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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Not plain if they make a horses ass of your own costing I suppose.

    Far as I recall my capex figure was €166 Billion for just the offshore turbines and that was based on them all being fixed turbines, with the €200 Billion being a conservative figure imo for all the hydrogen add-ons. But as you want to be pedantic I`ll take you through the figues.

    £2.37 Milliom/MW is £2.37 Billion/GW. Converted to Euro +60% = €4.5 Billion/GW. Three quarters of that proposed 37GW is at that price (28 fixed) and the other quarter (9 floating) would be 50% more expensive €6.75 Billion/GW.

    €4.5 Billion x 28 =€126 Billion. €6.75 x 9 = €60.75 Billion. Total capital cost of turbines alone €186.75 Billion.

    Alternatively in the real world Northland the largest member of a consortium building a 1GW offshore wind farm for Taiwan estimate the cost for that fixed turbine wind farm at €6.5 Billion. That would leave this proposed 37 GW at €240.5 Billion if they were all fixed rather than 75% fixed and 25% floating.

    Now that I have been good enough to take the time to go through this with you step by step using verifiable credible sources, I await you doing likewise for the costs you posted here



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    It seems that renewables have led to this in a large part. I still think it is a good idea to have an independent source but am not against linking into an EU grid.

    https://balkangreenenergynews.com/acer-explosion-of-negative-electricity-prices-in-eu-in-2023/



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    For those that want to is a Gov. report on the subject on projected costs and benefits. BVG associates.

    Assets Government.ie



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    source: https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/seai-statistics/key-statistics/energy-use-overview/

    Irelands total primary energy requirement (TPER) is ~ 14514 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) and increasing each year.

    Take daily peak electricity consumption of ~5,000 MW (it varies seasonally, during a cold dark spell in Winter demand for electricity can reach ~7,000 MW). Let add extra demand and ignore datacenters AI growth requirements for the moment, How many wind turbines does the country need to build by 2030 to meet demand for 950,000 EVs by 2030 combined with 600,000 heat pumps?

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab




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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Electricity generation using diffuse and unreliable sources is easy when you engage in magic thinking. Here is something something else, this is what happens to electricity demand and wind solar generation when the dunkelflaute sets in across Western and central Europe, happens every Winter sometimes lasting for 2 weeks and it's bitterly cold. It does not matter how many solar panels or wind turbines installed, they don't work under those conditions.


    Wind turbine generation in this country can and does occasionally turn negative. This is why a backup system is needed, the capacity factor for solar in Ireland is ~10%, Wind capacity factor over a years ~30% and it varies massively across seasons and day to day. This is why your electricity bill will never be cheap, the more unreliable generation that is put on the grid the more complex and expensive it becomes to operate and manage.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Costs seem to vary greatly for wind generation depending on the source. This one I believe I quoted earlier and I will again and before anyone checks it is recent 2024 not 2022 as in the link. Quotes 1.3 million per MW for wind generation, that gives 1.3 Bn for 1GW and taking that further would result in 48Bn cost.

    https://weatherguardwind.com/how-much-does-wind-turbine-cost-worth-it/

    I'm sure our grid will need upgrading in any case and thsi will cost and we may benefit from EU money in such a strategic EU project.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Hence the need for greater interconnectness in the EU. Also the existing French Nuclear generation may be useful.



  • Registered Users Posts: 370 ✭✭gossamerfabric


    A low cost carrier has price sensitive customers so doubling the cost of the ticket reduces demand and service must be scaled back but your hidden motive is now clearer for all to see...you think you have found a service with an inelastic demand curve which can be milked to finance still more eco-boondoggles.

    The take away here is that the greens are a party of unlimited taxation.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,534 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    That's for simple wind turbines themselves. What about the array cables?

    What about the grid infrastructure? Near shore requires an offshore platform, transformers, AC cables, reactive power compensation, as well as boats to do marine surveys and maintenance. You won't get much of the 37GW within the near shore distances (10GW max) so it's further out you'll need to go and then you are into the world of HVDC. Basically, you need a Celtic Interconnector (€1.6Bn) for every 700MW. Your costs won't be long adding up!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Perhaps but much improvement is needed anyway. What is the alternative?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    So not a single verifiable figure from you after all the waffle and attempts to denegate those of other posters you spoofer.

    I do not know the journalist that article is credited to, but whoever she is I imagine her copy was barely legible due to laughter tear stains. I particulary enjoyed "The projected costs to households and businesses are based on modelling which predicts the technology cost of offshore wind will halve in price and that other countries will help with construction costs"

    Weeks before the price of offshore went through the roof we had posters on here, and on other threads, assuring us that due to "economy of scale" the costs were going to halve. Modelling is basically crystal ball gazing and has been shown to be as accurate. The part of that I really enjoyed, but I hope she put it in for a laugh, is that "other countries will help with constuction costs" If not then somebody in government has either lost their mind or they have become desperate seeing the cost of this insanity.

    In fairness to the journalist she did pull herself together to point out that the State`s entire capital budget is around 15 Bn, so the cost capital costs of turbines, hydrogen add-ons, grid upgrade and port upgrades would not be far short of 20 years of our entire capital budget. And that is without the further 2 years of our entire capital budget it would cost for cables to export this mythical energy. But again in fairness she did point it that it was a nonsense as did @machiavellianme, as well as pointing out that French nuclear is cheaper than the renewables we would have to offer. If those cables are going to do anything it will be to import French nuclear just to keep the lights on.

