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Nuclear Energy for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You are assuming you would build one NPP in Ireland with a couple of reactors, and that's it, because that's what our energy needs are now, hence the Slovenia Croatia example, but a central point of the nuclear in Ireland argument, for me anyway, is that it would be for our future energy needs decades out, because the current gen reactors have a 60 year design life.

    If you assume the best current option as being the KHNP APR-1400 reactor (~1.4 GW) then we could do with ten of them, not just one or two.

    That's the ESB estimates of our electrical energy requirements to decarbonise the grid, transport, heating and industry using electricity, to fulfill our net zero by 2050 obligations.

    With nuclear energy you can get by with far less of the hydrogen aspect and the cost would be substantially less than trying to achive the required result using wind and solar. Even excluding the cost of the energy storage mechanism needed to make intermittent renewables behave like base load/dispatchables, it's vastly cheaper than either wind or solar based on the amount of energy produced.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    More than likely nobody will achieve those emissions targets, but that does not mean that we would avoid paying billions on top of countless billions wasted trying to for electricity generation. The E.U. and especially greens are big on carbon taxes as we have seen to date.

    I don`t see where you should have a difficulty seeing a role for nuclear here. Finland has the same population as Ireland and generates 42% of its electricity from nuclear and is now self sufficient since their latest reactor went on line.

    Huntstown is a gas fired plant. That is not going to help with reducing emissions or attain net zero by 2050. In fact with the gaping hole in this offshore 2050 plan it would only be a drop in the ocean generation wise.

    If it`s the cost of nuclear you are worried about, the latest Finnish plant even being late and over budget still cost €11 billion and would provide over 30% of our present requirements. The 2050 offshore proposal will cost in excess of €200 billion and the state, as in we the citizens are caught on the hook for that with guaranteed state contracts where not only will consummers pay for what they use, they will also pay for whatever these companies generate even if we do not use or need it. They will also effectively pay on the double for any hydrogen generated electricity.

    We may indeed have gas off the west coast, and oil and gas off the south coast, but similar to uranium greens are determined to ensure we never find out, but at least for uranium we do have strong indications that we do have deposits and pretty wide ranging ones at that.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Since 2006 the price of a solar panel has fallen 40% every time global production has doubled. And as the price falls demand goes up again.

    The industry roadmap expects this to continue as improvements like replacing aluminium frames with steel, using stronger thinner glass, reducing silver by overlapping cells and using thinner cells. Doubling the voltage tolerance of inverters essentially halves the cost as they are current limited. Rolling out dual layer cells is another way to increase generation by 40%. And there's other technologies like thin film which because they are thin require a lot less material, or dye based that should be way cheaper. Though Perovskite is far from being durable enough yet IMHO.

    There is nothing like this on the horizon in the nuclear industry only the insistence that there will be some sort of learning curve despite the evidence against it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You can't see the wood for the trees. The Olkiluoto-3 nuclear reactor in Finland was expensive, at 3 times it's original cost estimate, coming in at €11 billion for 1.65 GW, but it's still about a quarter the cost of utility scale solar in Ireland on the basis of energy actually produced.

    Solar panels made using Uighur slave labour may get cheaper, but it won't be by as much as the already large price differential, and Korean built reactors are only about 62% the cost of OL3.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In addition to the direct cost there's also the indirect costs caused by 14 years of no power from OL3. The start of a much-delayed nuclear plant in Finland has helped bring down electricity prices by more than 75 per cent in the Nordic country.

    Oddly enough earlier because of flooding Finland wasn't holding back on hydro-generation. So electricity prices went negative because of slow moving nuclear dinosaurs that couldn't load balance.

    Output from OL3 over the last month. It's a bit up and down. Before that it was totally down down due to a turbine malfunction and that after weeks of being offline because of delays completing annual maintenance.

    Also Olkiluoto 1 is still offline, it should have been back in May. And it's making electricity more expensive.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭Shoog




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Speaking of reliability:

    That's today.

    8 days ago…

    20th May, and so on, and so on.

