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Are you referring to the two who had a go at their Green party coalition colleagues, Lisa Chamber and Regina Doherty? It's a competition between the two as to which is, the Liz Truss of Irish politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It will be interesting to see if there is any repercussions in the Greens after losing their two MEPs which now looks likely and a bit of a pasting in the LE's. I know Ryan has talked up their performance but it was pretty dismal.
    Will internal recriminations kick off again and destabilise the coalition?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,473 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The party with the biggest questions to answer is Sinn Fein, of that there is no doubt.

    The Greens have outperformed expectations. Not so long ago, the "experts" on here were predicting zero Green seats after the general election. They look certain to hold three or four, that maybe enough to go back into government, on the back of the improved performances of FF and FG. If you look at the government parties, they had nearly 50% between them, which would be enough to win another term. Furthermore, the influence the Greens have had on this government has been huge, and a lot of that progress can't be reversed.

    For Sinn Fein, it is looking like another five years in the wilderness with a distinct lack of talent in the ranks. Already, the likes of Labour and the SDs appear to have recruited some excellent councillors and are ready to challenge SF more closely.

    Dark days ahead for Sinn Fein unless they can come up with some bright ideas that convince the electorate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The Greens have outperformed expectations.

    Maybe their own expectations. But losing their MEP's and halving their LE vote is a pretty poor performance.
    SF already have faced up to it being a bad day for them and they are not coalition junior partners.

    I'm specifically interested in the Greens internal workings here. As we know internal wrangling was simmering fairly hotly at the outset of the coalition, could it return now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,473 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    They far exceeded your expectations for them - you saw them being wiped out. It was a great performance by your expectations.

    Now you are desperate for some internal disruption to cause trouble for the coalition. Dream on.

    As for Sinn Fein, they have faced up to nothing, all their spokespersons talking about "change" again. Change was the issue of the 2020 election, things have moved on, we have seen Brexit, we have seen Covid, the issue in the next election will be who will you trust to manage the country, "change" as a mantra is dead in the water, but Sinn Fein are still flogging that dead duck. Spinning that they have faced up to it being a bad day for them is foolish at best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    you saw them being wiped out

    In a GE I said they would be decimated like many many junior partners before them I made no prediction about the Green performance in this election. If I did, link to it.

    Plenty of threads discussing SF.
    I asked a question of others here about the Greens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,178 ✭✭✭Bredabe


    This has begged for since I first heard it, I feel I must be missing something but can't see what.

    Local FG cllr signed to revoke the anti-eviction order saying they were doing it as, not signing it would make more not fewer ppl homeless.

    Now we are at an all-time high in homelessness, it seems not to have worked, but I can't see what the logic was in saying it at all is?

    "Have you ever wagged your tail so hard you fell over"?-Brod Higgins.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,915 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The greens are happy to ebb and flow and be in government whenever possible. The greens have no (realistic) plans to be a major party in government, if they're successful, their policies are adopted by others.

    Europe is backing away from green policies at the moment so Ireland is a bit of an outlier there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭Dickie10


    you would imagine SF best tactic over these days is to own the mess of an election and tell their supporters and general public that they wil spend some time navel gazing and rooting through the dbris and come out stronger etc etc. instead Boylan got peevish and kept repeating that they had got more seats than last time. they look and sound for all intents and purposes like an aged sportsperson thats haggered and worn out, same faces , same aul passive agrression at being called out. they sund tired, id say pearse and mary lou will get hard to resurrect themselves for GE. MLMD i think will start looking for the exit package after GE. They also seem to be stuck now for a cause to fight against, the watery reposnse to a united ireland by the general public in the south dosent help them either, Brexit done, stormont back and a good chance housing begins to flow more as well now, also FG going in hard on immigration with simon harris is taking that thunder off them even though they werent sure what way their wind was blowing on that. Next government FG/FF/GR/INds , i predict a mid october election maybe 3rd friday. it gives 3 weeks of usually decent weather in early to mid october and still bright til 7-7:30pm. any later then id leave til mid march



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You obviously missed the bit where she said it wasn’t the day SF would have wanted and a review will be held. If yoy are just going to cherrypick what suits you it is pointless listening to anyone.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,617 ✭✭✭yagan


    How is the greens losing seat defying expectations?

