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The decline of SF?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    Accounting, customer service also.

    It'll take any driving job also.

    No housing crisis when there's high unemployment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    You have high expectations for AI, which at the moment the AI boom is based on a fancy online tool which people can ask questions to.

    In accounting machine learning has already been in play for years, will it reduce accountants much more? not a huge job loss

    Customer service has chat bots for donkey years, it will make them a little better but won't be mass replacement

    We are at least 10 year and more from AI driven cars, even then it has huge concerns over insurance etc and I doubt it will have a huge impact for closer to 20 years

    Maybe, if you are going to make predictions on AI, you might research it.

    You seem desperate for mass unemployment, not sure why anyone would be wishing for that, people losing their jobs etc



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    We'll have to see I guess.

    Self driving cars are already here. They're not 10 or 20 years away. You might want to research that.

    I'm not wishing for unemployment, just saying the housing crisis is a symptom of economic success and might be short lived.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    To have nobody driving the car is 10+ years away. I think you need to take your own advice

    Yes you are wishing for unemployment and a crash. Fairly common opinion to be honest, people hate others doing well or even worse doing better than them, the old Irish mentality of "bring them down a peg or two"

    If you think AI is going to drive that well you are sadly mistaken.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    It won't happen overnight. It'll be a transition with lots of speed bumps along the way, but it will happen eventually.

    We'll see how Waymo scale in next few years. They're already doing food delivery, the boot opens with a pizza inside. This might just be a trial though.

    I work in IT so obviously I'm not wishing for huge layoffs of IT workers, I'm just saying it could easily happen in next 5 years.

    I'm just predicting that the housing crisis will be over in 5 years cos of high unemployment.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,602 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Well, this is going to be a world wide issue. It will effect countries like China more than the West.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,897 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You need to change the mantra to catch up with the latest statistics. FG and FF have been clever, the Help to Buy scheme and others have created record numbers of first-time buyers. They are people that will consistently turn up to vote and turn up to vote for the stability that FF and FG offer.

    So the parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts will see the next generation buying houses like they did, thanks to FF and FG.

    Yes, in social housing areas, it is different, but they never voted for FF and FG, and they never tend to vote.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    This is how feel.

    The stability of FG and FF is too attractive for a lot of people who have a lot to lose.

    If you've appreciating assets, you're not going to risk it on socialists (I know SF aren't really socialists).

    Also if you look at a population pyramid of Ireland, there's a bulge of people from 35 to 50ish. The majority of these people will have bought their house and settled down.

    There's also a lot of talk recently about the transfer of wealth from the boomer generation who will be dying off now. This might help the next gen but property.

    All FG and FF have to do is win the majority of the middle class votes and working people who just want stability.

    I bet this will be their strategy.

    They can use Mary Lou's quote about €300,000 houses against her.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,897 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    What is also relevant to those people is the talk that Sinn Fein have made on capital taxes, increasing CGT, and abolishing CAT allowances.

    https://www.sinnfein.ie/a-fair-tax-system

    Their current policy on tax is thin to say the least, but also so vague as to make people fear tax increases.

    If you own a house in Dublin, you would be wise not to vote for Sinn Fein, as your descendants will be paying a lot of tax on it when you die.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    100%.

    It's difficult to foresee how big of a problem it will be right now.

    I think the major problem will be how quickly it could happen.

    In 10 years time truck drivers, taxi drivers and delivery drivers could be obsolete.

    That's a lot of jobs right there.

    Also how many people will bother buying a car if you can just get a robotaxi when you need it?

    This will take millions of car manufacturing and sales jobs in Europe. Germany's economy would collapse without it's car industry.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,897 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It's already happening. Nine businesses in the Blanchardstown area using drone delivery.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    Waymo is gradually scaling.

    We'll have to see where they are in 2 or 3 years.

    Will they just licence the technology globally? If so, it'll scale rapidly.