    Wind and solar are reliably unreliable.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "Wind and solar are reliably unreliable" Yes, that's the whole point.

    Thanks to weather forecasts we can reliably predict how much dispatchable will be needed in the coming week. System margins published here twice a week.

    Nuclear is unreliably unreliable in that you can't always predict when it will have an unplanned outage or how long any outage might be extended.



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40285484.html

    Gas plants are so unreliably unreliable. We should totally get rid of them all 🙄 Such a large generator being offline for a year really proved how we can't depend on gas.

    Edit: you get the point. There is a big difference between expected maintenance, unexpected maintenance and your generators simply being unable to generate even though they're in full working order.

    I do understand why you're attacking nuclear generators as if no other generators go offline. I also think I understand why you're trying to compare a forecast of whether or not there'll be wind ( a regular occurrence) to maintenance (a comparatively irregular occurrence) as if they're equivalent. It's a bit weird though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Nuclear power plants go down for unscheduled maintainance which can take years to resolve. If the bulk of your power comes from nuclear then this can be a very big deal as France found out a few years ago.

    So depending on a power generator which can have systemic fault issues which takes out multiple plants and a large proportion of generating capacity for extended periods is a very big deal.

    This would be the exact vulnerability that Ireland would face because it would be dependant of a few large nuclear power plants which would displace investment in just about everything else.

    Its deeply unstable scenario which is very difficult to plan for.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It's not that no other generators go offline it's the extra risks involved with nuclear.

    Our gird's redundancy is based on being able to handle the loss of the biggest single generator. Generation III reactors are from 3 to 4 times that size. So we'd need massive improvements to the grid. The sort of improvements that make renewables look more attractive.

    Time is another factor "Construction of the €400m Whitegate Power Station began in 2008 with commercial electricity forming part of Ireland's grid network by 2010." So even if the plant was totalled it might just be possible to replace it in two years. Long term outages at nuclear aren't that rare.

    Fleets of reactors can go offline. In Korea it was fake parts. In Japan the 2011 disaster exposed a lot of faults in the industry. In other countries it was politics. In the UK and France it was EDF not realising just how much maintenance was needed for graphite and corrosion respectively. Climate change and new eco friendly laws have reduced cooling water across multiple countries in summer. I haven't heard of similar problems affecting whole fleets of renewables in a similar way.

    Nuclear plants can have multiple outages for different reasons. In Japan the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant was shutdown in 2002 over falsifying safety inspections. In 2007 there was an earthquake. Only three of the seven units had restarted by 2011. Maybe if TEPCO didn't cut corners there'd be more trust in the nuclear industry in Japan. But they did and Fukushima Daiichi got flooded because they lowered the site. More recently they failed to do mandatory anti-terrorism stuff and lost a copy of the plans. If you dig deeper you'll find similar stories from other nuclear operators at times when the industry needs good PR.

    Loose public confidence here and it's referendum time and game over.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,115 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    the long term attitude should be to be open to it "if the price is right" Ireland doesnt need to be an early adopter , if something is obviously good some country/technology will make it a no brainer

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    LOL nuclear energy for Ireland.

    I'm sure if we start now we might get a reactor up and running in about 30 years…

    …just in time for it to melt down and make Chernobyl look like a walk in the park.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    If you were looking to have a house built, would you be going for a builder who took 30 years on their last project or someone who took an average of 14 months on their last six houses?

    If you dislike nuclear - the Chernobyl reference was a bit of a give away - sure you can find the worst possible example of how not to do it and tell everyone that all houses take 30 years to build, so don't bother looking any further at the topic of getting a house built, rent instead, but that's not a valid or rational approach to a topic.

    Yes, NPPs take longer to build than any other enrgy source, but they are currently being built to last 60 years, which is also longer than anything else other than hydro.