    If their expectation is self destruction they could very well do a 2011 again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It wasn't a great election for the Greens but it was never likely to be given their status as the minor party in government. If we look at some examples from the past:

    • Greens in the 2009 locals: Went from 15 seats → 3 (FPV 3.9% → 2.3%)
    • Labour in the 2014 locals: Went from 132 seats → 51 (FPV 14.7% → 7.1%)

    Greens in this election went from 49 seats → 23 (FPV 5.7% → 3.6%)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,617 ✭✭✭yagan




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 429 ✭✭Madeoface


    I see one of the bottom feeders on the right said 'the revolution has begun'.

    With 4 out of 949 seats?

    Only issue here is that SF will have to pivot right to reabsorb the gonks that voted these people in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,617 ✭✭✭yagan


    I don't see it playing out that way.

    I think it's FG who's been leading to the charge to meet the far rights demands with border checks and repeated tent removals etc… McEntee is as vacuous and craven to play up security for votes as an English Tory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Much as their haters would love it to happen I can't see the Greens being wiped out again. Their base of support is higher now than it was back in 2011. They'll lose all of the floating vote that they picked up in 2020 and it will lead to the loss of most of their seats but they'll still be strong in their South Dublin heartland.

    In particular Dublin-Rathdown is increasing from a 3 seater to a 4-seater so Catherin Martin will be nailed on to retain her seat.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Which ultimately, you'd like to hope, is what'll head off any further rise of the Far Right: centrist parties will naturally twist towards stricter migration policies, as they would any other topic floating in the political zeitgeist; even if it's utterly performative it has potential to satisfy the casually antagonistic voters out there, those happy to keep giving the mainstream parties their vote, as long as they're seen to do "something" about the issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Has to be a massive slap in the face, I'm sure they can explain away their decimation in the LE's with some of their 'we know best' haughtiness but losing their MEPs is a disaster.
    A tetchy exchange between a Green and a FFer (I think) on Claire Byrne this morning doesn't augur well.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The change in Government in the UK means that the nonsense that is the Rwanda policy will go away, which will see the flow of migrants coming in via NI dramatically reduce. So the need for the more aggressive approach around Tent clearing etc. will decline substantially so the "lurch to the right" as some have described it will not really be needed all that much.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,617 ✭✭✭yagan


    I have a feeling that the mood in Fianna Fail is election as soon as possible to try to catch SF votes so a scrap with a wounded coalition partner would be an easier pretext than a spat with FG. They'll be saving their real venom for FG



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Ivan Yates discussed the possibility of the Greens being tossed aside pre GE. Surely if FF+FG did so and got enough for a coalition between the two of them it'd make their lives far easier. Very difficult to govern in the interests of their members and usual voters with the Greens involved.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I'd say that's the mood all round tbh.

    Like you say, using the Greens as the excuse to go early would suit both FF and FG.

    Having to set out their stall to fight multiple by-elections only to then have to try to freshen it up again a few months later makes no sense.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I would think the by-elections should be held very soon, or not at all - just go for the GE in late October.

    Having the by-elections early, keeps options open for Simon Harris. He has said he will go full term

    He could still go for October, but keep late Feb/early March possible. Of course, St Patrick's day does cramp his options a bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,617 ✭✭✭yagan


    They'd still have to face each other eventually.

    I reckon it'll will be a cracker of an election because the narrative they've taken from the local elections is that SF is now the third party, which makes no sense considering SF bad local election 2019 followed by knocking fg into third place in the 2020 ge.

    FGGs greatest challenge going into the next election is convincing the greater turnout that they are two distinct offerings.

    If they both use "keep SF out" then that only benefits SF, so the uneasy truce since 2016 between the old duopoly may get ripped up as a matter of long term survival



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't really understand what this would mean in context. The three government parties are not going to campaign together and are not going to have any kind of pact going into the election.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They are though going to have to say what their intentions are if there is no overall majority. That’s were potential frictions between parties and within parties may come to the fore.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    No they won't. They will just pivot to saying something like "we intend to build a majority after this election".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think you are wrong tbh.

