The decline of FG?

FG have been bouncing around the same support levels for 100 years. A couple of times they went up when FF waned. It's very cyclical.

I think Simon Harris will use the next few months making his mark on immigration.

Housing numbers are slowly improving.

I think he'll call an election at latest possible time cos he wants to make his mark first.

We will benefit as a country from green policies so I don't see why FG need to go climate skeptic.

We could be net zero on electricity production in 20 years whilst selling electricity to UK and Europe.

It's the same topic really.

Will FG still be the largest party after the next general election? …

as the two parties will be direct rivals for largest party how will that impact their relationship?

A bit like the question of which of two teams comes third or fourth in the premier league: a minor point of bragging rights between the two, but they overriding point is that they both qualify for the Champions League.

Similarly FG's laser focus will be on maximising the combined seat total for themselves and FF so the two have the best possible chance of putting together another government.

I agree.

I liked Leo but I think he was a lightning rod for a lot of the criticism of FG. I think he knew that so was one reason he stepped down.

It'll be interesting to see what Simon Harris does in the next few months as he doesn't have a lot of time to make his mark.

I wonder will they try to push through the new licensing laws, the Cork events center, Waterford airport etc...Go for a few easy wins.

The next budget will be interesting.

It's interesting also that it'll probably be Micheal Martin's last election also.

It would be very silly to think SF can't turn around their poor showing, this time. Major heads in both FG and FF would be happy with a continuation of the present Govn't. Greens get the heat on climate issues eg carbon tax. Some lesser yokels, in FG and FF are mouthing off a bit about the Greens, but their voice in unimportant. FF, esp with MM will always go with FG rather than SF. O'Riordan may have a good point in LB, Soc Dems and Greens having some common aims and that grouping becoming the third leg of the next Govn't. The other option this group has is to side up is to side up with SF, PBP etc. in a full left alliance. Don't see that happening.

I don't think the Greens will have enough TDs to take FG + FF into safe numbers.

Don't worry, junior will step into that seat. He might even find a Commission job for McGrath to smooth the path. FF won't be rushing for a border poll. Cowen also gone to Europe, out of the way. They're quite content largely to be part of Govn't. Up to FG to stay ahead or near SF Dail numbers.

Interesting , never thought FF/SF/II was a runner but doesn't sound that crazy. He will have his eye on replacing Michael D I think after the next election.

If I had to bet FF/FG/II seems the obvious call IMO. The FF/SF/II just sounds to messy , not sure FF would be keen and II lean to right wing for SF I think.

A wind-up thread.

Last I checked Fine Gael were the most popular political party in Ireland.

They went from third place in the 2020 general election to first place in the 2024 local and European elections.

If that is decline, some of the other parties would be gagging for it.

The opposition usually has a bump in the locals against a sitting government, especially a long term one, yet SF were barely out of single digit %. FG and by extension the current government were the largest grouping.

There's no decline. And furthermore I can't see any other grouping than FG+FF+Others in the next government.

2020 was the time for this thread, they have bottomed out and are on the rise again, back to first place, back to the vote going up.

If the thread was entitled "the rebirth of FG" or even " the halting of decline in FG", it would be more accurate.

I'd be amazed if Micheal Martin isn't thinking about having 5 years as Taoiseach vs splitting it. If offered one over the other I'd be fairly confident he would take the 5 years. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be in that position but he must be thinking about the potential permutations and numbers.

For FF to have significantly more seats than SF after the general election would take a further seismic shift in the respective votes of both parties, on top of the decline SF has already experienced.

Unless and until general election opinion polls start reflecting the results of the local elections, I doubt Martin will be considering the scenario you envisage as a realistic prospect.

On the face of it, yes its a decline. But you are ignoring the context.

They have been in power since 2011. There are teenagers alive today, who don't know any other government but one with FG in it.

Look across the water. The Tories have been in power about the same time and they are on the cusp of an electoral drubbing they have not experienced in their 190-year history.

Given all that context, and their support in the recent elections, they are looking OK.

If they do OK in the GE, they could be in for another 5 year term. That is 4 terms. No one has done that in Ireland since Dev in the 1930's.

Not bad for a party in decline.

I see the SF decline thread has rattled a few people

Have FG declined since 2011 when they went into government? Yes

Have FG declined when after the last election they said they would go into opposition? No

Have they managed to still have two Taoiseach since a terrible election? Yes

Did they have a bad local election? No

Did they do massively better than predicted by all the so called experts? Yes

Bang away on the decline angle

Just watch the interviews after the local elections to see who is in decline, Simon laughing and joking. Other leaders struggling to find words and digging holes for themselves with stupid statements.

They could get there on their own if the transfers work out as well as in the local elections.

Then they could add on the Greens that are left (probably three to four) for extra margin.

In the European elections, FF and FG had 41.2% between them, in the local elections it was 45.9%. In the latter, the Greens 3.6% gave the government parties a total of 49.5%, pretty much enough to win an overall majority.

However, as I pointed out the Euros were more disappointing, and the combined government vote would be 46.6%, which would probably fall short. Incidentally, at 5.4% in the Euros, the Greens are not far off their general election 2020 performance of 7.1%. A new leader and some momentum could see them keep 6/7 of the 12.

A lot to play for. It all depends on what Sinn Fein do. Getting some decent policies instead of none, toning down the UI rhetoric which has no immediate meaning to anyone and dumping the old men with links to terrorism and they might come back.

The most interesting outcome of the local and European elections, is that if Sinn Fein continue to poll at 11%, a government of FF or FG with SD/Labour/Greens with some like-minded independent support is now mathematically possible. For example, Sinn Fein with 11%, FF with 18% and FG on 25% would make that scenario possible, with both FF and SF ending up in opposition. On the other hand, with SF on 14%, FF on 24%, government without FG is also possible with the SD/Labour in support. The Shinners on here would cry a river about being a mudguard though.

Politics suddenly got interesting again. Only six months ago FF/FG/other and FF/SF were the only two possible future governments. A lot more are now possible.