    Last year, France generated enough zero-carbon energy to meet 100% of their consumption, even though several reactors were still offline for repairs. But Chernobyl…

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yeah, and so can gas-fired turbines, which happened here in 2006:

    Nov 3, 2006

    One of
    the largest ESB power stations in the Republic is not supplying any power to the national grid due to extensive maintenance work…

    The thermal power station at Poolbeg in Dublin - where staff costs run at €103,000 a head - consists of three aging individual units producing 490 megawatts of power in total. Two of these will not be available to generate power again until mid-December, according to the ESB, while the largest of these units will not be supplying power for several months at least. The units date from the 1970s.

    Offshore wind is inherently unreliable. The operating conditions are so harsh and corrosive that an Offshore wind farm costs an additional 26-30% of it's initial capital cost to be spent on operations and maintainance.

    Nuclear has a very high availability rate over time, this is a fact. The much publicised maintainance in France in 2022/3 occured after an average of 36 years of operation for the reactors involved.

    It's disingenuous to cite maintainance of reactors nearing the end of their service life as if it's an endemic problem that applies to the technology in general.

    And once again, Ireland does not just need one or two reactors, it could easily require more than 10 1.4-1.6 GW units, given the plans to decarbonise transport, heating and industry via electricity. Our projected future electrical energy requirements are prodigious and far beyond current requirements the one or two reactor thinking is based on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Yes, that's the whole point."

    You don't even know what the point is. It has something to do with CO2 emissions.

    Being able to accurately forecast the 72% of the time you need to fire up the gas-turbines doesn't help you reduce national CO2 emissions.

    This weather forecasting thing is utterly bizzare. it is not a magic salve for inadequate capacity factor and plays no part whatsoever in ameliorating the capacity factor inadequacies of renewables.

    Weather forecasts do not reduce CO2 emissions, nuclear power has a greater CO2 reduction effect than any other power source, and it's not even close.

    Annual direct CO2 emissions avoided per 1 GW of installed capacity by technology and displaced fuel (Mt CO2 per GW)

    Effectively all our wind is onshore, meaning nuclear would have double the CO2 reduction effect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    We can't even get a metro up and running. Our Children's hospital is a farce. It took a stupid amount of time to build the LUAS and even then we didn't even have the foresight to connect the two lines.

    We don't do planning well in this country, as our history shows quite clearly.

    And speaking of houses, we can't even get a functioning housing policy together over a matter of DECADES.

    We should keep away from nuclear power for our own safety.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I stopped reading your spamming posts some time ago.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "nuclear power has a greater CO2 reduction effect than any other power source, and it's not even close."

    Nuclear produced 9.11% of global lectricity in 2023

    Hydro 14.29% produces more than one and a half times as much energy as nuclear

    Gas produced 22.47%. Coal would have double the emissions so the saving are more than twice those of nuclear.

    Wind at 7.82% and Solar 5.52% together saved more emissions than nuclear. And long before you could built a nuclear power plant each will produce more than nuclear.

    Changing from incandescent (14% usage) to energy saving bulbs also saved more electricity than nuclear generates

    The UK has had nuclear power for 70 years with no reduction in coal usage until half of the coal was replaced by the early 1990's "dash for gas" and now renewables produce more energy annually in the UK than fossil fuel does.

    Maggie lost all interest in developing UK nuclear when gas could be used to reduce the threat of striking coal miners. So technically politics resulted in more emissions reductions than nuclear ever did.



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    We had a dearth of Solar and Wind during peak hours yesterday so the ESB sent out it's "turn down" notification asking people to use less energy.

    I've gotten a few of the "flex event - we're short on power " notifications over the last year, but never a "flex event, we have an abundance of power" notification :(

    I'm following the progress of various Gen IV reactors with interest as they can provide lower capacities at more economical prices - especially when doing levelised full cost ( full report linked here https://advisoranalyst.com/2023/05/11/bofa-the-nuclear-necessity.html/ )



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,115 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    I didnt think of wind power yesterday, but remember sticking my head out and saying to my wife "reminds me of one of those days where you go out sailing and just bob around in the harbour" ;-) I bet it wasnt a good day for renewables

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    Wind hovered between 400MW and 500MW for most of the day yesterday. They're forecasting a peak of 3.4GW tonight where we benefit least from it due to the slump in demand. Ah well! https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Fun Fact:

    Solar is expected to generate more power in the world than Nuclear by 2026.