    In interviews and debates they’ll be pressed on it. It’s new territory really and fascinating to see how they each approach it.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't doubt they'll be asked. Such questions are asked before every single election. They categorically do not "have to say" what their intentions are and it would really be relatively easy to avoid answering the question - it helps of course that it's a stupid question that presupposes knowledge that no one can have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Come on now, we are in very uncharted waters here.

    We will see.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Come on now, we are in very uncharted waters here.

    All the more reason not to have a clue what you will do after the election!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,473 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I agree with you on that. What is more, when you make permanent changes like BusConnects, Metrolink, Dart plus, Cycling Infrastructure, then you don't need to be in government all the time. Make your policy changes, take the flak and come back after the following election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,473 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Boylan was denying reality even more than some of the supporters on here.

    This election was a disaster for Sinn Fein, full stop, end of story. People no longer believe in MLMD when she says "change". "Change to what?" is the question that people are asking, and no more than the followers on here, MLMD hasn't got a clue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Some people are 'asking'.
    Some people think they had a disaster, others see it as a bad day with mixed results. Very possibly they will increase their MEPS to 2 and maybe even 3.

    Your Greens have lost ALL of their MEPS and had their LE vote cut in half. If there is a queue of leaders to be 'asked' questions, Ryan as a government minister and a leader of a coalition party is at the front of the queue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,473 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The posters on here who were posting nonsense a few weeks ago that the Greens would be wiped out are not trying to back down and back away from their previous comments by saying that the election performance raises questions about Eamon Ryan. Would you get out of here!!!

    Party outperforms your expectations = Questions to be asked about the leader.

    Party performs way way below your trumpeting of them = No questions about the leader.

    There is no better way to make a fool of yourself than the way that the SF supporters are behaving on here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Post where anyone said the Greens would be wiped out in these elections?

    I am asking you to back up this insinuation/allegation. You have implied it several times on these forums.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Well this thread is back to it's old self again. Blanch and Francie sniping at each other!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Ming's got lofty ambitions it seems



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Interesting one. Could do very well. As he says though it would depend who else went forward.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Not for President.

    I have no particular issue with Flanagan as a TD/MEP , but he wouldn't be within a mile of getting elected President.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Any particular reason for that Quin Dub.
    He has been consistently electable for quite some time.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Like I say , no issues for me personally , but I just don't think the majority of people would view him as "Presidential".

    It's a ceremonial position requiring a certain degree of gravitas and statesmanship - Neither are qualities instantly recognisable in Luke "Ming " Flanagan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,473 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Just thinking of the Zoom call with his pants down, how would that go down internationally for a President?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,227 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well when you see how the present incumbent divides people I think Luke could capture a sizeable vote and the zeitgeist as it might be.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    As Ming himself says - It all depends on who else is running but I still don't see him winning that race.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    When I think of Ming's character I remember that time he got caught sniggering along with Shane Ross when Mick Wallace called Mary Mitchell O'Connor "Miss Piggy". The other two apologised to her afterwards but Flanagan outright refused to on the basis that he wasn't the one who had said the words.

    Anyone who's seen children bullying others though knows it's the friends who laugh at the cutting remark that are often just as hurtful to the person on the receiving end.

    I watched the MNW debate a few weeks back and I thought he was the most impressive performer in the first half. However in the second half he kept needlessly interrupting everyone else.

    I dunno if those two things are related or what but I just dislike the man.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Independent Ireland, whilst it's rural based, would be quite right wing, esp the views of the leader Michael Collins;

    https://www.hotpress.com/opinion/independent-ireland-party-leader-michael-collins-23018312



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,820 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Quite a mish-mash. Borders on a pick-n-mix of prejudices rather than any real political philosophy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Agreed

    Think he has been diagnosed with adhd in his adult life and it's probably part of his personality



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭Polar101


    It sounded more like what a random person at a pub might say, rather than political agenda. I guess they'll get votes when one or two of their points resonates with the voter.



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