European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

In the past, FF voters were legendary for loyally voting the party line - 1,2,3 - but that has changed and this is a clear example.

Blaney had 34K. votes but only 15K. transferred to the other two FF candidates. Over 30K of these voters gave Blaney their No. 1 so very few were "borrowed" from other parties. The 20% of Blaney's votes that were non-transferable are the least loyal of all i.e. no chance they might pass ultimately to a surviving FF candidate.

It would be shocking if Gildernew doesn't get the majority of McManus's 36K. although 7K of those are "borrowed".

FF should have a serious post-mortem on the MNW candidate selection. FG are likely to take 2 seats with slightly fewer first preferences.

Blaney generated votes for himself in Donegal but did damage to the party's campaign. Didn't fall far from the tree. A proper tally would tell that (regional) tale.

Let's say a hard right wing candidate is elected and a hard left wing is the "first loser" - the sub nominated by the winner (even though they have no democratic mandate) is surely more likely to represent the views of his voters than the first loser. As such, it's not a bad system

Government parties seem to be transferring fairly strongly amongst themselves. Blaney's transferable vote went 77% to FF and FG. Green party transfers went 50% in MNW and 43% in Dublin.

The substitute lists are published though. And while they may not be obviously visible anywhere, I think it's fair to assume that if the winner was from a specific party, then the alternates for that party would be similarly viewed by the electorate.

In my mind it's not a bad system. A by-election can skew numbers too (e.g. If the last elected candidate was to step down and there was a by-election then it's likely that the biggest party would get a bonus seat until next election), and having the first loser getting a seat isn't great either.

Surplus won’t be big enough to affect things the way you describe. Next elimination distribution is the ball game

I was chatting to someone who did vote supervision before and they'd often see a single tic on a ballot form rather than numbers of preference. They get English people who are registered to vote but who despite verbal and written explanations on the day still can not internalise the concept of a transferable vote. They're still thinking in binary first past the past.

Edit to add, they'd have to be EU citizens to vote, but I wonder if it's reflective of Irish citizens who spent most of their lives voting in the UK system.

Ah, I think it's the nature of the beast. Constituencies are so big, you have to either have a very well established politician (or sitting MEP) in the running who's left or leaving the Dáil or somebody with nation-wide name recognition.

Reminds me of the FUD going around the UK when they had a referendum on PR in 2010 which claimed that it would give people more than one vote.

It got massive traction.

So, it is 50/50 % of chances for Wallace whether he stays in his soft cozy chair or whether he'll get kicked out of it. Morelikely, he gets back in. Unfortunately this is near to inevitable now.

Might come down to that 6 or 7% difference though. It will be interesting to see what happens in Donegal. In a former life I knew the Blaney's, Harte's and McGlinchey's, it is some political hotbed of jealousies and bitterness among the FF/FG family dynasties up there.

Still seething of the SF collapse I see?