Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

the problem for SF after this elections is the voting blocks that were formed and few seems to be transferring to SF. FF and FG are probably looking at 40%+ between them if they go above 45% they will be withing striking distance of an overall majority. They transferred strongly to each other something SF supporters on this forum denied would happen a year ago. 40% with a solid transfer will mean they will be very near 80 seats. Labour, SD's and the Greens transferred to each other solidly at 10-12% vote share they sould hit 15+ seats and looking at transfers they will recieve prefence from FF&FG when they have no other canditate to vote for over SF and some indepents. Independents @20+% would be in the 25-35 seat bracket. Half of these are from the FF/FG gene pool.

SF could hit 20% or even slightly more but only PBPS give them a preference on transfers. if they only get 15% you are looking at seats in the 20 bracket, @20% maybe 30. everything can and will change between now and the autumn. but the dail will be going into recess in a few weeks until ealy September. it will be hard for SF to change momentum, not impossible but hard. house building is ramping up and there will be tax changes,regularisation of the one off SW payments.

SF need to get back into the high 20%'s to have a chance of being in government and hope its FG collapse not FF. I think they will struggle to do that.

why vote for a party that you are more or less guaranteed wouldn’t be able to form a government? People aren’t stupid (despite what Mary Lou thinks and lets slip) so are more likely to vote elsewhere with their protest vote. That’s the point I’m making.

As it stands it looks like FF/FG will remain in power along with a small party + independents. Houses are being built, outrage has moved onto people playing the Direct provision system and SF have lost their USP so unlikely to get populist/protest vote as things stand. People are sick off them talking about a result from 4 years ago so without some change in direction it is an uphill battle and even at that they have probably left it to late.

why vote for a party that you are more or less guaranteed wouldn’t be able to form a government? 

I'm sure there is a cohort of diehard FF and FG supporters who would love it if any serious opposition just crawled away and allowed them to continue use and abuse the smaller (and so far willing) parties in their coalitions.
Thankfully the ambition of some opposition parties stretches a bit further than having to make the best of a decimation after an election.

Labour and Social Democrats are on the way up, Sinn Fein are on the way down.

The electorate have begun to realise that they are serious politicians while Sinn Fein are not.

Of the current Labour TDs, only Brendan Howlin, who is retiring at the next general election, has held a full Ministry. So what rubbish are you posting about the "old guard"?

Progressive voters don't vote for Sinn Fein, of that I am certain. Until Sinn Fein get rid of the whiff of the "old guard" who still control the party from Belfast, they won't attract progressive voters, and even then, until they dial down the ethno-nationalist rhetoric, they still won't attract them.

So Labour and the Social Democrats ran 51 candidates between them in 2020 and that is nowhere near enough for most people to consider themselves serious parties even combined.

Sinn Fein ran 42 candidates in that election. I suppose that means we should treat them less seriously than a combined Labour/SD?

The Green Party leader is going because he stuck to what the voters wanted him to do even when populist public opinion when against him

Trying to play this off as a positive for SF is hilarious

They are the party who are begging either FF or FG to go into government with them and if it does happen SF will have to "become a mudguard"

What a clueless comment

Clueless is only the start of it.

Look at what the Greens have achieved over the lifetime of this government - Climate Action Act, public transport investment in Dart Plus, BusConnects etc., ahead of the game in retrofitting etc. Those are the raison d'etre of the Green Party movement.

Imagine if SF had been able to make even 1% of that progress on their main issue - a united Ireland - wouldn't that have been worth it just to become a mudguard? However, SF and their supporters are not really interested in achieving change, they are after power for the sake of power.

To be fair,I don't think he has the heart to go on

Greens aren't like any other party in the sense that,they will impliment unpopular things when in government and if they get back in,its a bonus

They run on a model of green wave,green bust,green wave again

Yep.
11.4% in 2019 EUs to 5.4% in the latest one…very poor performance.

SF supporters saying the Green are "mud guards", this is from the flip flop party that haven't a fu*king clue what their own policies are and have spent years now flip flopping around trying to work out what way the wind is blowing and then jump on that

If they do get into government it will be after begging another party and flip flopping around more on their policies which even Mary Lou admitted are a mess.

The comment is hilarious and shows a complete lack of awareness of what is going on and what has gone on before.

greens movements are fcuked alright, so that means your kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews are to, shur no harm, we ll be long gone by the time the real sh1t hits the fan…..

The same model,wave,bust,wave again applies if they went in with Sinn Féin

So yes it does matter

They are not a normal party (no offence @blanch152 )

None taken. I have acknowledged often that the Greens are not a normal party, they are quite clear about what they want to achieve in government, they set long-term goals and policies that they work towards achieving, and if that costs them votes, they are prepared for that in the long-term interests of the people. Much to admire about that kind of abnormality.

Now, if they were a party without policy, without ideals, controlled from another jurisdiction, as is the party subject of this thread, that abnormality is to be reviled.

Not a normal party is a nice cover story to cover the fact that they are no different to any of those who ended up the mudguards for dominant coalition party's.

MEPs gone,

vote halved,

Leader gone,

and we haven't even had a GE.