Scottish independence

Opinion polls on independence don't matter at all to Westminster. Unless supporters of independence are going to follow through and vote for the SNP or another pro-independence party in sufficient numbers to see them taking seats and getting into power, Westminster will pay them no attention at all. I mean, seriously, why would they even the tiniest bit about suport for independence that doesnt' translate into votes for independence?

Hard to say. England is by far Scotland's largest trading partner. Much moreso than the EU so anyone pressing for Scottish independence is going to struggle to make what is essentially an argument for Brexit in a world where everyone knows what Brexit looks like.

I've always said that at a high level the push for Scottish independence is no different than the push for Brexit was.

This notion that you can ditch a long standing (centuries in this case) union for the sake of something better.

And ditching this union will be easy and only bring benefits.

The proponents of Scottish independence are no different than the Brexiteers with their aspirational promises.

People previously on this thread have claimed that the SNP have provided detailed documents on how independence will be beneficial, but even skimming through those documents shows that they are nothing but aspirational.

I've tried to point this out as well. Advocates of independence usually counter with Brexit tropes. The economic case just isn't there and that's a huge one, particularly in a post-Brexit age.

Yeah, but the economic case wasn't there for Brexit either; it happened anyway.

And indeed you could make the same point about the independence of Ireland. Or of Norway. Or Slovakia. Or many other places.

Ultimately these things are not often decided by a rational cost-benefit economic analysis; this is a question of identity and belonging. What will determine the question of Scottish independence is the tension between feeling Scottish and feeling British. The more disregard and disdain the Scots experience within the UK, the more likely they are to opt for independence, even if there is an economic cost.

There is also the fact that most times after an election is done in the UK the government and policies Scotland has imposed on them is not what they as a country voted for. Just as they as a country were forced out of the EU against the votes of most Scots. Which of course is the ultimate irony as not being in the EU was one of the key planks that was used in the end when things seemed to be close in the last independence referendum to scare Scotland into voting no. Only for those very same people to turn around and vote Scotland out of the EU a couple of years later against the will of the majority of Scots.

The SNPs record of governance in Scotland is not great. Perhaps if their focus over the years was on that, the bonus of swinging a majority in favour of indy would have automatically coma about. Libby Brooks gives a good feel of what its like on the ground;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/15/scotland-in-microcosm-midlothian-voters-eye-labour-after-months-of-snp-turmoil

The 'experts' on here do not understand how strong the feeling is in Scotland for independence. It is not going away just because the 2014 result is what they want to cling onto

With support for independence bubbling around 49% - 51% and SNP support around 32%, it is clear that a large proportion of pro-independence supporters are going to vote for Labour in the next election. That is a problem for Labour as they cannot continue to refuse an offer of a decision on independence without major problems for the Scottish branch regarding democracy.

Sure. I perfectly understand why Scottish people might vote Labour rather than SNP, and what they might hope would result from doing that.

My point is just that doing so reduces pressure on/incentives for Labour to make any concessions at all to Scottish nationalist feeling, or to support independence. Labour's a unionist party; they don't cease to be a unionist party when pro-independence Scots vote for them. The only way pro-independence Scots people can advance the cause of independence is by not voting for unionist parties. I understand why they might make a choice to vote for a unionist party, but they should be clear that that is the choice they are making, and they should accept the consequences of making that choice.