    She also rubbished the myth that Ryan and greens have been attempting to sell as part of their energy clusterfcuk making any sense of us becoming this world leader in hydrogen where Europe would be lining up to buy it from us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    I have shown the figures from sites you may not believe but I don't accept the 200Bn figure. You must remember that even if the costs are large it will still be spent over many years and will pay back. Even China is going with wind generation.

    Why wouldn't te EU help? They have in the past and they would be looking for carbon free energy too. Anyway the project is going ahead and there must be economies of scale eventually. What is the alternative to burn fossil fuels ad infinitum?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Denmark is also moving to a green wind powered future less reliant on fossil fuels that can be stopped by th elikes of Putin on a whim.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    What is the alternative? You cannot decouple from fossil fuels without dramatic falls in your standard of living, anyone insisting otherwise is laying the groundwork for a year zero dictatorship, whether they realise it, year zero is the logical outcome of "climate justice", an authoritarian system that imposes equality on the masses by restricting their access to energy.

    The future will be fossil fuels + whatever else is viable, transitions will happen over a hundred years. If you are interested take the time to read this from Vaclav Smil. I'm only half way through it at present, he goes through the numbers.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You haven`t shown anything from a credible verifiable source wheras I have provided you with two such sources, yet you do not believe them. Facts are you posted a load of waffle on offshore costs and when called on it you have nothing.

    The costs aren`t simply large they are suicidally financially unviable for a country with a population of 5 million and would leave us bankrupt long before completion. And what branch of economics dictates that there must be economy of scale eventually ?

    Try looking for a loan from your bank and when the manager tells you your product is financially unviable, tell him economy of scale will sort that out and see how that works out for you. The last time on here greens assured us that economy of scale would halve the cost of offshore costs rose by 60 - 70%

    Did you read the article you posted. If you did then why would the E.U. help as they will neither need our electricity as they are either generating their own cheaper, or getting cheaper nuclear from France and most probably Sweden. The same applies for the nonsense Ryan and green were peddling on hydrogen.

    China are not as dumb as we are putting all their eggs in a wind basket.

    They already have 55GW of nuclear, those 21 will add 24GW and they plan to add a further 70 that will add another 88 GW. Times to build, 5 -7 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,544 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    This is nutty.

    This scheme will cost a fortune. The only tangible benefit? We'll have a few new species of bird 😂



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Because it’s snake oil and there are multiple reports of costs going up greatly 50-70% in last year with companies on verge of bankruptcy, not helped by zero interest rate tap drying out



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,506 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Very few, if any, of previous "nature" related schemes on a wide scale have worked in this country. This will be no different. But, same as other schemes, the landowner will carry the blame. Good news is that many wind farms built on peatlands will now be under water, buildings on flood plains will be tore down to reverse the damage done to date



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    ”will now be underwater”

    Ah so that’s how government reaches 37GW offshore wind 😂



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Good point on flooding peatlands that are homes to wind farms. Do that and leave them there would be inviting another Ballybofey and Derrybrien.

    I`m not that familiar with those previous nature related schemes, but the old REPS schemes did at least appear to me to have done some good, but this new ACRES seems to be a total mess with the Department all over the place and unless a farmer has fairly substantial acreage the cost of becoming involved compared to what he or she would get from it after all the hassle would not be worth their while.

    To me this deal in the twilight days between two E.U. parliaments is very shoody and doesn`t say a lot for the E.U. as regards democracy. Especially when you read that "It had been expected one or two member states might be convinced to change positions, but could publicly not do so until after the European elections earlier this month".

    No naming of those countries in that article, so it makes me wonder who are these countries that changed their stance because their E.U. election showed a greater support for a green agenda than was there before that election.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,835 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Newstalk just reporting that Ryan is to stand down as leader of the party today. More to follow.

    On the Indo site too..

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/eamon-ryan-to-step-down-as-green-party-leader/a737848337.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 183 ✭✭Danny healy ray




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    He was useful in driving the Green Party into the ground and somehow managing to become even more hated than Sinn fein



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,506 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    I've a wind farm on peatland. I'm looking forward to claiming whatever compensation there is for closing the drains. Should be a good laugh!

    REPs was good, ACRES a shambles. The project in the Burren was excellent, but the dept. decided it wasn't and now that too is a shambles. There's been many others that have shown little to any improvements as per their goals, apart from devaluing land areas and causing issues for people living there (such as planning rejections for home upgrades, etc). Not to mention the farmer community who are obliged to improve infrastructure but are prevented from doing so, thus making them non compliant in multiple schemes now.

    The deal done yesterday was a joke. To me it stinks of the old parliament ramming it through. It should have been left to the new parliament to progress. It wouldn't have even passed if the Austrian minister hadn't gone on a solo run in opposition to the federalised regions of Austria and her coalition partners in government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 42 mammychicken


    And Eamonn is off into the sunset on his bike……….on with ya



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,100 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    if you're a green voter he hasn't been useless at all though, did what he said he'd do, something very rare in politics.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Figured, once FF members claimed his portfolio was too big the knives are out for him, the Greens have become a roadblock in government. The consequences of them being in government will be felt for the rest of the decade.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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