    It will overtake coal by 2032.

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/essay/2024/06/20/solar-power-is-going-to-be-huge



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It would be nice if consumers could use benefit from variable prices, but that's a different topic.

    https://www.gen-4.org/gif/

    Established in 2001, the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) was created as a co-operative international endeavour seeking to develop the research necessary to test the feasibility and performance of fourth generation nuclear systems, and to make them available for industrial deployment by 2030.

    AFAIK the only Gen IV reactor of any size is in China. It's a small 210MW demo model but it's bigger than the HTR-10 they built in 1995 based on 1960's German tech they bought in. The use case is for remote areas in China as it's not economical.

    Basically Gen IV reactors are not happening near here anytime soon. So we'd need low emissions generators while we wait.



  • Registered Users Posts: 114 ✭✭Kincora2017


    thanks for posting that. Incredibly interesting. Fingers crossed!



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,753 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Personally I think the best approach for Ireland would be nuclear power as a base supplemented by wind, hydro and tidal sea etc. renewables.

    That said advances in battery storage may eventually become viable for storing excess renewable power for release as and when needed, this could herald a completely green power grid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    210MW is perfect for Ireland - that's well sized to replace the three moneypoint coal generators, or the 2 heavy oil plants, all of which are around the 250MW range :)



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It's a one off demonstration model from a country that's focused on the domestic market and doesn't export. Unless you're Pakistan who is the enemy of their enemy, India. It's not a commercially available power plant. You will still need to provide low emissions power. And have a plan for when it's not ever going to happen.

    Again this isn't being priced to compete with the big power stations, it's for niche applications in remote parts of China where the costs of transporting fossil fuel add up.

    https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en//info/1245/10919.htm - compare the blurb to reality

    The demonstration nuclear power plant
    project (NPP) of High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) at the
    Shidaowan site was connected to the grid for the first time on December
    20, 2021. The project was the First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) NPP of high
    temperature gas-cooled reactor – Pebble bed Module (HTR-PM) in the world

    It's not the first, it's based on the German AVR was constructed in 1960 and connected to the grid in 1967.

    This has been achieved through more than 30-years of continuous research
    by hundreds of Tsinghua scientists,

    The Chinese reactor is based on a design originally developed in
    Germany, and the German company SGL Group is supplying the
    billiard-ball-size graphite spheres that encase thousands of tiny
    “pebbles” of uranium fuel.

    30 years to reinvent the wheel, and they bought in the know how.



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    The article you're quoting from draws a different conclusion to what you drew from it. I'll go with the articles conclusion over yours in this case -

    China is pretty sure that they can get the HTR-PM in the range of the price of their PWR and they will produce heat (higher temperature than PWR) that allows the HTR-PM to be a drop in replacement for coal plants. The HTR-PM would also be able to compete for smaller projects in the 210 to 420 MWe range.

    As I said - this sounds like a potentially a great fit for Ireland. We would likely want to replace 250MW coal with 400+MW nuclear. We do want more power, and we want as much of it as possible to be zero carbon :)



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    For older Gen II plants nuclear got cheaper over time but for the newer Gen III ones nuclear got MORE expensive as production increased. The learning curve is now Negative! Claims that it will get cheaper are optimism over experience.

    Solar has been getting ~40% cheaper each time production has doubled. And once you get planning permission solar can be thrown up in no time.

    Nuclear takes a wee bit longer so it means you need a Plan B to provide power while waiting for it, and a Plan C in case it gets cancelled like 50% of the reactors in the USA that stated construction in the last 47 years. (the deeper you dig the worse nuclear looks) later you may also need a Plan D for when nuclear plants are without warning closed for extended periods or shutdown early.

    On the Irish grid a single Nuclear Plant not being available for an extended period could easily be a major political issue even if the only effect is a large increase in electricity bills.



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