    There's so much research in self-driving right now, you'd assume 2 or 3 companies will be scaling rapidly within 5 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I was in the Blanchardstown fire station for an event and they ordered in just to show how it works, was interesting concept and it has a novelty value but even with the short distance from the centre to fire station they said when they tried to use previously the order was cold.

    The original claim was it would take any driving job, which is a huge list of jobs and hence why it will be 10 years + at a minimum.

    In terms of self driving technology, it is actually a Irish company(HQ in Ireland now) that I expect to win the race, Aptiv.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    They are doing it in the US again as well. People are still in the car

    To have a full driverless vehicle will be 10 years away



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭pureza


    You can get a driverless taxi in california,not sure about other states

    But they are definitely on the road in America



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    I think SF know they will do better at a GE. Anybody hoping for a left wing led coalition better hope they do. I predict they will get 16%. Which might not be enough. Personally because of their blanket acceptance of the IRA violence In the north I won't vote for them.

    But basically you vote FG/FF you are voting for the same **** health service but the only real way that will improve is radical reform plus higher taxes.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    Unfortunately though the atvastic them vs US is now unleashed. While the far right had a so so outing in the locals expect parties to be promoting dropping out of the migration pact.

    I don't think immigration is the biggest issue in the state or second one but in a lot of people's mind it is.

    Thus a lot of parties without a credible health or housing policy will be making headway



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Will be interesting next week to see the difference in the fortunes of SF in the election in N.I., considering their big disappointments in the elections here. Will the weak leadership of Michelle O'Neill - who would not take part even in a tv debate - and the ex head of the UK nurses union not being allowed, or unwilling, to condemn the sectarian murder of her fellow innocent nurses. Interesting times.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,191 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Different fortunes alright, as of Friday they are now the largest party in Westminster, Stormont and the councils in NI.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭pureza


    When 90% of voters,Id imagine go into polling stations in the North,whats on their mind is who is the strongest unionist or nationalist candidate or the one best placed depending on your flag, to unseat one or the other and to be fair aren't SF the biggest benificiary of that up North,the Republic's elections are chalk to their cheese,completely different,so no comparison,I'm shocked this has to be repeated so often ON AN IRISH POLITICS FORUM,no less

    It would seem tit for tat has invaded here and is spreading like japanese knot weed,to the deprivation of facts,pathrtic isn't it



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,207 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I suspect people wishing for recessions are mostly doing so because they believe it's the only way that they'll ever be able to own a house in this country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    A recession won't help with that, in fact the opposite



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,207 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Depends on people's individual circumstances. If they have a bullet proof job (say public sector) and decent savings then they might think they could ride it out. After all, that's what happened with many people after the 2008 crash.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Most public servants had a huge pay cut, the number of houses getting bought fell dramatically. Plus the ability to get money from the banks was incredibly hard



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,207 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    All of those things are true. However many public sector employees were able to get mortgages in that period. They represented the kind of low-risk long term option that banks were still comfortable with giving mortgages to during that time.

    Anyway we're getting beyond my original point which was basically to not attribute to malice what can instead be attributed to ruthless self interest. Whether that strategy is misguided is really besides the point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Oh I am aware plenty of people would love to see another crash, also plenty would love to see MNC move out of Ireland.

    Some people will never be happy unless the entire country is living in poverty



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,812 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    The vile abuse aimed at the Stoops and Cara Hunter by angry SF supporters for running in East Belfast is the height of irony considering this happened in 1986. Nationalists who rejected violence and terrorism (the overwhelming majority of nationalists in NI) are entitled to vote for the SDLP or indeed anyone else they choose.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    are entitled to vote for the SDLP

    Of course they are, but they don't.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,812 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    They returned two MPs. One in the city and hinterlands of Bloody Sunday, John Hume, and a place that rejected the bombings, shootings, rape, torture and disappearing of people carried out by the Provos and defended to this day by SF.



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